VZCZCXRO9024
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0003/01 0041601
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 041601Z JAN 07
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0051
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHAD/USDAO ABU DHABI TC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0048
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0044

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000003 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GAYLE, PARIS FOR WALLER, BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD, BAKU 
FOR HAUGEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  1/4/2027 
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR IZ LE PTER
SUBJECT: FORMER POLICE GENERAL SAYS RAFSANJANI UP, AHMADINEJAD DOWN 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000003  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian L. Burns, Director, Iran Regional 
Presence Office, Dubai, UAE. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
1.(S/NF) Summary:  A retired police general told IRPO Director 
December 19 that he sees Rafsanjani and Qalibaf on the up-swing 
in Iran, and Ahmadinejad on his way out.  He warned against 
outside attack, saying that if hardliners are left alone to face 
the problems they are creating in the country, they will fall. 
An outside attack, however, would be welcomed by hardliners 
because it would allow them to solidify their hold on power.  At 
the same time, he said Iran is trying to manage the level of 
violence in Iraq to deter a follow-on US attack against Iran, 
while at the same time avoiding a wider Sunni-Shia conflict. 
This apparent contradiction may stem from a differentiation 
between an aerial attack of short duration and a full-scale 
invasion by US ground troops, or it may be that these views are 
symptomatic of paradoxes in Iranian thinking.  In any case, his 
prediction of a Rafsanjani resurgence post-election and an 
Ahmadinejad fall echo views of other contacts in the broader 
Rafsanjani camp.  End summary 
 
2.(S/NF) An Iranian-American contact arranged a meeting December 
19 with a retired police general, who had worked in the police 
legal office before retiring.  When the former official was 
asked why he agreed to meet IRPO, he said to help save his 
country.  He said when he came to Dubai a few days earlier, he 
was moved to tears by the city's development.  He hadn't been in 
Dubai in close to 30 years, when the city had been "nothing." 
Iran should look like Dubai today, he said.  People in Iran are 
very unhappy, looking for a liberator from the small group that 
has taken over the country.  Although he is retired, he claims 
to have continuing contacts with police and intelligence 
officers through his involvement in a Tehran social organization. 
 
Welcome conflict~. 
------------------ 
 
3.(S/NF) As do many contacts, the retired general maintained 
that this government would welcome an outside attack.  An attack 
would unite the people, he said, and allow the government to 
divert attention from the bad economic situation.  He claimed 
that absent confrontation, the current leaders will fall, 
out-maneuvered by Expediency Council Chair Rafsanjani and former 
President Khatami.  He said he did not oppose sanctions that hit 
the government economically.  He claimed the Iranian people 
understand that their government is responsible for the current 
tensions and they know that the government sends Hizballah and 
Hamas money.  Therefore, they won't blame the US for sanctions. 
 
Or not??? 
--------- 
 
4.(S/NF) The former police general claimed that Iran is serious 
about stopping violence in Iraq and that Iran is very afraid of 
the consequences of this violence, but then qualified Iran's 
intentions.  The government will attempt to prevent a wider war 
between Shia and Sunnis, and it recognizes Saudi Arabia's fears 
that Muqtada al-Sadr is assuming a Nasser-type persona in the 
region.  On the other hand, Iran has seen the capability of the 
US military and does not want to be next.  Therefore, it will 
offer some help on Iraq, but he sees little chance at full 
US-Iran cooperation in Iran.  He claimed Talabani cried for help 
in Tehran, but Iran is not keeping its promises to him.  He 
described Iran's policy in Iraq as no peace, but no big war, and 
called it a "bad" policy. 
 
View of internal politics 
------------------------- 
 
5.(S/NF) The Iranian people are not organized, said the former 
official, otherwise they could demand change.  He said the poor 
are the most dissatisfied, including the lower ranks of the 
IRGC, because of inflation and economic hardship in the country. 
 He said, for instance, the price of meat went up 20 percent in 
one month.  When asked why IRGC ranks would be dissatisfied 
given that they receive subsidized food, he said supplies are 
spotty and the quality is bad. 
 
6.(S/NF) He maintained that the country is divided into two main 
factions - fundamentalists and moderates.  Within the 
fundamentalists are three sub-groups: 1) the 
Mesbah-Yazdi/Ahmadinejad group; 2) supporters of the Supreme 
Leader and Mehdi HYPERLINK 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000003  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
"http://opensource.dni.sgov.gov/cgi-bin/cqcgi/ @rware.env?CQ 
_CUR_DOCUMENT=1&CQ_USER_NAME=Mos2Bookmark&CQ_ PASSWORD=Document&CQ 
_LOGIN=Yes&CQ_DO_QUERY=Yes&CQ_CUR_LIBRARY=ALL &CQ_QUERY_STRING.DOC 
UMENT_ID=IAP20061221950040&CQ_MOS2_DO_QUERY_B OOKMARK_ARTICLE=Yes& 
TrackDocID=IAP20061221950040" \\l "HIT0003#HIT0003" Chamran, a 
principle-ist and top vote getter in the Tehran municipal 
election; and 3) opponents of IRGC/Baseej role in politics, who 
largely support Rafsanjani.  He divided the moderate camp into 
two sub-groups: 1) supporters of former Tehran Mayor Karbashchi; 
and 2) supporters of Khatami. 
 
7.(S/NF) The former official said the big turnout in the 
elections was the result of the rivalry between Mesbah-Yazdi and 
Rafsanjani.  He claimed reformers and Rafsanjani are the 
winners, and Ahmadinejad is the loser in the December 15 
elections.  He noted that Khatami's brother Ahmad won a Kerman 
Province seat in the Assembly of Experts. Rafsanjani still has a 
great deal of influence, he said, and people think he can save 
the country.  The source, obviously pro-Rafsanjani, described 
Rafsanjani as pro-Western and said he wants to draw back 
European money that is starting to steer away from Iran.  The 
source claimed that half of the IRGC support Rafsanjani and that 
IRGC support was the reason behind Rafsanjani's high vote count 
in Tehran. 
 
Predicting Ahmadinejad's fall 
----------------------------- 
 
8.(S/NF) The former official predicted (as have other contacts 
with a similar political orientation) that Ahmadinejad is on his 
way out.  His fall may be accelerated, the source said, if the 
new Tehran municipal council launches an investigation against 
him for corruption.  The source claimed that USD 350 million 
disappeared from the city budget under then mayor Ahmadinejad, 
but until now, the city council had not investigated Ahmadinejad 
because the president threatened to launch other investigations. 
 (Note: He also claimed that after the student protests against 
Ahmadinejad at Amir Kabir University just prior to the December 
elections, the authorities arrested a person at the television 
station for airing video of the incident.  He also said a few of 
the student protesters were arrested and some escaped. Endnote) 
 
9.(S/NF) The former official echoed others' views that the 
position of Tehran mayor is a launching pad for the next 
president.  He maintained that in the Ahmadinejad-Qalibaf 
rivalry, Ahmadinejad has the Supreme Leader's support and Tehran 
Mayor Qalibaf (also former IRGC and former head of the LEF) has 
Rafsanjani's support.  He maintained that Qalibaf also has 
support among the IRGC and the police.  (Note: the source 
claimed that even though IRGC officials now head the police, 
career police counselors make the actual decisions.)  He said 
Qalibaf also has the support of Ayatollah Abbas Va'ez-Tabasi 
(Note: the head of the powerful Imam Reza Endowment in Mashhad, 
viewed as a mainstream traditionalist. Endnote).  He maintained 
that among Qalibaf's accomplishments as head of the LEF was 
computerizing the organization, and since becoming mayor of 
Tehran, he finished the IT modernization project that Karbashchi 
had started. 
 
Terrorism links 
--------------- 
 
10.(S/NF) The former police official claims that at the time of 
the US invasion of Afghanistan, the IRGC allowed 350 Al-Qaida, 
mostly Egyptians and Saudis, to escape through Iranian 
territory.  They traveled on "mountain bikes" through the 
Kavir-e Lut desert and left from Mehrabad airport in Tehran.  He 
does not know what happened to them from there.  Later, he said, 
the MOIS gathered up a number of Al-Qaida and turned them over 
to foreign governments.  Now, he claimed, Al-Qaida leaders are 
in Iran but are not in prison.  They are, however, in one place 
and under surveillance and cannot leave the country.  The 
Iranians reportedly told them they are better off staying in 
Iran.  He believes the government views them as leverage 
(presumably as a bargaining chip with the US).  He also claimed 
that after the war, Iranians captured many Taliban and 
eventually developed friendly relations with them.  He asserted 
that some Taliban were or are in Iran, including in Damavand and 
in Tehran, under IRGC surveillance. 
 
11.(S/NF) The former official also claimed that during the 
summer war in Lebanon, "US jets" intercepted an Iranian plane to 
Syria, suspecting it of carrying weapons.  Although it was the 
wrong plane, he claimed Iran stopped using planes to carry 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000003  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
resupplies.  Instead, they hide equipment and explosives in 
cooking oil transported through the Iraqi province of Ilam, a 
Shia region, to Lebanon. 
 
Biographic note 
--------------- 
 
12.(S/NF) The former official said he retired at the rank of 
general five years ago from the police but stayed on working 
another two years.  He has a law degree and passed the police 
academy, and worked most recently in the police's legal office. 
He said he served in the police under the Shah and was arrested 
for protesting against wrongful detentions.  He then reportedly 
transferred to the West European and US section of the 
immigration office.  He claims, and the Iranian-American agrees, 
that he was the unnamed Iranian official who helped Betty 
Mahmoudi leave Iran with her daughter in the mid 1980s, a story 
made famous by the book and movie, "Not without My Daughter." 
He says he directed them to a border crossing point where a 
friend worked who let them pass and ensured the Kurds would not 
trouble them.  He also said that when news leaked of National 
Security Advisor McFarlane and Oliver North's trip to Tehran in 
1986, he and the rest of the immigration office were taken to 
prison and beaten, accused of leaking the information.  He said 
that McFarlane was almost arrested.  He said that after that 
incident, most of the police officers who staffed the 
immigration office were replaced by intelligence officers. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
13.(S/NF) The information offered by the official is largely 
single source, but the allegations of Iran's relations with 
Al-Qaida and Taliban echo what is in the press.  His views of 
Rafsanjani's resurgence to Ahmadinejad's detriment echo those of 
other Rafsanjani supporters or moderate reformers, who had 
largely written off Rafsanjani a few months ago.  Whether this 
represents a real trend or wishful thinking is not yet clear. 
The apparent contradiction in whether the current leadership 
would welcome or fears conflict with the US is worth exploring 
with other contacts, but we suspect that at the end of the day, 
the majority of those in power prefer a continued state of 
tension but not outright conflict with the US. 
BURNS