VZCZCXRO9328
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHNR #0469/01 0261010
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261010Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHRY/AMEMBASSY CONAKRY 0122
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7031
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000469 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/EX, DS/IP/AF, CA/OCS 
PASS ALSO TO PEACE CORPS & AID/AA 
TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB ASEC CASC PINS AEMR EAID GV
SUBJECT: GUINEA:  FORMER PM FALL ON CURRENT IMPASSE 
 
REF: CONAKRY 82 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Former Guinea PM Fall sees a yawning gap 
between President Conte's red lines and those of the union 
leaders.  He predicts violent conflict between "the people 
and the army" on one side and "Conte's armed supporters" on 
the other.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) PolCouns met with SRSG for Somalia Francois Fall 
(former Guinean Prime Minister) to solicit his views on the 
current impasse between Guinea's union leaders and the GoG 
(see reftel).  Fall averred that he remains in daily contact 
with senior level contacts in both the GoG and the 
opposition.  He related the following points: 
 
-- This time the population is united in favor of change. 
Even Kaloum (Note:  the Conakry neighborhood inhabited 
primarily by President Conte's Sousou ethnic group) has 
demonstrated in support of the union leaders' demands. 
 
-- Conte will never cede power peacefully or yield to demands 
under pressure, although many of those surrounding him are 
capable of seeing that their best interests are no longer 
served by remaining loyal to him. 
 
-- Conte will never agree to a constitutionally empowered 
Prime Minister as "Head of Government."  He sees that as his 
exclusive role.  "Coordinator of government affairs" 
empowered only by a "mission letter" from Conte is the only 
role he will ever permit for a "Prime Minister." 
 
-- Similarly, Conte will never accept a Prime Minister named 
by anyone other than himself.  Conte may propose Kerfalla 
Yansanneh, former Governor of the Central Bank.  Some 
political and labor leaders are considering former ECOWAS 
Executive Secretary Lansana Kouyate, but Conte is unlikely to 
accept him. 
 
-- Conte will not accept that a Prime Minister choose his own 
government.  At a minimum, he will insist on naming his own 
Defense, Provincial Administration, Security and Agriculture 
ministers. 
 
-- The union leaders will not accept Conte's red lines.  They 
saw how former would-be reformist Prime Ministers such as 
Sidya Toure, Celein Diallo and Fall himself were undermined 
by Conte when they attempted to make real changes in how 
Guinea is governed.  They are saying "we will not be fooled 
again." 
 
¶3. (SBU) Fall is worried about a likely violent confrontation 
in Guinea between "the people and the army" on one side and 
"Conte's armed supporters" on the other.  Fall made the 
following points: 
 
-- Conte knows the army will not fire on the people.  He no 
longer trusts them.  All the firing on peaceful demonstrators 
has been done by either the presidential guard, the gendarmes 
or "Aicha Conneh's militia." 
 
-- Aicha Conneh (former leader of the Mandingo faction of 
Liberia's LURD rebels and highly influential Presidential 
soothsayer to Conte) has recalled her militia from Guinea's 
forest region to Conakry to protect Conte.  They are using 
the arms that Conte had provided them in 2003 when they 
fought Charles Taylor. 
 
-- Conte is also protected by armed elements sent from Bissau 
by his old friend President Nino Viera. 
 
-- Conte never engages in "dialog."  He considers it beneath 
him.  He does not care about world opinion, but some of those 
around him do. 
 
-- This direct challenge to his rule is a "tonic for his 
health.  "Conte is only wide awake and vigorous when fighting 
to keep power." 
 
¶4. (SBU) Fall believes that in the end the army will step in 
to save the nation.  "When the international community sees 
that constitutional means have been exhausted and that the 
people are demanding the army take over to organize 
elections, then they will accept.  He pleaded for the U.S. to 
join others in publicly supporting demands for an official 
inquiry into the deaths of unarmed protesters.  "This will 
make it clear to those around Conte that it is time to 
 
NAIROBI 00000469  002 OF 002 
 
 
abandon ship." 
RANNEBERGER