VZCZCXRO1005
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHBK #0354/01 0180750
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 180750Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4157
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000354 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: ECON ETRD EFIN TH VN
SUBJECT:  THAILAND WARILY WATCHES VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC RISE 
 
¶1.  Summary:  A long string of bad economic news from Thailand 
coupled with a seemingly non-stop slew of positive news out of 
Vietnam has sparked great angst from Thai business and government 
officials that the country will soon fall behind their rapidly 
growing neighbor.  Thai economic analysts fear that Vietnam's 
increasing economic power will spell added competition for Thailand 
in their traditional export markets, and could siphon off much 
foreign investment that would otherwise have come to Thailand.  The 
RTG is meeting the trade challenge by focusing on cooperation with 
the Vietnamese rather than competition.  Additionally, despite the 
recent missteps, Thailand maintains certain competitive advantages 
that will likely keep much current investment here, but faces the 
prospect of a downturn in new investment that may flow to Vietnam in 
its place.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  On January 9 the RTG announcement its intention to toughen rules 
on foreign investment in certain sectors, especially services.  This 
sparked an outcry among investors that the doors were closing to 
foreign investment and some threatened to pull out their 
investments.  Many investors complained pointedly that while 
Thailand was closing its doors, Vietnam had that same week joined 
the WTO and was opening wider to foreign investment.  The 
implication was not subtle:  investors were losing faith in Thailand 
and taking a fresh look at their neighbor, Vietnam. 
 
¶3.  Thai economic and business analysts have taken increasing note 
of Vietnam's reputation as a profitable destination for FDI and its 
growing prowess in export markets, and have expressed concern that 
Thailand will soon be surpassed economically by their dynamic 
neighbor.  Vietnam's accession to the WTO, successful hosting of 
last year's APEC meetings, and continued strong economic growth have 
raised its global image and sparked substantial investor interest. 
Meanwhile, Thai business hit a rough patch in 2006 with political 
instability, a military coup, a rapidly strengthening currency that 
is hurting exports, and overall uneven economic management from the 
newly installed government. 
 
¶4.  Analysts fear that Thailand's traditional exports will face 
cut-throat competition from Vietnam's ever strengthening export 
sector, and that foreign investors will see the rapid growth, lower 
wages, and stable economy in Vietnam as a superior location for 
their investments.  In a speech to a meeting of public and private 
sector leaders earlier last summer, former Deputy Prime Minister 
Somkid warned that unless Thailand boosted its competitiveness, 
Vietnam would overtake Thailand economically within five years. 
Kasikorn Research Center, a leading Thai economic analysis firm, 
predicted that Vietnam's exports would overtake Thailand's by 2020, 
and noted that foreign direct investment figures in Vietnam were 
already rapidly approaching those in Thailand. 
 
Cooperation, not competition on trade 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  Vietnam and Thailand compete head to head on exports of rice, 
rubber, seafood products and apparel, among other goods.  Faced with 
the economic challenge, Thai economic officials have taken to 
describing Vietnam not as a competitor but as a partner, and are 
working with the Vietnamese to prevent unbridled competition that 
would lower prices for Thai exporters.  Thailand and Vietnam have 
agreed to revive a Joint Trade Commission, now to be known as the 
Thailand-Vietnam Enhanced Economic Relationship, to discuss trade 
issues. 
 
¶6.  The Commission is planning its first meeting in February in 
Hanoi to discuss cooperation in rice trade.  Combined the two 
countries account for approximately half the global rice trade, with 
the Thais controlling significantly more market share, but Thai 
exporters have complained that Vietnamese competition has held down 
prices.  Last November, Thai and Vietnamese officials signed a 
Memorandum of Understanding on exchanging information on rice and 
price levels to stabilize rice prices, though both parties remain 
somewhat wary of sharing too much information.  Thailand also 
pledged to assist Vietnam to improve its logistics system and 
warehouses so Vietnamese exporters would not be forced to dump rice 
on the global market at cut-rate prices because of an inability to 
maintain large stocks. 
 
¶7.  Thailand's rubber industry is also encouraging Vietnam, the 
world's fourth largest rubber exporter, to join the International 
Tripartite Rubber Organization, an organization set up by leading 
exporters Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia to control price and 
supply.  According to the Thailand Rubber Research Institute, 
Vietnam has agreed in principle to join the organization. 
 
Vietnam vs. Thailand:  Foreign investors weigh the scales 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶8.  Thailand's recent announcement of potential changes to foreign 
ownership requirements that could force foreign investors to give up 
majority control of their investments have created great unease 
among foreign investors, and Thai analysts have warned that Vietnam 
is quickly appearing more attractive for foreign investment in 
 
BANGKOK 00000354  002 OF 003 
 
 
comparison. 
 
¶9.  In general, Vietnam's primary competitor for foreign investment 
appears to be China rather than Thailand.  Fred Burke, a lawyer at 
Baker & McKenzie in Ho Chi Minh City that handles much foreign 
investment work, told of significant amounts of direct and indirect 
foreign investment entering Vietnam, but said that incoming 
investors consider Vietnam as an alternative or back up to investing 
in China.  Many investors have hedged their investments with a 
"China plus one" strategy, placing some investment in an ASEAN 
country to guard against any uncertainty or instability in the China 
market.  It is notable that for these investors, Vietnam is grabbing 
the attention while Thailand slips from view.  A U.S. construction 
firm operating in SE Asia said their demand for new commercial 
construction in Vietnam was booming; Thailand remained flat. 
 
¶10.  For investors who have substantial investments in both Thailand 
and Vietnam, Thailand maintains competitive advantages of its own 
that should keep much of its existing investment from drifting away 
to Vietnam, though new investment may be a different story. 
Management at a number of Singapore- and Thailand-based foreign 
companies with operations in both Thailand and Vietnam told Econoff 
that although they were enthusiastic about the potential of the fast 
growing market in Vietnam and the substantial profits already 
flowing from their investments there, they were not unduly 
discouraged by the investment environment in Thailand and noted 
advantages and disadvantages in each country.  Panasonic (Matsushita 
Electronics) announced recently that it planned to move ahead with a 
six billion baht (USD 167 million) investment over three years 
despite market uncertainties.  Panasonic cited Thailand's sizable 
domestic market, infrastructure and new airport, but also mentioned 
Vietnam would be another attractive market for its investments. 
 
¶11.  Vietnam holds an obvious advantage in lower labor costs, but 
Thailand frequently has certain advantages in material costs.  One 
major apparel and shoe manufacturer noted that labor costs made up 
only 10 percent of their total production cost, input materials made 
up 65 percent.  Thailand's mature supply structure and superior 
infrastructure helped keep these costs low.  The manufacturer said 
Thailand remained a production source for a number of niche products 
where the Thais maintained a large material base for inputs and in 
areas where they had higher skills and productivity, but noted the 
company was directing the vast majority of their new growth to 
Vietnam.  A major food processor pointed out differing costs for 
land, tariffs, licenses, and logistics, giving Thailand the edge for 
better infrastructure and ease of doing business.  The firm has 
growing investments in both Vietnam and Thailand, but made 
individual investment decisions on a case-by-case basis and did not 
necessarily have a preference for either one. 
 
¶12.  A private equity investor told Econoff that Vietnam had more 
attractive investment opportunities than Thailand, partly because 
the lack of investment in previous decades in Vietnam provided a 
bounty of possibilities for major investment.  However, he warned 
that Vietnam was "hit and miss", and was riskier for small- and 
medium-sized investments, particularly in areas where few foreign 
investors had ventured.  He considered Thailand a substantially less 
sexy market but safer and more predictable, with greater ease of 
doing business, less hassle from the government, and a better 
support structure of service providers such as accountants, bankers 
and lawyers. 
 
If you can't beat 'em... 
------------------------ 
 
¶13.  Not to be left behind, Thai firms have joined the gold rush, 
taking up 11th place on the list of Vietnam's largest foreign 
investors with 132 investment projects valued at USD 1.5 billion. 
In November, the Thai Ex-Im Bank visited Vietnam to provide greater 
support to Thai business there.  In January Thailand's Board of 
Investment is planning a visit of Thai businessmen to seek out 
investment opportunities, focusing on tourism services, auto parts 
manufacturing and agro-industry processing.  The potential 
competition for investment seems not to have struck BOI as serious; 
BOI has produced a slick CD on investing in Vietnam for Thai 
investors, but had no ready plan on how to prevent investment in 
Thailand from slipping to Vietnam. 
 
¶14.  Thailand maintains a healthy trade surplus with Vietnam, 
exporting approximately USD 3 billion to Vietnam through November 
this year, and importing USD 900 million over the same time period. 
Overall bilateral trade has more than doubled over the past three 
years, though Vietnam trade still accounts for only 1.5 percent of 
Thailand's total trade.  More than half Vietnam's exports to 
Thailand consist of crude oil, computer parts and electrical 
machinery.  Thailand ships back refined fuels and production inputs 
such as iron and steel, polymers, cement, and chemical and plastic 
products.  Tourism has shot up as well, with the number of Thai 
visitors to Vietnam increasing by over 45 percent in 2006. 
 
¶15.  Comment:  Thailand's dread surrounding the prospect of being 
"overtaken" by Vietnam is probably mostly psychological, Thailand 
 
BANGKOK 00000354  003 OF 003 
 
 
has more to gain from trade and investment with a prosperous 
neighbor than it would likely lose in exports and there are no clear 
signs yet that investment is slipping away from Thailand despite the 
concerns Thais recently expressed over the "loss" of a major Intel 
greenfield plant to Vietnam last year.  Nevertheless, the sheer 
prospect is a much needed motivating factor for Thailand's 
government and business sectors to gear up for stronger competition. 
 End Comment. 
BOYCE