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R 031112Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY DHAKA
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RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 7693
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1413
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 8846
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1571
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 9532
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 0612
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000013 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM BG
SUBJECT: AWAMI LEAGUE REVERSES COURSE, ANNOUNCES ELECTIONS 
BOYCOTT 
 
REF: A. DHAKA 6844 
 
     ¶B. DHAKA 6838 
 
Classified By: DCM Getta Pasi; reason 1.4(d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On January 3, Awami League (AL) leader Sheikh 
Hasina announced that the AL and its "grand alliance" 
partners would boycott and resist the January 22 
parliamentary elections, claiming the Caretaker Government 
has failed to ensure the conditions necessary for free and 
fair elections. Hasina also announced a new agitation program 
to press alliance demands, which include a new election 
schedule and the resignation of President Iajuddin Ahmed as 
the Chief Advisor.  Publicly, the AL points to the 
disqualification of former President Ershad, leader of 
alliance partner Jatiya Party, as the precipitating factor. 
Privately, many AL supporters admit the alliance is 
unprepared to contest the elections as scheduled and has run 
out of time to prepare and campaign. END SUMMARY 
 
AWAMI LEAGUE REVERSES COURSE -- AGAIN 
===================================== 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Awami League-led 14 Party Alliance and its 
partners in the "Grand Alliance" -- the Liberal Democratic 
Party and the Ershad led wing of the Jatiya Party -- 
announced at a January 3 press conference that they will 
boycott elections scheduled for January 22 and will withdraw 
all previously submitted party nominations.  The announcement 
came just hours before the deadline for withdrawing candidate 
nominations.  It is too early to tell whether the AL and its 
partners will be able to complete the withdrawal of their 
party approved candidates by the deadline.  Also unclear is 
whether party members who filed to contest but then were not 
designated as their party's candidate will maintain party 
discipline and withdraw their nominations. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Hasina justified the boycott on the grounds that 
President Iajuddin Ahmed had violated the constitution by 
taking over as Chief Advisor.  Although the AL had been 
willing to overlook his actions and work with the Caretaker 
Government, Hasina said it is now clear the Chief Advisor has 
failed to create an environment conducive to free and fair 
elections.  Hasina provided a list of reasons why the AL 
believes that free and fair elections are not possible.  She 
cited discrepancies with the voter list, claiming the 
Election Commission has already provided local election 
officers with voter lists that omit the names of AL 
supporters and minorities. Among other charges, she said 
polling stations had been moved to far off locations and 
alliance supporters were being harassed and arrested by the 
Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and police. 
 
RENEWED DEMANDS BACKED BY NEW AGITATION PROGRAM 
============================================= == 
 
¶4. (SBU) Hasina renewed previous demands for the resignation 
of President Iajuddin Ahmed as Chief Advisor, postponement of 
the elections beyond January 22, the reconstitution of the 
Election Commission and its secretariat, and the dismissal of 
local election officials.  The Election Commission must allow 
at least 15 days after publication for public scrutiny of the 
voter list. (Note: the final list has not let been 
published.) She also called for issuance of voter 
identification cards.  To press these demands, the AL 
announced a new agitation program, beginning with a January 5 
demonstration, a transportation blockade for January 7 and 8, 
and a "siege" of Bangabhaban, the President's office and 
residence, until he agrees to resign as Chief Advisor. She 
also called on the Bangladesh Rifles and the police "to side 
with the people against the vote stealers." 
 
ERSHAD DECISION THE "TIPPING POINT" 
=================================== 
 
¶5. (C) Privately, other AL leaders confided to us that last 
week's decision by the attorney general's office to 
accelerate court proceedings in a long-standing corruption 
case against former president Ershad was the "tipping point." 
The actions led to a court decision confirming a prior 
conviction against Ershad and ordering him to report to jail. 
 Efforts by Ershad's attorney's to stay the court action were 
rebuffed by the "vacation judge" responsible for interim 
matters while the Supreme Court is in recess.  The court 
 
DHAKA 00000013  002 OF 002 
 
 
decision left Ershad legally ineligible to contest in the 
upcoming elections and the Election Commission therefore 
rejected his nomination.  Ershad's party promptly announced 
it would boycott elections and reconfirmed its decision at 
today's press conference. 
 
¶6.  (C) Senior AL leader Saber Hossain Chowdhury told POLOFF 
that when the "grand alliance" announced participation in the 
elections on December 23 (Ref B) it provided an opportunity 
for the Caretaker Government to take steps to create a 
"congenial" atmosphere for elections.  Instead, a "biased" 
Attorney General's office moved up the timeline for dealing 
with Ershad's corruption cases, so that the resulting 
decisions would force the Election Commission to reject his 
nomination papers and thus bar him from this election. This 
was a "slap in the face" to the alliance, Chowdhury said, and 
showed that the Caretaker Government had no intention of 
creating conditions for AL participation. 
 
CANDIDATE SELECTION IN DISARRAY 
=============================== 
 
¶7. (C) Another major problem for the "grand alliance" has 
been seat allocation and candidate selection.  The late 
formation of the grand alliance meant negotiations among 
alliance partners were not finalized by the December 26 
filing deadline for nominations.  As a result, over 4,000 
candidates registered to run, about 1,000 more than in 2001. 
This bought the alliance time, until the January 3 deadline 
for withdrawing nominations, but forced an accelerated, and 
many now say flawed, candidate selection process.  In 
addition, all three alliance partners (as well as the 
Bangladesh Nationalist Party) face "rebel" candidacies from 
party dissidents who would not agree to give up their race 
for the approved alliance party nominee. Internal dissension 
was rife within the AL and newspapers reported a grassroots 
rebellion within the AL against alliance candidates nominated 
by the Khelafat-e-Majlish (Ref A) and other Islamic parties 
included in the alliance. 
 
¶8. (C) After the press conference today, Hasina told the 
Ambassador in private that she will postpone the agitation 
program if the Election Commission announces a new election 
schedule before January 5. She also expressed the opinion 
that the military could play a positive role in restoring 
order, and said she now expects that the three service chiefs 
will pressure Iajuddin to step down as Chief Advisor. For the 
third time, she told Ambassador that RAB and police were 
attacking her supporters. As on previous occasions, Hasina 
demurred when asked to provide details. When pressed on the 
same issue, AL Foreign Policy Advisor Syed Abdul Hossain and 
AL Presidium member Kazi Zafarullah said no list was 
available "because there have been so many attacks." 
Zafarullah admitted, however, that he had received no reports 
of attacks on AL supporters in his Faridpur constituency but 
said he "anticipated" them. 
 
¶9. (C) Ershad also met privately with the Ambassador.  He 
confirmed that his disqualification precipitating the 
alliance's decision to boycott.  He also candidly 
acknowledged that the alliance was not prepared to contest 
elections on January 22 and would need more time. 
 
COMMENT: POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS AT HEART OF DECISION 
============================================= ========= 
 
¶10. (C) While none of these charges are new, the AL and its 
allies have now entered uncharted waters by calling for the 
withdrawal of candidates and calling for resistance to 
elections on January 22. The AL's demands are not new, but 
two things have changed since last week: Ershad's nominations 
were invalidated, and the alliance's candidate selection 
process descended into chaos. With these two challenges 
suddenly calling into doubt the AL's chances of victory they 
apparently calculated that delaying elections might buy them 
more time to swing the pendulum back in their favor. 
BUTENIS