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PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #0002/01 0031233
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P 031233Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5487
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000002 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC BO
SUBJECT: ELECTION SITREP 1: CANDIDATE REGISTRATION A LOSS 
FOR THE OPPOSITION 
 
 
Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) The Belarusian Central Election Committee announced 
December 23 that 23,791 people were registered as candidates 
for the January 14 local council elections.  The CEC results 
showed signs of manipulation, such as a candidate per seat 
coefficients identical to past local council elections and 
similar results for female and youth participation.  Only 
2.2% of registered candidates, or 535, were members of 
political parties and even fewer were from the opposition. 
The registration process eliminated many opposition 
contenders from the race, as was expected.  Ideology officers 
continue to play a large role in the outcome of the local 
council elections.  End summary. 
 
CEC Announces Final Results 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Central Election Committee (CEC) Secretary Nikolai 
Lozovik December 23 announced that 23,791 people were 
registered as candidates competing for the 22,661 local 
council seats.  Out of the 23,791 registered candidates, 
44.4% were women, 48.3% incumbents, and 7.3% under the age of 
¶30.  Seventeen candidates were Russian citizens with 
permanent residence in Belarus. 
 
           Minsk Vitebsk Brest Mogilev Grodno Gomel M.City 
 
Candidates 5,022  3,685  3,743  3,365  3,174  4,479  169 
Seats      -----  3,389  3,573  3,223  3,093  4,338   55 
Ratio      -----   1.08   1.05   1.04   1.03   1.03   3.07 
 
Women      46.4%  44.8   39.6   43.0   43.5    ----  18.0 
Youth       5.5    6.1    6.3    7.0    5.7    ----  22.0 
Incumbent  44.2   ----   ----   42.0   52.0    ----  12.0 
 
¶3. (C) The above table of election results already shows 
telltale signs of registration manipulation.  The candidate 
to seat coefficient in all the oblasts is between 1.03 and 
1.08; the same as the coefficient range from the 1999 and 
2003 local council elections.  Head of the Minsk office of 
the Belarusian Helsinki Committee (BHC) Tatyana Protko 
explained to Poloffs December 21 that this unchanging 
coefficient was a sign of election commission fraud. 
According to the BHC's recent election observation report, 
99% of rural/village seats were uncontested, but not one 
voting district was without a candidate.  This, according to 
Protko, demonstrated that the authorities were choosing 
people to run in every district (see para 7).  Another 
indicator of fraud is that each oblast registered almost 
identical percentages of women and youth candidates 
(approximately 44% and 5-7%, respectively). 
 
Scores Tallied, Opposition Losing 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Political party representatives made up 2.2% of those 
registered, or 535.  Lozovik commented that the majority of 
affiliated candidates represented "constructive" opposition 
parties, namely the pro-government Communist Party of Belarus 
(CPB) with 239 candidates and the Liberal Democratic Party 
(LDP) with 62 candidates.  Pro-government political parties 
that seem to exist only during elections, such as the 
Republican Party of Labor and the Agrarian Party also 
registered a few candidates. 
 
¶5. (U) Pro-democracy parties were less successful in getting 
nominees registered as candidates.  According to the CEC, the 
Belarusian National Front (BNF) registered 69 candidates out 
of 132 nominees (a 52% success rate), the United Civic Party 
(UCP) registered 68 out of 150 (45%), and the Belarusian 
Social Democratic Party (BSDP) registered 44 candidates out 
of 90 (49%). 
 
The Denial Process 
------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) Election commissions continued to apply double 
standards to opposition nominees.  Applications from 
government candidates were accepted without review, whereas 
the minutest alleged error in applications from opposition 
candidates resulted in registration denial.  CEC Head Lidiya 
Yermoshina on December 21 admitted that territorial election 
commissions had been "excessively scrupulous" in registering 
candidates.  According to the BHC, election commissions would 
not provide instructions to independent/opposition candidates 
on how to fill out the necessary tax declaration forms 
 
MINSK 00000002  002 OF 002 
 
 
(created especially for candidate registration) and referred 
them to tax authorities, who in turn refused to provide 
assistance. 
Election commissions also denied registration to candidates 
for allegedly submitting signature lists containing fake 
signatures.  Government-backed candidates did not report 
problems with their paperwork or signature lists (see para 7). 
 
The Domineering Ideology Officer 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) The BHC noted the influence local ideology officers 
had on the election process.  Ideology officers personally 
direct their district's election process and ultimately 
decide the outcome.  Ideology officers pre-select members of 
local and territorial election commissions, serve as either 
the chair or vice chair on precinct election commissions, 
choose government-backed candidates for each district, and 
fill out candidates' registration materials.  The BHC noted 
that government-backed candidates are not actively 
campaigning or using their radio time because they know with 
administrative support they will win. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) Past elections in Belarus have shown that the 
processes leading up to Election Day are rife with GOB 
manipulation.  Since the registration process began, we have 
seen the GOB deploy all of its common tactics.  The 
registration period, just as in the Parliamentary elections 
of 2004, proved to be the GOB's first cut at weeding out the 
opposition.  We expect authorities to interfere in opposition 
campaigns further by prohibiting meetings with voters, 
arresting candidates, and seizing campaign materials. 
Moore