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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3931
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000411 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2032 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KCUL SOCI CH
SUBJECT: CHINESE OFFICIAL POLLING: SURVEY SAYS, YOU'RE 
FIRED! 
 
Classified By: Political Section Internal Unit Chief Susan A. Thornton. 
 
Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) The Chinese Government at various levels is 
increasingly turning to opinion polling to measure public 
satisfaction with officials' performances and with provision 
of social services.  The Ministry of Supervision (the 
Government analog to the Party's Central Discipline 
Inspection Commission or anti-corruption entity) is pushing 
localities to embrace a 2006 Central Organization Department 
regulation mandating that polling results figure in the 
annual assessments of local government operations, said 
Victor Yuan (protect), president of the Horizon public 
opinion firm.  Although official polling aims to assess how 
efficiently and productively government departments operate 
rather than target individual leaders, the phenomenon of poor 
ratings resulting in the removal or early retirement of 
cadres at the city and county levels is becoming more 
widespread.  Measuring the success of the Central 
Government's social programs is problematic and a 
quantifiable definition of the "harmonious society" concept 
remains elusive, Yuan said.  An effort to set benchmarks of 
harmoniousness by the Beijing City Government ended in 
confusion and division.  End Summary. 
 
Polling Is Popular 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) In a conversation with poloffs on January 17, Yuan 
related that the Central Organization Department mandated 
early last year that, starting in 2006, local governments are 
required to use public opinion polling results to help assess 
the performance of their various departments, such as local 
health and housing bureaus.  The Ministry of Supervision is 
pushing the policy, urging cities and counties to develop 
useful surveys, Yuan said.  The regulation specifies, 
however, that the results and method do not have to be open 
to the public.  As a result, the demand for  polling has 
soared, Yuan remarked, and many local Governments have 
developed online public opinion surveys (some 34 percent of 
county-level and above governments have web pages).  Most 
observers agree, however, that the data gleaned from online 
questionnaires are suspect because there is little oversight, 
voting is not transparent and ballot-stuffing occurs 
regularly. 
 
¶3.  (C) The weight of polling results in the annual 
assessments has increased, Yuan said.  The Central Government 
has launched many new initiatives in social realms in recent 
years, particularly in education, health care and the 
environment.  The leadership is attempting to figure out a 
way to accurately measure and monitor the progress, while 
also gauging good governance.  The phenomenon of poor ratings 
resulting in the removal or early retirement of officials at 
the city and county levels is becoming more widespread, Yuan 
said.  For example, in the Shunyi district of Beijing, the 
local government conducts annual surveys rating various 
departments.  If a department finishes at the bottom in terms 
of public approval for three straight years, then its head is 
fired or demoted.  At the same time, the heads of the top 
five departments must record a video for distribution among 
officials in which they share their words of wisdom. 
 
¶4.  (C) In a separate conversation, Wang Xixin (protect), 
Professor at Beijing University's Center for Public 
Participation Studies and Support, echoed Yuan's assessment 
of the newfound importance China's leadership places on 
public opinion.  Chinese cadres focus more on public opinion 
than leaders of perhaps any other country in the world, Wang 
claimed.  This attention is a direct refletion of the 
leadership's lack of confidence in its own legitimacy, he 
asserted.  One example of sensitivity to public opinion, Wang 
said, was the recent decision not to raise train ticket 
prices during the 2007 Chinese New Year, due to public 
complaints about price gouging during China's annual holiday 
travel rush. 
 
In Search of Impartiality 
------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) The National Statistics Bureau (NSB) has established 
a National Public Polling Center (NPPC) to conduct and 
promote public opinion surveys.  A prime function of the NPPC 
is to canvass Party members about their "basic thinking," 
Yuan remarked, although he said he has no information about 
the content or results of such inquiries.  He specified that, 
as a general rule, official polling aims to assess how 
 
BEIJING 00000411  002 OF 002 
 
 
efficiently and productively government departments operate 
rather than target individual leaders.  Nonetheless, Horizon 
has embarked on a three-year project that uses polling to 
assess the performance of 10 provincial governors.  To build 
trust with officials and to smooth out any methodological 
kinks, Horizon will not publicly release any of the results 
the first year.  But next year, Yuan plans to release the 
names of the governors whose provinces were surveyed as well 
as any positive findings.  The year after that, Yuan intends 
to publicize all the information. 
 
¶6.  (C) Government offices often prefer to employ Horizon to 
conduct their polling rather than the NPPC, Yuan judged, 
because Horizon is viewed as more objective.  NPPC is prone 
to influence from "stronger" ministries, such as the Ministry 
of Public Security or the Tax Bureau, and other officials, 
who have been known to convince the NPPC to doctor their 
results, Yuan related.  (Note: One Embassy contact alleged 
that NPPC doctoring of unfavorable survey data for the 
Shanghai Government was one of the reasons for the recent 
sacking of NSB head Qiu Xiaohua, who has been detained on 
corruption charges.  End note.)  Horizon, as an independent 
organization, is less vulnerable to such influences and is 
more likely to paint an accurate picture of public opinion, 
even if the verdict is not entirely positive. 
 
How Do You Quantify Harmoniousness? 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Provision of social security is the area where 
officials are most interested in seeking measurements of 
performance, particularly in terms of pensions, unemployment 
benefits, housing and medical care, Yuan said.  Progress has 
been slow in all of these areas.  Only two percent of the 
Chinese public is receiving support in all social security 
categories, and more than 50 percent get nothing.  Such 
statistics cause concern about stability among leaders at all 
levels.  Against this backdrop, Horizon has conducted no 
polling on how the leadership's harmonious society concept is 
being received.  In Yuan's view, however, the harmonious 
society slogan is failing to resonate, particularly among 
decisionmakers.  A key criticism is that the concept is too 
vague, that a harmonious society, like the New Socialist 
Countryside, is difficult to define or quantify.  Yuan 
related that in 2006 he participated in a meeting that Liu 
Qi, the Beijing Party Secretary, convened with scholars to 
discuss the harmonious society concept.  The goal was to 
devise tangible measures so that the Government could set 
(and reach) objectives and claim success, making Beijing a 
national model of harmoniousness.  Liu Qi and the other 
officials went away more confused than when they arrived. 
Yuan said participants could not reach agreement on any 
benchmarks. 
 
¶8.  (C) One particularly contentious issue centered around 
how the capital should treat its surging population of 
migrant workers.  Some scholars urged Liu to make Beijing a 
more hospitable place for the mobile workforce and their 
families, expanding social services for them and removing 
some of the institutional barriers, such as residence permit 
requirements, that keep migrants in legal limbo.  But other 
scholars warned against easing policies, arguing that 
longstanding Beijing citizens would react negatively to a 
more welcoming policy.  People worry that an influx of poor 
newcomers will burden infrastructure and reduce quality of 
life.  Schools that open their doors to migrant children 
often then hemorrhage regular resident children whose parents 
worry about a deterioration of academic standards.  Neither 
scenario is a picture of harmoniousness, Yuan observed. 
RANDT