VZCZCXRO6960
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHMZ #0015/01 0121516
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 121516Z JAN 07
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3718
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000015 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT:  BAVARIA'S STOIBER - BEYOND REDEMPTION? 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
REF: 05 Munich 739 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (U) The political year in Bavaria began with further erosion of 
Bavarian Minister-President and CSU Party Chairman Edmund Stoiber's 
popularity - and questions about his future.  Stoiber's current woes 
include allegations that he ordered inquiries into the private life 
of a CSU politician critical of him, leading to the resignation of 
his chief of staff.  Just as it appeared Stoiber had deflected any 
lasting damage, he managed to upset the CSU faithful during the CSU 
Bundestag Deputies' annual "Wildbad Kreuth" meeting by declaring 
that he not only intended to run again in 2008, but remain as 
Bavarian Minister-President through 2013.  Stoiber's apparent hubris 
rekindled the anger that followed his unexpected return to Munich 
from Berlin in fall 2005 -- and has created a buzz within the CSU 
and Bavarian State Chancellery that Stoiber's days may be numbered 
despite the lack of a clear heir apparent.  End summary. 
 
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The "Pauli Affair" 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) Stoiber's latest round of troubles started with the 
accusation in late 2006 by Stoiber-critic Gabriele Pauli, the 
Christian Social Union (CSU) District Councilor (administrator) of 
the city of Fuerth, that Stoiber had ordered inquiries into her 
private life.  Pauli, following Stoiber's surprise defection from 
the grand coalition government and return to Bavaria in late 2005, 
had openly expressed her opposition to Stoiber's candidacy for 
re-election in 2008, even running for a time a web-site critical of 
him.  Pauli's latest accusations led to the departure of Stoiber's 
Chief of Staff, Michael Hoehenberger, who resigned after admitting 
he called one of Pauli's friends asking about her personal life, 
while insisting he acted without Stoiber's knowledge.  In a move to 
put the "Pauli Affair" to rest, Stoiber belatedly agreed to meet 
personally with Pauli to patch things up - a meeting set to take 
place January 18. 
 
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WILDBAD KREUTH 2007 
------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) With the Pauli Affair receding into the background, CSU 
party leaders kicked-off their annual strategy retreat at the alpine 
resort known as "Wildbad Kreuth" on January 8 with ringing 
endorsements of Stoiber: "Stoiber is the uncontested CSU party 
chairman" (national CSU Caucus Chairman Peter Ramsauer); and "will 
be Bavarian Minister-President well beyond 2008" (CSU Landtag caucus 
chairman Joachim Herrmann).  While these comments, designed to show 
the CSU's solidarity behind the boss, elicited little reaction, 
Stoiber's declaration at a press conference on January 10 set off a 
media fire-storm: Stoiber said he not only intended to run in 2008, 
but remain in power through the end of another term - September 
¶2013. 
 
¶4.  (U) While many in Bavaria had resigned themselves to Stoiber 
running again in 2008, the conventional wisdom was that he would 
groom a successor in the meantime to whom he would turn over the 
reins of power mid-term [following a vote by the Bavarian State 
Parliament (Landtag)] - perhaps as early as 2010.  His stated plan 
to hold on to power through 2013 was interpreted widely as 
essentially a declaration that he intends to be Bavaria's 
Minister-President for life.  This has undone much of the recovery 
that followed the upset over his return from Berlin in 2005 (when, 
in an effort to gain forgiveness, he told the CSU faithful that he 
had "suffered like a dog" -- reftel).  The media have played up 
Stoiber's ambitions, even drawing parallels with the final days of 
Helmut Kohl's chancellorship. 
 
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DEFENSE AND THE CSU 
------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) While Stoiber's pronouncement dominated press play from 
Wildbad Kreuth, there was other news to emerge from the retreat. 
After federal Defense Minister Jung visited Kreuth January 10 to 
discuss the future of German military engagement abroad, the CSU 
presented a paper stating that crisis management in Europe should be 
Germany's first priority and that clearer criteria had to be defined 
for German military engagement.  For the future, the CSU proposed 
two parliamentary votes on military engagement abroad: first, a 
general vote about whether to engage; and second, a vote on a 
detailed engagement plan. 
 
---------------------------- 
ARE STOIBER'S DAYS NUMBERED? 
---------------------------- 
 
MUNICH 00000015  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U) Wildbad Kreuth first appeared (at least publicly) like a 
Stoiber love-fest, with CSU Landtag Caucus Chairman Herrmann 
proposing that the entire caucus sign an appeal for a Stoiber 
candidacy in 2008, and five young CSU deputies climbing Germany's 
highest mountain to unfurl a Stoiber campaign poster.  However, 
following Stoiber's statement, the wall of solidarity appears to be 
cracking.  Respected Landtag President Alois Glueck has cautioned 
that elected officials remaining in office too long risk wearing-out 
their welcome, and that the future of the CSU's leadership would 
have to be reconsidered in due course. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) At Stoiber's New Years reception on January 11, State 
Chancellery officials told the Consul General that Stoiber was on 
thin political ice, and that Glueck, who had announced his 
retirement in 2008, was prepared to replace Stoiber in 2008, if not 
before, as a transitional candidate.  If Stoiber does step aside, 
Glueck is as likely a candidate as any, given the lack of another 
obvious heir apparent. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶8.  (SBU) Stoiber is his own worst enemy.  His unwelcome return from 
Berlin in 2005, his initial unwillingness to meet with Gabriele 
Pauli, and now his brash statement of intent to overstay his 
political welcome have all conspired to bring his unfavorable rating 
among Bavarians to around 60 percent (this despite the CSU having 
the support of 54 percent of Bavarians polled).  The latest gaffe 
may be Stoiber's undoing, although we anticipate he would remain in 
office through the conclusion of his present term ending in 2008. 
We also note, however, that Stoiber has a history of being the 
"Comeback Kid" of Bavarian politics, most recently following his 
tail-between-the-legs return from Berlin in 2005.  Time and again he 
has managed to coax the party leadership to stick with him, even if 
reluctantly so.  We expect he will play the "suffering dog" again 
next week when the CSU Landtag Caucus meets at Kreuth.  If 
successful, he may prolong the Stoiber-era a little longer. 
 
¶9.  (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
¶10.  (U) Previous reporting from Munich is available on our SIPRNET 
website at www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/ . 
 
NELSON