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RR RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSW #0144/01 0451640
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141640Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY BERN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3696
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2669

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BERN 000144 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SZ
SUBJECT: SWISS ELECTION YEAR -- WILL POLARIZATION AND 
CELEBRITY POLITICIANS ERODE THE STATUS QUO? 
 
 
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Summary 
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1.(U) Summary: Switzerland kicked off a busy election 
year on February 11, as the first of six scheduled 
cantonal elections was held in advance of the October 
21 federal elections.  Those predicting little change 
in the current party balance were vindicated as polling 
in Basel-Land witnessed a failed gambit by a Left-Green 
alliance to break out of their minority status.  Three 
questions about the future of Swiss politics will be 
answered in the coming eight months: 
 
-- Which of the two large ascendant parties, the right- 
populist Swiss Peoples Party (SVP) or the left-wing 
Social Democratic Party (SP), will edge out the other 
for predominance? 
 
-- Which of the two diminishing centrist parties, the 
Free Democrats (FDP) or Christian Peoples Party (CVP), 
will assume third place, and claim a second seat on the 
Federal Council? 
 
-- Will the Greens usurp traditional socialist and 
moderate-environmentalist support to become a 
significant player at the federal level? 
 
2.(U) At this point, the survival of the "magic 
formula" four-party consensus government appears the 
likely outcome.  However, a shift away from traditional 
party loyalties and towards the profiling of celebrity 
politicians (like Federal Councilors Christoph Blocher, 
Micheline Calmy-Rey, and Doris Leuthard) may lead to 
the demise of staQ, consensual politics -- though 
probably not yet.  End summary. 
 
------------------------------ 
Left Overreaches in Basel-Land 
------------------------------ 
 
3.(U) Over the past weekend, voters in the canton of 
Basel-Land (separate from Basel City) dashed earlier 
pollster prediction of a SP and Green victory. 
Instead, both the governing coalition and parliament 
remained in center-right hands.  Only one incumbent SP 
Minister was reelected alongside two FDP incumbents, 
while voters returned the two open seats to the CVP and 
SVP, as they were held before.  In the 90-seat cantonal 
parliament, the SP even lost three seats to its Green 
allies, while the FDP and SVP gained one seat each. 
 
4.(U) Damaging the Socialists-Greens was its decision 
to run four candidates for the five cabinet seats.  As 
occurred when the SVP reached too far in the 2006 Bern 
cantonal elections, the SP/Greens dispersed its vote 
among too many candidates.  This fact, and the loss of 
SP seats to the Greens, may play in both party's 
considerations as they look to upcoming elections in 
Vaud and Appenzel (March 11), Ticino and Luzerne (April 
1), and Zurich (April 15).  On the right, the SVP and 
FDP also need to decide whether they are stronger in 
alliance or on their own. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Rising of the Wings: SP on the Left; SVP on the Right 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
5.(U) Recent elections have seen political support flow 
toward the two flanks of the political spectrum, and 
both the SVP and the SP expect this trend to continue. 
As the two parties are neck-and-neck right now (27 vs. 
26 percent of the popular vote), the only question is 
which will have bragging rights as the top vote winner. 
 
6.(U) The right-populist SVP is boldly forecasting an 
additional hundred thousand supporter on its side. 
While moderate gains are expected in the Swiss-German 
part of the country, the SVP is primarily looking to 
the French speaking cantons for its largest gains, 
reinforcing its spectacular gains during the 2006 local 
elections.  Using the goat as a symbol for its 2007 
campaign trail, the party and its charismatic leader 
Justice Minister Christoph Blocher are touting the 
alternative vision they offer as against the Left, 
whose victory would bring "economic decline, more 
taxes, public debt, crime and misappropriated social 
benefits."  The party has picked up support in the wake 
of its high-profile campaigns to tighten immigration 
and asylum laws and hold-back EU integration, but the 
party is divided economically between its business- 
 
BERN 00000144  002 OF 003 
 
 
oriented urban faction and protectionist rural base. 
 
7.(U) The SP has the objective to become the largest 
party in Switzerland, with a plurality of both the 
Federal Council and Parliament.  The SP relies heavily 
on the popularity of Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy- 
Rey, currently encumbering the rotating presidency of 
the Swiss Confederation.  Her aura in the media should 
boost the chances of her party.  However, her close 
association with the European Union (the SP favors 
eventual Swiss membership) is a wildcard in this 
election year, as she his forced to react to criticism 
from EU officials targeting Swiss taxation policy and 
demanding greater cohesion fund contributions to new 
member states Romania and Bulgaria.  Energy is another 
contentious issue for the party as Energy Minister and 
SP stalwart Moritz Leuenberger faces the ideological 
no-win options of renewing Switzerland's older nuclear 
facilities or switching to fossil-fuel plants. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Race for Third Place: FDP or CVP? 
--------------------------------- 
 
8.(U) The 2003 elections brought the worst result in a 
hundred years to the Free Democrats and the Christian 
Peoples Party, with each party losing seven seats in 
the Lower House of Parliament.  The CVP's meager 14 
percent result finally forced it to cede its second 
cabinet seat to the ascendant SVP. 
 
9.(U) For the FDP, a turnaround in the 2007 elections 
will be crucial if it is to retain its two Federal 
Councilors, Pascal Couchepin (Social Affairs) and Hans- 
Rudolf Merz (Finance).  Pressure continues to mount on 
the shoulders of the countryQs centrist and pro- 
business party the Free Democrats (FDP).  The FDP's 
loss has been attributed to the failure of the managing 
elite to run the country effectively and the missteps 
it committed over the proposed increase ofQhe 
retirement age from 65 to 67.  Post-Enron corporate 
scandals in Switzerland, including the 2001 grounding 
of the former Swiss national airline Swissair, are 
still vivid in the populationQs memory. 
 
10.(U) The CVP was also tarred by the various corporate 
scandals.  Its political defeat in 2003 and subsequent 
loss of a second federal council seat triggered the 
replacement of CVP Justice Minister Ruth Metzler by SVP 
Christoph Blocher.  After a leadership shakeup, the CVP 
appears to be bouncing back under the stewardship of 
the young and dynamic Economics Minster Doris Leuthard, 
who has become a media icon in her own right. 
Appealing to the party's social activist wing, Leuthard 
has contrasted the large bonuses handed out to top 
corporate managers with the meager wage increases for 
most employees as endangering the social environment. 
Latest opinion polls show unemployment as a primary 
concern for Swiss voters despite the expected economic 
recovery (2.7 percent in 2006, 1.8 in 2007) and the 
countryQs low three percent unemployment rate.  If 
elections go well this time, the CVP is on track to 
claim its second cabinet seat back, perhaps at the 
expense of a declining FDP. 
 
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Greens: Not There Yet 
--------------------- 
 
11.(U) The Green outsiders will be carefully watched as 
the alliance with the SP increasingly comes under 
strain.  With the media focus on climate change, every 
Swiss party portrays itself as a friend of the 
environment.  The SP leadership recently infuriated the 
Greens with the claim that "anyone who supports 
environment votes socialist."  Green flirtation with 
left-fringe parties in the French speaking part of 
Switzerland also has led observers to wonder about the 
future of the SP-Green alliance.  In Vaud, one of the 
larger cantons, this rivalry blossomed after local 
greens opted for a go-it-alone strategy, thus dividing 
the left against a united right in its March cantonal 
elections.  At the national level, the Greens no longer 
see themselves as a sidekick for the SP.  Some of the 
Green leadersQ even hint at having their own Federal 
Council seat in the near future.  However, despite 
Green success at the local and cantonal level, where 
high profile figures have been elected, Green 
parliamentarians at the federal level still fail to 
differentiate themselves from the SPQs anti-capitalist 
rhetoric. 
 
BERN 00000144  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
------------------------------------ 
Background: A Swiss Political Primer 
------------------------------------ 
 
12.(U) Switzerland has a bicameral federal legislature 
modeled in 1848 after the American.  The Council of 
State (upper house) is composed of two members from 
each of the 20 full cantons (states), one from each of 
the six half cantons, to equal 46 seats.  The National 
Council is comprised of 200 seats, distributed 
proportionally by population.  Unlike the U.S. system, 
the executive is embodied not in an individual, but in 
a seven-member Federal Council (cabinet) with a 
rotating presidency assuming mostly ceremonial 
functions.  Under a 1959 agreement referred to as the 
"magic formula," the four major parties -- FDP, CVP, SP 
and SVP -- agreed to divvy up the seven Federal Council 
seats, with the three larger parties retain two seats 
each, the fourth party one. 
 
13.(U) The results of the 2003 general election gave 
the SVP about 27 percent of the lower house seats and 
the SP slightly less at 26 percent.  The historically 
predominant FDP fell to 20 percent and the CVP 
plummeted to 14 percent.  In the upper house, the two 
traditional centrist parties retained much of their 
historic strength, each retaining roughly a third of 
the seats, with the SVP and SP splitting the remainder. 
Parliament generally meets in three-week sessions, four 
times per year. 
 
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Comment 
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14.(U) Switzerland's consensus cabinet and militia 
parliament has translated into remarkable stability 
over the past 50 years.  Few expect significant changes 
in the coming elections.  This applies as well to most 
Swiss policies, including foreign policies of interest 
to the United States.  Following the 2007 elections, 
there are likely to be only marginal adjustments in the 
Switzerland's global profile, though we can hope to see 
modest progress on free trade and law enforcement 
cooperation. 
 
15.(U) In the long term, polarization toward the left 
and right wings, the decline of the centrist parties, 
the rise of the Greens, the decrease in lifelong party 
loyalties, and the trend toward personality-based 
politics, could undermine the viability of the "magic 
formula" consensus government and ultimately result in 
a more conventional coalition/opposition governing 
structure.  However, barring a major political 
upheaval, such a shift is unlikely this year. 
Coneway