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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000133 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2027 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER NATO IZ IR KPAL EPET ENRG ZK
IS, TU 
SUBJECT: U/S BURNS' MEETING WITH TURKISH NATIONAL SECURITY 
ADVISOR ALPOGAN 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Turkish National Security Council President Yigit 
Alpogan told U/S Burns January 19 that 2007 would be a 
challenging year for bilateral relations.  The Turkish 
government hopes passage of an Armenian genocide resolution 
in the U.S. Congress can be averted, fears relations with the 
U.S. will be harmed by lack of progress on countering PKK 
terrorism from northern Iraq, and recommends postponement of 
an Iraqi referendum on the status of Kirkuk to prevent 
instability that could affect the entire region.  U/S Burns 
said the U.S. will continue to work with Turkey and Iraq to 
diminish PKK violence, noting Special Envoy Ralston would 
visit the region at the end of January, but warned that 
Kirkuk must be solved by the Iraqis.  Burns emphasized the 
importance of NATO success in Afghanistan and the need fo a 
more aggressive strategy there, hoping Turey and other ISAF 
contributors would considereliminating national caveats and 
contributingadditional troops.  He said the U.S. consides 
Turkey's help essential as we seek to stabilize Iraq, promote 
peace in the Middle East, and confront Iranian ambitions. 
Both agreed that the U.S. and Turkey should cooperate more 
closely on Central Asia, particulary in the energy sphere. 
End Summary. 
 
Armenia Genocide Resolution 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Alpogan said anticipation of passage of an Armenian 
genocide resolution in the U.S. Congress is already causing 
turbulence in Turkish public opinion.  He stated Turkey 
desires good relations with the Armenian people, highlighted 
GOT proposals for a joint historical commission and described 
current Turkish commercial ties with Armenia, including the 
presence of 40,000 Armenian workers and traders in Turkey. 
The U.S. must realize that such a resolution will damage its 
own interests in the region.  He hoped a genocide resolution 
could be avoided, but said the government was prepared for 
"damage limitation" should it pass. 
 
Iraq and the PKK 
---------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Displaying a map of PKK terrorist camps in northern 
Iraq, Alpogan stated that the Turkish public does not see how 
the PKK features in the U.S. global war on terrorism.  He 
noted the Turkish parliament had debated Iraq on January 18 
and would discuss the issue further in a closed session on 
January 23.  The opposition is calling for a cross border 
operation.  Alpogan said lack of action on the PKK will have 
a significant impact on U.S. - Turkish relations. 
 
¶4. (C) U/S Burns said the U.S. Government understands its 
responsibilities to work with Turkey and Iraq to diminish the 
PKK's attacks on Turkish military and civilians, noting that 
Special Envoy Ralston would visit the region at the end of 
January.  The U.S. is the PKK's enemy and is working with 
European countries to counter the organization.  We want the 
Makhmour refugee camp closed; the recent weapons search 
conducted by Iraqi and Coalition security forces was a step 
in that direction.  Burns assured Alpogan the U.S. would work 
this problem with Turkey and Iraq against the PKK but stated 
that Turkey must also work directly with the Iraqi government 
as well as Iraqi Kurd authorities. 
 
Iraq and Kirkuk's Status 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) Alpogan disagreed with U.S. statements that Kirkuk's 
status should be resolved by the Iraqis.  He said that 
instability in Kirkuk would surely lead to civil war in Iraq; 
"as Kirkuk goes, so goes Iraq."  Iraq's neighbors cannot 
remain indifferent to Kirkuk.  Should a referendum give one 
ethnic group control over the city, nothing would hold Iran 
from dominating the Shi'a south while the Sunnis seize Iraq's 
center with al Qaeda's help.  Iran's regional influence would 
grow rapidly and the "Shi'a crescent" from Iran to the 
eastern Mediterranean would extend to Egypt and beyond and 
 
ANKARA 00000133  002 OF 002 
 
 
become a "Shi'a circle."  The GOT recommends postponement of 
a Kirkuk resolution by at least 18 months, perhaps to 
coincide with the planned referendum on Iraqi federalism. 
 
¶6. (C) Burns encouraged Turkey to voice its concerns to the 
GOI but warned that Kirkuk is an issue of Iraqi national 
sovereignty.  NEA PDAS James Jeffrey said the U.S. 
understands Kirkuk's importance, but there are many other 
critical issues the GOI must tackle as well.  He recommended 
that Turkey respect Iraqi sensibilities and not lecture the 
Iraqis on their constitution.  The Iraqis are proud and will 
strongly resist what they perceive as outside interference in 
their political decisions. 
 
NATO and Getting Afghanistan Right 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Turning to U.S. priorities, U/S Burns stressed the 
importance of strengthening the U.S. - Turkey partnership in 
the NATO alliance and hoped for a stronger Turkish voice at 
NATO.  The major challenge is Afghanistan; ISAF needs a more 
aggressive strategy and the U.S. is planning an increased 
effort there in 2007 which could involve additional troops, 
as Secretary Gates had said on his trip there.  Turkey's 
contributions to ISAF and establishment of a PRT in Wardak 
are greatly appreciated, but more troops are needed in the 
key southern provinces of Helmand, Oruzgan and Kandahar.  The 
U.S. is looking to Turkey, Germany, France and Italy for 
help.  Besides additional troop contributions, ISAF 
contributing countries should also remove national caveats on 
the employment of their ISAF forces, Burns stressed. 
 
U.S. Goals in the Middle East 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Burns stated that U.S. - Turkish consultation and 
cooperation would be crucial to other U.S. priorities in the 
region, including forging a peace between Israel-Palestine, 
helping the government of Lebanon resist pressures from 
Hezbollah backed by Iran, and curbing Iranian nuclear and 
political ambitions. 
 
Central Asia and Energy 
----------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) Beyond the Middle East, Burns identified Central Asia 
as an important area for bilateral cooperation.  U.S. 
relations with Tajikistan and Kazakhstan are good, and are 
slowly improving with Uzbekistan.  The death of Turkmenbashi 
may open opportunities for better relations with 
Turkmenistan.  Alpogan responded positively, noting that 
Turkey cannot forge strong ties there on its own.  The EU 
seems rather uninterested in the area.  Alpogan focused on 
energy as an area for U.S. - Turkish cooperation and he hoped 
work on trans-Caspian gas could resume.  Working together, 
Turkey and the U.S. can provide outlets for Central Asian 
energy, through the Caucasus as well as the Indian Ocean, 
that bypass Russia.  Such projects will help the Central 
Asian countries stand alone, creating conditions for more 
democracy and human rights there. 
 
¶10. (C) Ambassador noted that senior U.S. officials would 
soon be coming to Turkey for Economic Partnership Commission 
talks and energy would be a focus.  The U.S. is also trying 
to set up a U.S. - Turkey - Iraq energy working group to 
explore the export of Iraqi gas through Turkey to European 
markets.  Alpogan welcomed U.S. interest, stating Turkey 
hopes to become an energy hub and transit country with the 
goal of reducing Turkey's, and Europe's, dependence on energy 
from Russia. 
 
¶11. (U) U/S Burns has cleared this message. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
WILSON