VZCZCXYZ0002
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUP #0177/01 0400719
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 090719Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0730

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000177 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA FOR P/DAS SHAPIRO; EUR/SCE FOR MICHELLE LABONTE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV HU
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR WHA P/DAS SHAPIRO'S VISIT TO 
HUNGARY 
 
 
Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Your visit coincides with the first parliamentary 
session of the year, which will likely bring renewed friction 
between the center-left coalition government of Prime 
Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany and the opposition, led by former 
PM Viktor Orban.  The running battle over the government's 
reform program prompted large demonstrations in the fall, and 
there is the broad sense that 2007 will be a year of economic 
challenges and political conflict. 
 
¶2.  (C) Foreign policy has been largely shielded from this 
rancorous debate, with strong consensus behind NATO and EU 
membership across the political spectrum, including support 
for Hungary's leadership of a Provincial Reconstruction Team 
in Afghanistan.  But interest in foreign affairs is neither 
broad nor deep.  Hungary has shown little interest in issues 
where it does not perceive a direct national interest; 
Budapest is often content to join the EU consensus ... and 
subject to criticism from the traditional EU powers when it 
does not.  This attitude contrasts sharply with the activism 
of the Hungarian Ambassador in Washington, and you should be 
prepared to find more yellow lights than green in your 
meetings here.  Your visit will help bring the GoH out of its 
shell and to encourage its constructive engagement in the 
international community by making the example of its 
transition available to others. 
 
¶3.  (C) Cuba is a rare issue on which Budapest has left the 
herd, moving quietly and cautiously to promote a democratic 
transition.  They regard their diplomatic presence in Havana 
and their long-standing ties to Cuba as their best assets in 
this endeavor, and have resisted initiatives they believe 
will win "applause from Washington" at the expense of their 
ability to engage on the ground.  Their modest steps to date 
have aroused considerable ire in Havana, including the recent 
withdrawal of the Cuban Ambassador.   They have also met with 
criticism from other EU capitals.  They have pinned 
considerable hopes on their ambassador-designate for Cuba, a 
former reporter with a strong regional background, who they 
believe will bring both a new activism and strong PD 
experience to their mission ... if he receives agrement.  You 
will have the opportunity to meet with him during your call 
at the MFA. 
 
¶4.  (C) Venezuela will be another issue of interest in your 
meetings.  The Hungarian opposition does include 
anti-American voices, and Chavez has captured the attention 
of those who are concerned by perceived American hegemony or 
nostalgic for the Non-Aligned Movement. 
 
¶5.  (C) Your schedule will include the following: 
 
Lunch with Ambassador Istvan Gyarmati: An informal but 
influential advisor to the both the MFA and MOD as well as 
Director of the International Center for Democratic 
Transition (ICDT), Gyarmati jokes that he "has so many hats I 
forget which one I'm wearing."  He is a committed 
trans-Atlanticist, but aware of the importance of keeping the 
ICDT distinct from US policy initiatives.  The ICDT was 
formed in 2005 to serve as a non-partisan source of expertise 
for countries in transition, and has become the second-larget 
NGO in Hungary, with projects planned in Europe, Asia, and 
Africa.  It has received strong endorsement from President 
Bush and Secretary Rice, but is now focusing on the 
challenges of implementing its ambitious agenda.  Its 
attempts to undertake projects in Cuba have been 
star-crossed, with the Cuban government protesting their 
project proposals and European partners objecting to both 
their focus on Cuba and their perceived collusion with the 
U.S.  The ICDT is accordingly shifting its focus to a less 
controversial proposal in Bolivia, but Gyarmati remains an 
excellent source of information regarding both the GoH and 
the broader European scene. 
 
Meeting with MPs Janos Horvath (FIDESZ) and Jozsef Kozma 
(MSZP):  Representing the opposition and the majority, 
respectively, Horvath and Kozma will welcome your overview of 
Latin American issues with particular focus on Cuba and 
Venezuela.  Both are members of the Parliamentary Foreign 
Affairs Committee, which has generally left its partisan 
disputes at the door and worked to establish an informed 
voice in the foreign policy debate.  Horvath, who ran for 
office in Indiana in the 1970s, is staunchly anti-communist 
... and rather long-winded.  Kozma is a mathematician by 
training and serves as one of the Committee's Deputy Chairs. 
Both have agreed to take time away from a meeting with their 
Bundestag counterparts and a formal committee hearing to meet 
with you. 
 
Meeting with MFA State Secretary Laszlo Varkonyi: An 
E 
 
extremely effective career diplomat, Varkonyi has been our 
primary contact on Cuba in keeping with his "extra-European 
Affairs" portfolio, and served until very recently as the 
MFA's de facto Political Director during the prolonged 
illness of the incumbent.  PM Gyurcsany, for example, 
deferred to Varkonyi's expertise in a meeting with ASEAN 
Ambassadors February 8.  He is planning to visit Mexico (and 
then the U.S.) in March to meet with the Hungarian 
Ambassadors to Mexico, the U.S., and Brazil and will welcome 
your take on the perceived "shift to the left" in the region. 
 (Note: Hungary maintains permanent diplomatic missions only 
in selected Latin American countries and has recently 
appointed a "roving Ambassador" to travel to five countries 
in the region periodically.  End note.)  He can review 
Hungary's current assessment of the situation in Cuba and the 
state of play within the EU.  He can also update on Hungary's 
plans to increase the size of its diplomatic mission in 
Havana and its ongoing projects to reach out to the 
opposition.  Janos Horvat, their Ambassadorial nominee for 
Cuba, will join this meeting. 
 
Remarks: We are finalizing plans for you to address a group 
of students specializing in foreign policy at Central 
European University (CEU), which also enjoys accreditation in 
New York State.  You should have some down time between your 
MFA meetings and this event.  The audience will include 
students from CEU, from Corvinus University's International 
Relations Department, from the North American Studies 
Department at Karoli Gaspar College, and from local American 
Fulbright scholars and recent IV recipients.  They will 
welcome your informal remarks on U.S. policy in Latin America 
and responses to questions from the audience.  We are also 
arranging your availability with  representatives of the 
media, likely with Peter Vass of the publication HVG, who has 
written on Cuba.  Questions will likely focus on Cuba, on 
perceptions of heightened anti-American sentiment in the 
region, and on whether the U.S. can play a robust 
international role given our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. 
 
 
Dinner at the Ambassador's Residence: We have invited key 
Ambassadors including Spanish Ambassador Rafael Valle 
Garagorri, Mexican Ambassador Jose Luis Martinez Hernandez, 
and Brazilian Ambassador Jose Augusto Lindgren Alves to 
discuss the full range of regional issues.  Our goal is to 
highlight the constructive role Hungary can play by offering 
its experience in political and economic transition and to 
demonstrate to the Spanish Ambassador that our position on 
Cuba in particular is consonant with regional views.  You 
will have time to meet with Ambassador Foley for drinks 
before the dinner in order to review your visit. 
 
¶6.  (U) We are working on the requests forwarded by your 
staff and look forward to your arrival. 
 
FOLEY