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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0338

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000293 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017 
TAGS: PREL BY SF
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA PRESSURES FNL TO JOIN JVMM FEBRUARY 10 
 
REF: A. PRETORIA 154 
 
     ¶B. BUJUMBURA 15 
 
Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Catherine Kay.  Reasons 1.4(b 
) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) South African Burundi Mediator Minister Charles 
Nqakula met Palipehutu-FNL leader Agathon Rwasa in Dar es 
Salaam the weekend of January 13 and pressured the FNL to 
join the Joint Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JVMM), 
according to ISS analyst Jan van Eck.  Van Eck, who traveled 
to Dar es Salaam for the Nqakula meeting, told PolOff that 
Rwasa and the FNL leadership resented the "strong-arm" South 
African tactics, but felt they had no choice but to agree to 
attend the next JVMM meeting on February 10.  The Government 
of Burundi is to release the FNL delegates assigned to the 
JVMM on January 27, addressing one of the major FNL 
objections. 
 
¶2. (C) In the meeting with Nqakula, the FNL leadership 
highlighted the problem of food for their combatants, who are 
becoming increasingly impatient.  According to van Eck, 
Nqakula flatly rejected the FNL request for food assistance. 
In van Eck's opinion, the lack of food could result in an 
increased instability in rural Burundi as FNL combatants 
"find" food themselves through road-blocks, theft, and 
"taxation" of peasants.  To address this issue, van Eck is 
working with AU Burundi Special Representative Mamadou Bah to 
bring FNL Spokesman Pasteur Habimana to Bujumbura to meet 
with the GOB and JVMM.  Van Eck pointed out that the GOB 
could provide food to the FNL combatants, as they did with 
the FDD, even before they enter demobilization sites. 
 
¶3. (C) On the growing tensions within the CNDD-FDD, van Eck 
argued that the rebellion against Hussein Radjabu has been a 
"long time coming."  He understands that two-thirds of the 
party has voted to hold a special meeting in mid-February, 
which would result in Radjabu's removal as party leader.  Van 
Eck believes this could "loosen up" the political atmosphere 
in Burundi, which could impact positively on the FNL peace 
process. 
 
¶4. (C) COMMENT:  We understand from several sources that 
South Africa is increasingly frustrated with the slow pace of 
the FNL peace process.  We believe Nqakula and Great Lakes 
Envoy Kingsley Mamabolo will intensify the pressure on the 
FNL to implement the September Ceasefire Agreement by joining 
the JVMM and moving their combatants into demobilization 
camps.  South Africa has invested tremendous energy and 
resources in the Burundi peace process -- they continue to 
have some 850 troops in Burundi under an AU mandate -- and 
want to tie up the FNL "loose end."  Van Eck himself remains 
controversial in South African circles.  He has also devoted 
years to bringing peace to Burundi, but is so openly 
sympathetic to the FNL that some SAG officials view him as an 
impediment to peace rather than a useful liaison.  END 
COMMENT. 
BOST