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INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000128 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR F, AF/FO, NEA/FO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2017 
TAGS: EAID PTER PREL IR CN
SUBJECT: BUILDING A RELATIONSHIP WITH THE COMOROS 
 
REF: 05 PORT LOUIS 743 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The U.S. Government is missing the 
opportunity to build a strong relationship with the Union of 
the Comoros.  In light of the recently-completed Operational 
Plan process for the Comoros, Post considers that USD 100,000 
in security assistance is inadequate to seriously advance 
transformational diplomacy goals.  A modest investment of USD 
two million annually in basic health and education programs 
would have a real impact in this country of 700,000 people; 
although even that is barely half of the average per capita 
assistance that the U.S. provides in sub-Saharan Africa as a 
whole.  Comoros has in large part been unrewarded for 
consistent support for American interests, including former 
President Azali expelling the Islamic NGO al-Haramain for 
suspected ties to extremists and the Government's cooperation 
in the Rewards for Justice Program in search of Comoran-born 
terrorist Harun Fazul.  Young Comorans, finding few 
opportunities at home, flee to Madagascar, Mayotte, or France 
- those who stay behind, bored and unemployed, are offered 
scant hope in schools funded by Iran and Saudi Arabia.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
The Status Quo Scenario 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (C) Under the just-completed Operational Plan, current 
U.S. assistance is limited to USD 100,000 for military 
training.  This is dwarfed by contributions from Iran, Libya, 
Saudi Arabia, and China, who steadily gain influence in the 
Comoros.  Iran, in particular, has long courted and funded 
the cleric, and now Union President, Ahmed Abdallah Sambi. 
The pragmatic President, who insists no "conditions" would be 
accepted in exchange for Iran's financial assistance, quickly 
saw Western donor pledges of over USD 200 million evaporate 
after his election last year (Reftel).  A devout Muslim, 
though not radical, Sambi is quickly emerging as an Iranian 
ally in the Indian Ocean region.  Foreign-funded "madrasa" 
schools function throughout Comoros, although reportedly they 
are not allowed to teach extremism.  Comoran Muslim elders, 
unanimously peaceful, frequently express concern about these 
schools, and about Comorans who return from Islamic education 
abroad.  Terrorist suspect Harun Fazul became radical after 
he left Comoros for Sudan and the Afghan War; the next Fazul, 
among thousands of bored and unemployed Comorans, could be 
home grown. 
 
A Minimal Funding Scenario 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3. (C) Post believes Sambi's efforts to improve the health 
and education of his desperately impoverished people are 
sincere.  In governing justly, promoting economic freedom, 
and investing in people, Sambi is making efforts to move in 
the right direction, although slowly given that his 
government is bankrupt.  Post is already convinced, based on 
Sambi's policies, that Comoros deserves a fair hearing from 
Washington policymakers for consideration for AGOA and MCC 
eligibility.  From virtually zero assistance, U.S. aid to 
Comoros should immediately be increased to USD two million 
annually, representing modest per capita funding of USD 2.86 
for about 700,000 Comorans.  As such, this is still barely 
half of the sub-Saharan African average for the U.S. (USD 
5.51 in 2005 according to OECD figures). 
 
¶4. (C) To date, Comoros has earned at least this level of 
support for its commitment to supporting U.S. interests. 
Former President Azali expelled the extremist-connected 
al-Haramain NGO at the request of the USG.  The Comoros 
cooperates fully in the Rewards for Justice Program in the 
hunt for Harun Fazul.  Western rhetoric promised that 
assistance would come when Comoros was stable and free and 
Sambi's May 2006 inauguration marked the first peaceful and 
democratic transition since independence in 1975.  Those 
promises, so eloquently articulated, remain empty. 
 
¶5. (C) In December 2005, at the Port Louis donor's 
conference, the United States pledged USD 2.6 million in 
assistance to Comoros for dispersal in 2006 (Reftel).  A 
subsequent diversion to Lebanon in 2006 broke the promise. 
Iran has quickly filled the void, signing an agreement to 
provide training exchanges, vessels and other materials to 
Comoros.  To further solidify their influence, we have heard 
that Iran is in the advanced stages of planning to relocate 
their Madagascar Embassy to the Comoran capital of Moroni. 
 
The Risk:  Comoros Returns to Chaos 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶6. (C) Sambi faces enormous challenges.  He inherited an 
empty treasury and a substantial backlog of salary debt to 
teachers and civil servants.  Taxi drivers have gone on 
strike because the roads are not being repaired; hospital 
employees are currently on strike because basic supplies, 
such as oxygen, are unavailable; full payment of teacher 
salaries - a promise Sambi made on entering office - remains 
a future goal.  In addition, there is considerable tension 
between the Union government and the authorities on each 
individual island with the issue of their relative 
competencies still unresolved.  The Comoros is emerging from 
a period of political and economic chaos and, for all the 
hopeful signs, there is no guarantee that it will not slip 
back into that maelstrom.  It is clearly in the U.S. interest 
 
to make an effort to prevent that outcome. 
 
The Reward:  A Foreign Policy Success 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7. (C) Comorans enthusiastically welcomed the modest USD 
280,000 education program launched last week (from FY 2005 
ESF resources).  This program to create distance learning 
materials for teachers could easily be quadrupled to provide 
much-needed professional development for educators.  Basic 
materials and facilities are needed.  In health, malaria is 
the scourge of Comoros, on average affecting every person 
twice a year.  A simple program in cooperation with UN 
agencies to provide treated nets, training for their 
installation, and spraying the tiny land area of the 
archipelago nation would greatly reduce and could potentially 
eradicate malaria in the Comoros.  Capacity is readily 
available to scale assistance up dramatically. 
 
¶8. (C) Comoros is a neglected pro-American poor Islamic 
democracy, led by a devout Muslim in conservative dress and 
turban who repeatedly asks for American friendship, a renewed 
Peace Corps presence, and economic opportunity for his 
people.  Sambi appears to be irritated by the control his 
Iranian friends seek to exert, but at present he has few 
alternatives.  Sambi speaks passionately of the positive 
values of Islam.  He rails against extremists who disgrace 
Islam with violence and hate; the tiny minority who put 
forward a "false face of Islam." 
 
¶9. (C) At a bargain price of USD two million per year, the 
United States will gain a Muslim democratic ally in the 
Comoros.  The Comoros proximity to the Horn of Africa, its 
past history of having spawned a notorious al-Qaeda 
terrorist, and Iran's clear effort to gain a political 
toe-hold in the island, only increases the value of this 
simple investment. 
 
McGEE