VZCZCXRO3629
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #4038/01 3351058
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 011058Z DEC 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3321
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6034
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0600
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1562
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5537
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9783
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7259

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004038 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: DPP WEEKEND CAMPAIGN EFFORT FOCUSES ON LOVE RIVER'S 
EMOTIONAL APPEAL 
 
REF:  2006 Taipei 3960 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The ruling DPP is holding a mass rally in 
Kaohsiung on Sunday December 3 aimed at energizing supporters to 
boost the prospects of mayoral candidate Chen Chu winning election 
on December 9. Ostensibly organized by the Southern Taiwan 
Association, the "Love Kaohsiung, Cherish Taiwan" event will be held 
at Kaohsiung's Love River to underscore the accomplishments of the 
DPP city government.  The KMT is planning a march on the same day to 
rally support for its candidate Huang Chun-ying.  Both sides are 
concerned that the "cold" election climate this year could depress 
voter turnout, affecting the outcome of this very close race. 
Although KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou and President Chen Shui-bian are 
likely to attend this weekend's activities, most AIT/K contacts 
believe the two leaders will have only a marginal effect on the 
race.  End Summary. 
 
Love River: Boost for Chen Chu? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The DPP is hoping that this weekend's December 3 rally at 
the Love River will energize its voter base and give a boost to DPP 
candidate Chen Chu ahead of the December 9 election.  The DPP 
regards former Mayor Frank Hsieh's cleanup and beautification of the 
Love River as one of its major accomplishments in Kaohsiung.  Taiwan 
Solidarity Union (TSU) Deputy Secretary-General Huang Chao-chang 
told AIT/K that the rally, ostensibly organized by the non-party 
affiliated Southern Taiwan Association (STA), is an obvious election 
ploy to help Chen Chu.  Furious with the STA, Huang complained that 
the association has refused to invite TSU candidate Lo Chih-ming to 
participate.  To add insult to injury, the STA has also been calling 
for TSU supporters to dump Lo and vote for Chen as the only 
pan-Green candidate with a chance of winning.  Despite STA and DPP 
efforts to lure Lo's supporters, Huang believes the corruption 
investigations against President Chen and his family and close staff 
are having a significant dampening impact on Chen Chu's campaign and 
will make it difficult to draw votes away from Lo.  Huang argued 
that the low participation at recent DPP rallies indicates the party 
is having difficulty mobilizing supporters.  As a result, he 
predicted, voter turnout will be lower than in previous elections. 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) A DPP official from Tainan told AIT/K that party branches 
from the surrounding counties have been asked to mobilize supporters 
for the "Love Kaohsiung, Cherish Taiwan" rally in Kaohsiung.  He 
added, however, that most attendees will hail from the Kaohsiung 
area.  A Chen Chu campaign assistant acknowledged that the DPP is 
under "enormous pressure" to win the Kaohsiung election.  The rally 
presents an opportunity to make an emotional appeal that aims to 
inspire voters by recalling the past achievements of the DPP 
administration in Kaohsiung and stressing the importance of 
continued DPP leadership to the future development of the city.  One 
KMT official acknowledged that the rally is a smart move by the DPP 
to stir up supporters who have been depressed about the ongoing 
corruption investigations plaguing President Chen, his family, and 
top aides. 
 
The Chen and Ma Factors 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) So far President Chen has not participated in any campaign 
events on behalf of Chen Chu and it remains unclear whether his 
expected appearance at the December 3 rally would significantly 
boost her campaign.  Local party contacts say that an appearance by 
President Chen would only help energize deep-Green supporters, but 
would have little sway in attracting swing voters who have lost 
faith in the President.  As a result, some believe President Chen 
should not participate in the rally.  The TSU's Huang told AIT/K 
that Chen Chu fears an appearance by Chen Shui-bian could actually 
hurt her support among swing voters, but she is unwilling to 
publicly distance herself from the President.  Local KMT officials 
hope that continuing negative press coverage of the Presidential 
family will boost their mayoral candidate's chances on December 9. 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In contrast to President Chen, KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou 
has campaigned vigorously for Huang Chun-ying and plans to attend 
campaign rallies over the weekend.  A KMT legislative contact 
suggested to AIT/K that Ma's mayoral special budget accounting 
problems have had only minimal effect on Huang's prospects.  Ma's 
 
TAIPEI 00004038  002 OF 002 
 
 
appeal with young and female voters, moreover, could help compensate 
for Huang's stodgy, less charismatic image.  The campaign, according 
to this contact, is in effect a proxy contest between President Chen 
and Chairman Ma.  Chen hopes to lead Kaohsiung to victory in order 
to stem his and the DPP's downward slide since last year, while Ma 
hopes a victory will reinvigorate his recently tarnished 2008 
presidential prospects. 
 
Not Playing the "Taiwan Identity" Card? 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Chen Chu recently told the DDIR she would not play the 
polarizing Taiwan identity card (reftel).  DPP contacts tell AIT/K 
the party will not hold campaign-related activities to commemorate 
the anniversary of the Kaoshiung incident on December 10.  A KMT 
contact suggested that DPP efforts in the 2005 3-in-1 elections to 
exploit "Taiwan identity" issues failed to have much resonance with 
voters, especially those under the age of 40, who had no significant 
recollection of the Kaohsiung incident, which occurred 27 years ago. 
 
 
Comment 
-------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The Kaohsiung mayoral election remains too close to call. 
While the corruption scandals surrounding President Chen have 
damaged the DPP by depressing Deep Green enthusiasm and alienating 
swing voters, Chen Chu is a stronger campaigner than her KMT rival 
Huang Chun-ying.  A saying popular in Kaohsiung these days holds 
that victory or defeat both come from Chen Shui-bian.  In other 
words, if Chen Chu loses, blame for the defeat will be placed 
squarely on the beleaguered President, as he struggles to retain 
core DPP support in the face of on-going pan-Blue efforts to force 
him from office.  Thus the stakes in this southern Taiwan contest 
have major national implications. 
 
THIELE 
 
YOUNG