VZCZCXRO8937
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #0728/01 0370833
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 060833Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4579
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000728 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017 
TAGS: PREL PHUM NSC BH TH
SUBJECT: BURMESE EXILE COMMUNITY STILL SEARCHING FOR A 
CONSOLIDATED STRATEGY 
 
Classified By: Political Officer J.R. Littlejohn, reason: 1.4 (b) and ( 
d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) In the aftermath of a failed UN Security Council 
resolution, members of the Burmese exile community are 
advocating a variety of strategies, including enhanced USG 
engagement with China to encourage inclusion of NLD and 
ethnic groups in the final phase of Burma's National 
Convention, establishing a mechanism similar to the Six-Party 
Talks focused on Burma, and requesting the international 
community to pressure the government of Burma (GOB) to use 
election monitors in any future referendum. Post finds the 
exile community has some ideas that appear a bit unrealistic. 
A consolidated approach is expected to emerge after a 
late-February 2007 meeting of the Strategy Coordinating 
Committees (SCC) consisting of all the NCUB member 
organizations and some ceasefire groups (septel). 
Increasingly concerned with the possibility of the Europeans 
softening their approach to Burma, members of the exile 
community are beefing up their shuttle diplomacy.  End 
Summary. 
 
NATIONAL CONVENTION 
------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) On January 29, David Taw, Chairman of the National 
Council for the Union of Burma Foreign Affairs Committee, and 
Dr. Lian H. Sakhong, General Secretary of the Ethnic 
Nationalities Council (ENC) told us they would like to see 
Burma's National Convention process opened to enable free 
discussion of all relevant issues, and include the NLD and 
ethnic groups in the constitutional drafting process. 
Specifically they would like to see the USG and China work 
together toward this goal. 
 
¶3.  (C) Taw said his contacts inside Burma suggest the NC 
will resume in May and this could be the final session.  He 
said the NCUB and ENC sometimes consult with 13 ceasefire 
groups attending the convention, specifically mentioning the 
New Mon State Party, Kachin Independence Organization, and 
the Shan State Army.  Taw said the 13 ceasefire groups he 
contacts are trying to find ways to introduce a federal 
construct into the process so ethnic groups have rights.  He 
mentioned that prior proposals have not received a response, 
but they hope their submissions will be addressed before any 
constitution is adopted.  Taw said ceasefire groups are 
frustrated with the brush-off their suggestions have received 
to date, which is one reason why many exile, ethnic, and 
pro-democracy groups have refused to legitimate the NC 
process by not participating in it. 
 
¶4. (C) Zaw Zaw Htun of Forum for Democracy in Burma (FDB) 
also separately expressed concerns with the outcome of the 
National Convention.  Htun said they would like the United 
States and the international community to begin thinking 
about a future election process.  Specifically, the FDB is 
urging international actors to push for a referendum that is 
organized by voting rather than public rally, and that 
includes international election monitors. According Htun, 
members of the exile community are concerned that the regime 
would hold a rally packed with members of the Union 
Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), a puppet 
organization staffed by senior leaders of the State Peace and 
Development Council (SPDC), which will rubberstamp the 
constitution. 
 
HOLDING THE SUPPORT BASE TOGETHER 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) In a January 25 conversation, Debbie Stothard, 
Coordinator of the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma 
(ALTSEAN-Burma) said the exile community is expanding its 
international diplomacy efforts.  Stothard said the exile 
community is comfortable with the support received from the 
United States and would like to see sanctions against the GOB 
continued.  However, she said, the exiles are increasingly 
worried about Europe. 
 
¶6.  (C) Taw and Sakhong singled out Germany as eager to 
change the European Union's level of engagement with the 
regime.  According to Taw, the Germans are concerned that 
past practices of freezing assets and limiting visas are not 
effective.  Sakhang believes the EU is pushing for 
humanitarian engagement with the regime.  Members of the NCUB 
flew to various European countries last week to encourage 
staying the current course on Burma. 
 
THE ASEAN INTERPARLIMENTARY MYANMAR CAUCUS (AIPMC) 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
BANGKOK 00000728  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C) Taw said the NCUB is focusing on the ASEAN 
Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus (AIPMC).  The NCUB would 
like ASEAN governments to take a tougher stance on the 
regime.  He said that the Foreign Affairs branch of the NCUB 
talks to MPs, but that governments often have a different 
stance from parliamentarians.  The NCUB hopes Singapore 
specifically will encourage MPs to join the Parliamentary 
Caucus on Burma.  Taw was less enthusiastic about Laos, 
Vietnam and Brunei because they have "no history of working 
with AIPMC." (Comment: Laos and Vietnam also have no history 
of advocating for democracy. End Comment.) 
 
SIX PARTY TALKS ON BURMA? 
------------------------ 
 
¶8. (C) The exile community has some ideas that appear to us 
very unrealistic. Sakhong suggested a new approach to 
enhancing opportunities for dialogue might be modeled after 
the Six Party Talks on North Korea.  He said this forum for 
engagement might produce a much needed opportunity for China 
to weigh in on a possible solution alongside the United 
States.  Like others, he emphasized the importance of 
engaging China in a solution on the current political stasis 
in Burma. 
 
¶9.  (C) Zaw Oo a member of the Zahu Development Institute 
said that he cannot completely endorse the idea of Six-Party 
Talks on Burma, because he is not sure who should be involved 
in such a multilateral setting.  However, he could see using 
this kind of framework to engage Burma with the USG playing a 
key role in building an international consensus (read: 
getting China to support any outcome). 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) Almost 20 years since the 1988 student uprising and 
the NLD's 1990 landslide election victory in Burma, exile 
groups are struggling to find a consolidated 
one-size-fits-China (and everyone else) strategy for bringing 
democratic change to Burma.  The National Convention, 
considered a sham process by most members of the exile 
community, is still viewed by some members of the NCUB and 
umbrella groups as the only game in town and these groups 
view gaining a foothold in the constitution's drafting and/or 
adoption period as an important step toward democratization. 
This will spark a strong negative reaction from the NLD and 
others. 
BOYCE