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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000044 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
USDOC FOR BUREAU OF THE CENSUS: OFFICE OF AFRICA 
 
E.O. 12598: N/A 
TAGS: SOCI KDEM ECON PGOV EAID NI CENSUS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA CENSUS RESULTS - STATUS QUO MAINTAINED 
 
REF: A. 06 ABUJA 2836 
      ¶A. 06 ABUJA 688 
      ¶A. 06 ABUJA 634 
 ¶B. 06 ABUJA 568 
 
ABUJA 00000044  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Nigerian National Population Commission (NPC) 
released the first census in 15 years.  The census tabulations 
affirmed conventional wisdom that the majority of the population is 
in the 17 northern states - 75 million compared to 65 million in the 
southern states.  The largest state is Kano, followed by Lagos, 
Kaduna and Katsina.  The NPC reportedly will release tabulations for 
cities, local government authorities and towns in several weeks 
time.  The major funding donor, the EU Commission, had not yet 
received the official figures and commented that it played no role 
in the data evaluation of the census.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Piecemeal Release of the Census 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On January 9, the National Council of State (NCS) met and 
unanimously accepted the provisional results of the 2006 census that 
was handed over to the Federal Executive Council in December 2006 by 
the NPC.  The NCS comprises the President, former heads of state and 
the state governors. The NCS met under the chairmanship of President 
Obasanjo. 
 
State Tabulations - Northern Weight 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The overall population of the country stands at 140 million 
(m), a 63% increase since the last census in 1991.  Most population 
experts regard the 1991 census as undercounting the actual number of 
persons in the country. The population comprises 71 million males 
and 68 million females.  The northern states have a population of 75 
million, while those in the south have a population of 65 million. 
The largest ten states are: 
-- Kano 9.3m 
-- Lagos 9.01m 
-- Kaduna 6.06m 
-- Katsina 5.7m 
-- Oyo 5.5m 
-- Rivers 5.1m 
-- Bauchi 4.6m 
-- Jigawa 4.3m 
-- Benue 4.2m 
-- Delta 4.09m 
-- Niger 3.9m 
The smallest state is the FCT with a population of 1.4 million. 
 
¶4. (U) The fastest annual growth rate is in the FCT at 9.3% followed 
by: 
-- Yobe 3.5% 
-- Rivers, Oyo, Niger, Borno and Bauchi 3.4% 
The slowest annual growth rates are in Abia, Edo and Plateau at 
2.7%. 
 
The President Speaks Out 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) President Obasanjo said that Nigeria must control its 
population growth rate to ensure that the economy can accommodate 
the population.  He noted that the 3.2% annual growth rate implies 
that a minimum economic growth rate of 10%t was necessary and that 
high rates of poverty generally correlate with large households.  He 
asserted that more focus be given educating female children 
education and  discouraging early marriage. 
 
Lagos State Figure Lower Than Expected 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Lagos State Government (LSG) said it would study the 
results before coming out with its position regarding the census 
result.  Before the census the LSG had believed that the population 
of Lagos was not be less than 15m people, considering in 1996 the 
United Nations estimated the population at 10.9m, projecting that it 
would become the world's third most populous city with 24.6 million 
inhabitants by 2015.  Metropolitan Lagos spills over into 
neighboring Ogun state so Lagos State and Lagos metropolitan 
population need not correlate. Still, it is difficult to believe 
 
ABUJA 00000044  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
that the Lagos State population could be less than 10 million. 
 
Not Everyone Agrees with the Census Figures 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) In reftel A we reported that the Civil Society Coalition on 
Census Monitoring (CSCCM), a collective effort of 80 NGOs to monitor 
the census compiled a report that concluded that the census was 
disorganized and inefficient.  CSCCM representatives told us that 
its monitors documented a general nationwide problem with a lack of 
materials and or staff at many locations.  Moreover, many people 
were discouraged from waiting in long lines, while others could not 
find people to document them, and others, hoping to game the system, 
registered in multiple places.  CSCCM underscored that many people 
were not counted, and overall, the 2006 census did not inspire a 
sufficient level of technical or political confidence to call it 
successful. 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Abia State Governor Orji Uzor Kalu told the media that he 
disagreed with the census figures.  He said "Nigerians are not 140 
million.  We are 210 million.  Taking my own family into 
consideration, I was the only one counted during the last census, my 
wife, children, household help and many people in my village and 
state were not counted." 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Deputy Chief of Mission of the Brazilian Embassy 
scoffed at the released census figures and commented that the 
numbers are greatly inflated.  Abubakar Momoh, political science 
lecturer at Lagos State University, told the media that if the 
figures had shown a majority of the population resided in the south, 
it could have led to a very chaotic situation.  He added that there 
would be disappointment in the south, but did not believe it would 
lead to major protests or violence. 
 
¶10. (SBU) The European Commission was a major backer of the census, 
contributing $138 million.  A representative of the Commission said 
that it provided technical support, equipment and consultants to 
help the NPC.  The Commission had no role in the tabulation and 
evaluation of figures.  As of January 10, the Commission had not 
been provided with an official release of census figures and 
complained that the NPC was slow to respond to inquiries.  He noted 
that tabulations could be challenged via census tribunals to be 
constituted at the direction of the Chief Justice of the Supreme 
Court.  Each state would be designated with a census tribunal and 
members would come from state courts.  The tribunals would be 
constituted once all final census figures are released. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) The politically sensitive breakdown of census figures 
maintained the status quo ahead of April elections.  Reftel A 
predicted that mid-January would be a realistic time period for 
release of the census.  The figures holding the population of the 
northern states at 75 million and that of the southern states at 65 
million do not challenge Nigeria's complex political system, which 
has been delicately balanced for decades on the assumption the north 
has a numerical advantage.  Census figures usually spark controversy 
in Nigeria because the population is a basis for revenue sharing. 
States with larger populations get a bigger share of the Federation 
Account. UN and NGO figures of 12 to 15m (including Lagos 
metropolitan areas outside Lagos state) could be at odds with the 
census finding of Lagos State as only 9.01 million. The provisional 
figure of 1.4 million for the FCT appears an understatement. 
Demographic observers in the FCT opine that the population should 
not be less that 3 million.  However, many residents likely claim to 
live in their states of origin, offsetting some of the discrepancy. 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) NGO organizations and some observers have serious 
reservations about whether the census tabulations were transparent 
and fair, and credible.  These observers speculate that the data is 
inconsistent with voter registration information.  We received 
numerous complaints reported in reftels B,C and D associated with 
the conduct of the census such as inadequate enumeration materials, 
inadequate training for the ad-hoc enumeration officers, and delay 
in the payment of allowances of enumeration officials.  These 
factors resulted in numerous people not being counted and some 
enumeration officials refusing to conduct enumeration when they were 
 
ABUJA 00000044  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
not paid.  As the new figures are absorbed, a number of quibbles and 
challenges can be expected. One point is certain - the Nigerian 
population will continue to grow and regional elites will spin this 
growth to substantiate political claims. 
CAMPBELL