VZCZCXRO4646
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #0180/01 0531259
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 221259Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4339
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0813
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000180 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, INR/AA, AND DRL 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT:  CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM TO BE HELD APRIL 4 
 
 
ANTANANARI 00000180  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Government of Madagascar (GOM) has announced 
a Constitutional Referendum to be held April 4, 2007.  A 
hastily-convened committee is considering over 200 possible changes, 
and will soon make recommendations to the Council of Ministers, who 
will then decide which changes should be published and included in 
the referendum.  Civic leaders are calling for transparency and 
questioning the President's motives.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) A committee of nine magistrates and other notables was 
recently convened by the GOM to consider revisions of Madagascar's 
1992 Constitution (the Constitution was once previously amended by 
referendum in April 1998).  The Constitutional Revision Preparatory 
Committee is informally led by former High Constitutional Court 
(HCC) President and Senator Honore Rakotomanana and the Secretary 
General at the Presidency Noel Rakotondramboa.  Contacts among the 
nine members told Embassy staff they will not make any public 
statements or accept any meeting requests while they consider over 
200 submissions for possible changes received from the Government, 
political parties, and civil society during a short submission 
period that ended February 14. 
 
¶3. (U) According to press reports, the Committee will decide - 
behind closed doors - which of the proposed changes to the 
Constitution will be put to a referendum April 4.  While details are 
not confirmed, Post believes all changes would be considered 
together as a single up or down vote in the referendum; rather than 
allowing a separate vote on each change.  The Committee is expected 
to submit its recommendations to the Council of Ministers for a 
final decision on the list of referendum items by early March.  Only 
after that meeting will the referendum changes be published. 
 
¶4. (U) Speculation about proposed changes to be included in the 
referendum abounds in Antananarivo.  An incomplete and unconfirmed 
list of possible proposals includes: 
 
-- Abolishing the six-province structure, leaving behind the 22 
regions and the commune-level local government; thereby eliminating 
one layer of government; 
 
-- Formalizing the legal status of the 22 regions under the 
Constitution, to date led by Regional Chiefs named by the 
President; 
 
-- Abolishing the Senate, leaving the National Assembly as a 
unicameral legislature; 
 
-- Creating a requirement that candidates for the Presidency must be 
resident in Madagascar for six months prior to the vote; 
 
-- Eliminating the position of Prime Minister so that the President 
would be both Head of State and head of the government. 
 
Opposition Outspoken Against Referendum 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Predictably, opposition leaders have spoken out against the 
referendum process and about possible changes to the Constitution. 
Recent presidential candidates Lahiniriko and Herizo have made 
public statements calling for transparency and demanding to know 
what issues will be considered for the referendum.  An editorial in 
the opposition "Tribune" newspaper expressed concern about the 
rapidly-organized referendum process, and made the reasonable 
argument that most Malagasy will not have time to understand the 
implications of the issues at hand by April 4.  The editorial 
suggests the Committee is no more than a cover for President 
Ravalomanana to make his own changes to the Constitution.  Several 
observers argued the items up for referendum should have been 
published before the date of the vote was announced. 
 
¶6. (U) National Elections Observation Committee (KMF/CNOE) Secretary 
General Rakotoarison questioned the motivations of the President to 
call for a referendum, noting that previous changes to the 
Constitution typically consolidated and increased the power of the 
President.  Given that CNOE and other major NGOs expended their 
effort and resources on the December 3 election, they have had 
limited time or capacity to consider the referendum.  Civic leaders 
like CNOE and FFKM, a church coalition, have previously authored 
lengthy proposals to change the electoral code, but are not prepared 
to present changes to the Constitution. 
 
Government Intention to Expedite Development 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) There has been little government explanation or information 
about the Referendum, except to say in general that Constitutional 
changes are needed to accelerate the pace of economic development 
 
ANTANANARI 00000180  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
and implement the Madagascar Action Plan (MAP).  One official 
commented the intended changes would not increase the power of the 
President, but would decrease some powers elsewhere in Government at 
central and regional levels. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Until the Committee publishes the changes to be 
included in the April 4 referendum, it is difficult to conclude what 
the impact might be for Madagascar's governance and transparency. 
Viewed in a positive light, streamlining government, eliminated 
redundant layers, and improving the delivery of services could all 
enhance Madagascar's efforts at economic development and poverty 
reduction envisioned in the MAP.  Viewed skeptically, President 
Ravalomanana has a new five-year mandate in hand, and may be seeking 
to eliminate perceived obstacles to implementing his vision for 
Madagascar.  END COMMENT. 
 
MCGEE