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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3595
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6142
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8355
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 8331
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1613
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9847
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7370
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0663
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5583
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000012 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2027 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CHEN'S NEW YEAR'S ADDRESS: STANDARD 
PRO-INDEPENDENCE RHETORIC BUT NO "SURPRISES" 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang, 
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: In his annual New Year's address, President 
Chen Shui-bian discussed Taiwan's status separate from the 
PRC, economic development, cross-Strait economic policy, 
social welfare, and democratization, and he listed the major 
accomplishments of his administration.  Chen defended 
established policies and well-known views, citing as evidence 
the record of his administration and selected public opinion 
polls.  His speech contained no new "surprises," and he 
avoided a number of controversial topics, including the 
sensitive issue of constitutional revision.  Dismissing the 
"illusory framework of 'one China' and 'unification with 
China'" promoted by previous KMT administrations, Chen 
claimed credit for returning the right to decide Taiwan's 
future to the people of Taiwan.  Chen confirmed current 
cross-Strait gradualist economic policies.  End Summary. 
 
Independence-Related Themes 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In the opening section of his January 1 address, 
Chen claimed credit for taking steps to return to Taiwan's 
people the right to determine Taiwan's destiny, breaking out 
of the "illusory framework of 'one China' and 'unification 
with China'" that had been promoted by previous Kuomintang 
administrations.  These steps included holding Taiwan's first 
national referendum in 2004, and Chen's declaration last 
February that "the National Unification Council had ceased to 
function and the National Unification Guidelines had ceased 
to apply."  Chen cited polls which he said indicated a 
substantial rise since 2000 in people's self-identification 
as Taiwanese rather than Chinese or both Taiwanese and 
Chinese.  Chen also stated: "Our country, Taiwan, has a total 
land area of 36,000 square kilometers.  The sovereignty of 
Taiwan belongs to its 23 million people, not to the PRC. 
Only the people of Taiwan have the right to decide Taiwan's 
future.  Meanwhile, Taiwan is a part of the world, not of 
China." 
 
Cross-Strait Economic Policy 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Chen reaffirmed the more restrictive cross-Strait 
economic policy formulation he first announced in his New 
Year's address last year: "active management, effective 
opening," which contrasted with the previous formulation of 
"active opening, effective management."  Chen cited selected 
statistics on economic performance and public opinion polls 
as justification for continuing his "active management, 
effective opening" policy.  According to Chen, "the 
government is of one mind (on this issue), guided solely by 
the imperatives to put Taiwan first and strengthen 
Taiwan-centric consciousness."  Departing from his prepared 
text, Chen stressed, "There is no such thing as a Su 
revisionist path (alluding to speculation that Premier Su 
Tseng-chang is taking the initiative to relax restrictions on 
 
SIPDIS 
economic relations with China)." 
 
Democracy and Other Topics 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) After discussing sustainable economic development 
and social equity and welfare policies, Chen turned to the 
need to deal with the legacies of Taiwan's authoritarian 
past, including "vestiges of ideological and political dogmas 
based on a conceptual "Great China," idolization of former 
authoritarian rulers, and major problems of 'transitional 
justice' such as illegally acquired (KMT) party assets." 
Chen expressed hope for stepped up activities this year to 
commemorate the 60th anniversary of the February 28th 
incident (in which KMT troops deployed from the Mainland 
forcibly put down a Taiwanese uprising against a repressive 
KMT government).  To help spread democracy, Chen announced 
plans to invite former national leaders of new democracies in 
Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America to participate in the 
launch of a new "Global Forum on New Democracies." 
 
 
TAIPEI 00000012  002 OF 002 
 
 
Chen's Major Accomplishments 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In the final section of his speech, Chen listed 
what he viewed as his administration's most important 
accomplishments since coming into power in 2000.  These 
included the completion of several major projects: the 
world's tallest building (Taipei 101), the world's fifth 
longest tunnel, and the Taiwan High-Speed Railway.  Chen also 
cited infrastructure projects and various policy 
achievements, such as establishment of a new labor pension 
scheme, nationalization of the military, ensuring an 
independent judiciary, and withdrawal of political parties, 
government, and the military from ownership or control over 
electronic media. 
 
Reactions to Chen's Speech 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Reactions to Chen's speech have been relatively 
limited.  The KMT charged Chen with using a new exposition of 
Taiwan independence to "dope and kidnap" the Deep Green, the 
DPP party, and the four potential DPP presidential 
candidates, in hopes of forcing the "independence option" on 
the Taiwan people.  Some KMT legislators criticized Chen for 
ducking the issue of the corruption scandals surrounding his 
administration and family.  The greatest attention, however, 
has been focused on Chen's dismissal of "Su revisionism." 
Some have suggested this may be a warning to Premier Su not 
to go too fast in cross-Strait opening or even the beginning 
of a move to pressure Su to step down.  Others have suggested 
Chen wanted to show he is in charge of the government's 
cross-Strait policy and that Su is not, and cannot, pursue 
different policies.  Some politicians have even argued that 
Chen's rhetoric serves as political cover with the Deep Green 
as the DPP government continues to pursue cross-Strait 
opening. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Chen's rhetoric on Taiwan's status is an appeal to 
the Deep Green base of independence fundamentalists, the key 
bastion of political support he has relied on since being 
weakened by corruption scandals.  There is little if anything 
new in Chen's rhetoric, however, as he has made very similar 
statements in a variety of previous speeches and press 
interviews.  Unlike his 2006 New Year's address, this year 
Chen avoided the most sensitive programmatic issues, such as 
constitutional revision plans.  Chen's relative restraint 
most probably reflects a desire to avoid antagonizing both 
the U.S. and the pragmatic wing within his own party.  We 
will of course need to continue closely monitoring Chen's 
statements and also the DPP's actions on constitutional 
revision over the coming weeks and months. 
 
 
WANG