VZCZCXRO7639
RR RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHFR #0001/01 0030555
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 030555Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3977
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHMRE/AMCONSUL MARSEILLE 1481
RUEHSR/AMCONSUL STRASBOURG 0289

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000001 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/PPD, EUR/WE, INR, R 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC PREL KPAO FR
SUBJECT:  WEEKLY MEDIA WRAP-UP: SOMALIA, THE ETHIOPIAN OFFENSIVE; 
DEATH SENTENCE FOR SADDAM HUSSEIN; MIDDLE EAST A "WASTED" YEAR; IRAN 
CHALLENGES INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. DECEMBER 29, 2006. 
 
 
PARIS 00000001  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) The conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia, conducted with 
alleged "tacit" or "explicit" U.S. support dominated the 
international news in France this week.  The French press denounced 
the pending execution of Saddam Hussein and complained that he is 
being put to death before being tried for the Anfal killings of 
Kurds.  Two opinion pieces summarized the situation in the Middle 
East at the close of 2006 in dailies of record right-of-center Le 
Figaro and left-of-center Le Monde.  Both argued that the standstill 
in two-state negotiations was due to a "crisis of leadership" in 
Israel as well as among the Palestinians.  On December 26, 
left-of-center Le Monde quoting Iranian president Ahmadinejad who 
insisted that "Iran is a nuclear country," concluded that "Teheran 
is sticking to its guns and will not abandon its nuclear program." 
End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------- 
SOMALIA, THE ETHIPOIAN OFFENSIVE 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The editorial by Pierre Haski in left-wing Liberation 
December 26, entitled "The Decline," noted that there were "two ways 
of analyzing the war that has broken out between Somalia and 
Ethiopia.  One is ideological, with a new front open in the war on 
terrorism and American support for a Christian Ethiopia to stop the 
rise of a new Afghanistan [in Somalia], a possible haven for al 
Qaida and international terrorism...  The other is more realistic. 
Ethiopia, classed 170th out of 177 countries in terms of development 
by the UN, is waging a war against another country, the state of 
decline of which makes it irrelevant statistically for the UN... 
Somalia is emblematic of a failed state...  This war will do nothing 
more than further accentuate the suffering and poverty in Somalia... 
and points to the failure of the international efforts of the 
1990s." 
 
¶3. (U) On December 27 in right-of-center Le Figaro, Arnaud de la 
Grange called Somalia an "ideal haven for al Qaida."  La Grange 
noted that "Recently a French intelligence source expressed concern 
over the institutionalized chaos in Somalia...  For Washington it is 
clear that al Qaida is already well-rooted in Somalia... But EU 
intelligence sources say that the situation is not so clear cut, 
even if they agree that the threat is very real...  In order to 
carry out the fight against terrorism in the region, the Americans 
set up camp in Djibouti after 9/11.  But with the exception of a few 
CIA forays, amateurish at that, Somalia remains marginalized in 
terms of its threat potential according to Washington; just like 
Afghanistan after the Cold War." 
 
¶4. (U) Left-of-center Le Monde reported Washington's alleged "tacit" 
support for Ethiopia's military intervention.  "When General 
Abizaid... was in Addis-Ababa at the beginning of the month, he 
warned government leaders of the humanitarian consequences of an 
invasion in Somalia, but did not call for the withdrawal of 
Ethiopian troops...  Was the U.S. wise to choose sides so clearly? 
Did it not over-evaluate the threat posed by the Islamic 
tribunals... In any event, many experts are denouncing Washington's 
support for the Ethiopian regime in the name of the war on 
terrorism." 
 
¶5. (U) By December 29, the front page of Le Monde was announcing the 
retreat of the Islamist combatants from Mogadishu and the unsigned 
editorial noted that "In just one week the Ethiopian army and the 
Somali government forces have turned the situation around...  From 
the international standpoint, the U.S., which has always supported 
Ethiopia, sees the defeat of the Somali Islamists as secondary with 
regard to Afghanistan or Iraq, but nonetheless significant in the 
war on terrorism...  It is too soon to say what lessons can be drawn 
form the fighting in Somalia, but without a determined international 
effort, war will become the norm, and peace ephemeral." 
 
--------------------------------- 
DEATH SENTENCE FOR SADDAM HUSSEIN 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Right-of-center Le Figaro's December 27 headline announced 
that "Saddam Hussein will be executed."  Le Figaro reported that 
"the fallen Iraqi dictator is expected to be hanged within thirty 
days...  His execution will in effect mean that he cannot be tried 
in person for the military campaign in Anfal in 1987 and 1988 in the 
northern part of Kurdistan.  It was during this raid that a chemical 
attack on Halabja killed some 5000 people, three quarters of whom 
 
PARIS 00000001  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
were women and children...  Many members of the Kurdish community, 
including Iraqi president Jalal Talabani, have said that Saddam 
Hussein should not be executed before the Anfal trial but the Shiite 
government, elected during the last round of voting, intends to 
eliminate Saddam Hussein as quickly as possible in order to 
establish its power made shaky by the civil war...  Saddam Hussein 
will therefore not be able to explain his actions at the time of the 
Anfal raid, when Iraq was fighting Iran, spurred on by Europe and 
the U.S." 
 
¶7. (U) The December 28 unsigned editorial in left-of-center Le Monde 
claimed that "the sentence has been rejected by the United Nations 
and all of the Human Rights organizations...  History will remember 
that the toppling, the arrest as well as the trial of the former 
tyrant and his acolytes were from beginning to end an American 
affair.  Yet there is no doubt that the sentence pronounced by the 
Iraqi court is a reflection of the desire of a vast majority of the 
Iraqi people... It is the victors' justice that has won out... and 
many will bemoan the fact that Saddam Hussein will be hanged for one 
of his lesser crimes." 
 
------------------------------ 
MIDDLE EAST -- "A WASTED YEAR" 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (U) On December 28, Pierre Rousselin's editorial in 
right-of-center Le Figaro lamented that "A little over a year ago, 
Ariel Sharon was congratulating himself for the successful 
withdrawal from Gaza and had let it be known that Israel could do 
the same in the West Bank.  The Palestinians, good students of 
George W. Bush's 'democratization' plans for the Middle East, were 
on the verge of voting for the first post-Arafat parliament.  With 
the benefit of hindsight over the last twelve months, one can see 
the distressing state that the Israeli-Palestinian situation is in. 
Gaza is on the brink of civil war... and Ehoud Olmert, with no 
coherent policy, is weakened by his failed war against Hezbollah. 
In the backdrop, chaos reigns in Iraq, the Lebanese crisis worsens 
and Iran is rising in power.  American diplomacy alone has the means 
necessary to act and yet appears to have thrown in the towel, 
leaving the Israelis and the Palestinians in a face-off." 
 
¶9. (U) A December 28 op-ed by Gilles Paris in left-of-center Le 
Monde discussed the "crisis" of Palestian leadership.  "The death of 
Yasser Arafat left a void that neither his successor nor his 
Islamist detractors have been able to fill...  Each statement on the 
part of the Americans in support of Mahmoud Abbas serves to fuel 
criticism that he is at best Washington's puppet and at worst a 
collaborator.  Indeed this support has no concrete manifestation... 
and the situation in the Middle East has never been worse...  As for 
Hamas, it is boycotted by the U.S. and the EU, and regarded with 
circumspection by the major Arab countries that fear the same rise 
to power of the Islamists in their own countries.  Hamas cannot 
count on those who today appear to be its best allies... they are 
merely one more card in Iran's game in the Middle East." 
 
------------------------------------------- 
IRAN CHALLENGES THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The December 25 headline in right-of-center Le Figaro 
stated that "Iran is Defying the UN."  Pierre Rousselin's claimed 
that "Teheran's reaction to the UN Resolution is more significant 
than the Resolution itself... and this time Iran is not just defying 
the U.S. or the West, but the entire international community... 
While the U.S. is rethinking its strategy in Iraq, the regime of the 
Mullahs feels that it is in a position of force...  But Iran must 
make a fundamental choice.  If it decides to bypass the 
[Non-Proliferation Treaty] it would be making a dire mistake.  It 
would call into question the strategic balance all the way to Europe 
or Asia.  The passing of Resolution 1737 shows that neither Russia 
nor China, no more so than the West, can accept this." 
HOFMANN