VZCZCXRO3846
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVJ #3254/01 3601442
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261442Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5121
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUFOAOA/USNIC SARAJEVO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 003254 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: SDS MOVES TO THE RIGHT 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Serb Democratic Party (SDS) internal elections held 
December 16 reveal a party divided, with new leadership 
rethinking the party's support for constitutional reform in 
Bosnia and Herzegovina.  Mladen Bosic, former Deputy 
President of SDS and the party's failed 2006 state presidency 
candidate, was elected President of the party with a narrow 
majority.  Bosic has called for democratization of SDS, as 
well as a new party platform and bylaws, and party elections 
at all levels by the end of May 2007.  In addition to the 
possible withdrawal of support for key reforms, leadership 
changes in SDS could contribute to a radicalization of the 
political climate in both the Republika Srpska (RS) and 
Bosnia as a whole, and could lead to an attempt by SDS 
hardliners to reassert control of the party.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SDS ACCEPTS RESIGNATION OF CAVIC, ELECTS BOSIC PRESIDENT 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In a Main Board session December 15 and a Party 
Assembly December 16, SDS formally accepted the resignation 
of its President, Dragan Cavic, and narrowly elected Mladen 
Bosic to head the party for the next six months.  Bosic 
defeated his opponent, East Sarajevo Mayor Radomir Kezunovic, 
widely seen as a representative of the Cavic camp, by a tally 
of 190 to 108.  While he defeated Kezunovic by a fairly wide 
margin, Bosic won the necessary simple majority of all 
delegates present by only 14 votes. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In addition to serving most recently as SDS Deputy 
President, Bosic was SDS candidate for Serb member of the 
state Presidency in October 2006 elections.  Bosic previously 
served as Bosnian Ambassador to Slovenia and, while Deputy 
President of SDS, he represented the party at technical talks 
on constitutional reform led by USIP.  Bosic currently serves 
as the director of Telekom Srpske in Brcko and is a member of 
the Brcko Assembly. 
 
BOSIC PLANS "DEMOCRATIZATION" AND REVIEW OF PARTY POLICY 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Both publicly and in a meeting with emboff Bosic 
highlighted his goals for his short term as president; 
democratization and decentralization of the party.  Bosic 
said that in order to consolidate SDS following its 2006 
electoral losses, he will encourage the passage of new party 
bylaws by the end of February 2007.  Based on these new 
procedures elections will be held at all level within the 
party, starting at the municipal and regional level, and 
ending with elections for Main Board, Presidency and 
President and the formation of a new party platform by late 
May. 
 
¶5. (SBU) When asked what a new platform for SDS would mean, 
Bosic told emboff that he did not intend to radicalize SDS, 
but that he would reestablish the SDS claim to the 
right-center of the RS political spectrum, a position which 
he said RS Premier Milorad Dodik had successfully usurped in 
the 2006 campaign.  On current reform initiatives, such as 
police and constitutional reforms, Bosic did not rule out 
support but said that SDS would not participate in these 
processes "as a satellite of Dodik."  On police reform, 
resolutions passed by the RS National Assembly (RSNA) would 
be the party's guide, Bosic said, promising SDS opposition to 
any police reform document that went beyond this framework. 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) On constitutional reform, Bosic said that while the 
SDS Main Board had supported the March package of 
constitutional reforms and SDS MPs had voted in favor of its 
passage, the defeat of this package in the state House of 
Representatives meant that this package was dead.  Should the 
package be reintroduced in the House of Representatives, 
Bosic said that parties would have to debate the package 
again under new political circumstances.  Bosic did not rule 
out eventual SDS support for a return to the March package, 
but reiterated on several occasions that SDS would not take 
such a position without the explicit support of both party 
leadership and its base. 
 
OPPOSITION IN THE OPPOSITION 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Bosic,s narrow majority is not the sole factor 
suggesting persistent divisions within the SDS following this 
leadership struggle.  One leading SDS office holder, SDS 
state House of Representatives MP Momcilo Novakovic, has 
publicly opposed Bosic,s plan to reevaluate support for the 
 
SARAJEVO 00003254  002 OF 002 
 
 
March package.  In a statement in the daily Euro Blic, 
Novakovic announced his resignation as leader of the SDS 
Caucus in the state House of Representatives because he said 
he could not accept the party's decision to revisit support 
of the package.  According to Novakovic, there will never be 
a better package of constitutional reforms for the RS. 
 
AFTER BOSIC... 
-------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Many, especially those supporting former SDS 
President Dragan Cavic, contend that the current leadership 
struggle is merely beginning.  They have stated that the move 
to sack Cavic and replace him with Bosic represents an effort 
by old guard SDS voices, including figures removed by OHR 
like Dragan Kalinic, to reassert their position in the party. 
 While there have been no public efforts by such figures to 
assert control of the party, many observers, both inside and 
outside of SDS, have asked whether or not individuals like 
Kalinic will be automatically rehabilitated following the 
expected departure of OHR in mid-2007. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Few feel that the election of Mladen Bosic is the 
end of the leadership struggle in SDS, and continued 
division, or even the formation of a rival party, can not be 
excluded.  While SDS currently holds very few levers of power 
at the state or entity levels, the outcome of this struggle 
is not without import for both RS and state-level politics. 
SDS is likely to withhold its support for police and 
constitutional reforms, making their adoption more of a 
political risk for RS Premier Milorad Dodik.  Moreover, if 
SDS chooses to adopt more nationalist rhetoric, this could 
force the policies, not just the campaigning, of the Dodik 
government to the right.  Finally, attempts by nationalists 
like Dragan Kalinic to reassert control over SDS, either 
directly or indirectly, could be one of the first challenges 
Bosnia faces following the departure of OHR. End Comment. 
CEFKIN