VZCZCXRO7475
OO RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #5408/01 0021733
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 021733Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6276
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA  IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 005408 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/RSA, AND A/S FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2026 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC MOPS SO ET KE
SUBJECT: IN THE CIC'S WAKE, WARLORDS SEEK TO REASSERT THEIR 
INFLUENCE IN SOMALIA 
 
REF: NAIROBI 5405 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary and comment:  Following the swift withdrawal 
of CIC forces from central and southern Somalia, several of 
Somalia's more notorious warlords are seeking to reassert 
their influence.  The resurging warlords are reportedly 
assuming control of the weapons turned over by the CIC to the 
sub-clans of Mogadishu.  While we continue to monitor the 
return of warlords and the attendant threat of a return to 
warlordism, it will be difficult to discern which weapons and 
technicals (battlewagons) are under the control of the 
ENDF/TFG and which are under the control of the 
sub-clans/warlord militias.  End Summary and comment. 
 
¶2. (C) There are numerous reports that several warlords have 
returned (or are planning to return) and are asserting their 
influence. 
 
¶3. (C) Mohamed Qanyare Afra, of the Hawiye/Murosade has 
regained control of the area of Daynile, in northwest 
Mogadishu. Qanyare previously lost control of Daynile in June 
2006 to Abu Quteyba.  He then fled to the northwest, spent 
some time in Addis Ababa, and eventually settled in Baidoa, 
biding his time.  Qanyare is the former TFG Minister for 
Defense.  He lost his parliamentary seat when he joined the 
Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counterterrorism 
(ARPFAT). Qanyare has the reputation of being the smartest, 
most politically astute warlord.  he had supposedly 
maintained his intelligence and security networks in 
Mogadishu.  He is single-minded, focused on returning to a 
position of power and influence and of destroying the 
Islamists whom he views as a threat to his position. 
 
¶4. (C) Mohamed Omar Habeb Mohamed Dheere (variant. Dhere) of 
the Hawiye/Abgaal/Warsengeli sub-clan is a wealthy and 
well-connected businessman/warlord, recently re-installed in 
Jowhar.  Dheere ceded his parliamentary seat in favor of 
Gedi, thereby allowing Gedi to become prime minister.  Jowhar 
is Dheere's main area of influence, where he provided safe 
haven to the TFG from May 2005 until it relocated to Baidoa 
in early 2006.  After Jowhar fell to the CIC, Dheere traveled 
to Addis, among other places. 
 
¶5. (C) Bashir Rage may be reasserting his influence through 
his cousin (name unknown).  Rage, of the 
Hawiye/Abgaal/Warsengeli Sub-clan, was part of the ARPFAT. 
He controlled the lucrative port of El Ma'an until he was 
displaced by the CIC.  Rage is rumored to be residing in 
Uganda, following his ousting by the CIC.  His cousin is said 
to have taken control of 172 technicals.  While Rage may have 
political ambitions, the size of his support base may not be 
broad enough to support such ambitions. 
 
¶6. (C) Abdi Nur Siyad (AKA "Abdi Wa'al") of the Hawiye/Haber 
Gedir/Ayr Sub-clan, a former member of ARPFAT, is also 
believed to be reasserting his power in Mogadishu.  Siyad is 
believed to have played an instrumental role in instigating 
the fighting between the ARPFAT and the CIC in May 2006. 
 
¶7. (C) Abdi Hassan Awale Qeybdid (AKA "Abdi Qeybdid") of the 
Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Sa'ad sub-clan, plans to return to 
reassert his influence in his traditional base in Sa'ad 
neighborhoods in Mogadishu.  Abdi Qeybdid was the last 
warlord to hold out against the CIC, battling the CIC in 
Mogadishu and then continuing in Galcayo following his 
retreat.  After the surrender of his weapons to the CIC, he 
retreated to Ethiopia. 
 
¶8. (C) Colonel Barre Adan Shire Hirale, of the 
Daarood/Marehan sub-clan, is likely to enjoy success in 
reconsolidating his power in the immediate port area of 
Kismaayo.  Hirale returned to Kismaayo on January 1, 2007 
with the Ethiopian forces.  Hirale is the former chairman of 
the Jubba Valley Alliance, a cross clan alliance which 
controlled much of Kismaayo city, port, and environs prior to 
Kismaayo's fall to the CIC in early October 2006.  He is the 
current TFG Minister for Defense, replacing Qanyare when he 
lost his seat due to his role in the ARPFAT. 
 
¶9. (C) And lastly, the son of former warlord  Mohamed Farah 
Aideed, Hussain Aideed, is expected to play an influential 
role as the Minister for the Interior.  Hussain Aideed is a 
U.S. citizen and former member of the U.S. armed forces. 
Hussain does not yet command the level of support his father 
enjoyed. 
 
NAIROBI 00005408  002 OF 002 
 
 
RANNEBERGER