VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #2972/01 3531957
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 191957Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4692
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 002972 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2026 
TAGS: ES PGOV PREL PTER
SUBJECT: FMLN CONVENTION GOES STALINIST, LOOKING AHEAD TO 
2009 
 
REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 2008 
     ¶B. SAN SALVADOR 2056 
     ¶C. SAN SALVADOR 2508 
 
Classified By: Polcouns Carlos Garcia, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C)  SUMMARY:  In its December 17 national convention, the 
Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) Party (with 
the attendance of 526 delegates known as party militants) 
overwhelmingly voted into effect new "reforms" whereby open 
primaries will be abolished, and incumbent party leaders will 
remain in office through 2009.  Under the new system, 
participants in nationwide consultative meetings of party 
activists will yield a slate of possible candidates; final 
decisions on candidates will be made by the National Council 
(41 voting members) and the Political Commission (19 
members).  FMLN leaders have strictly forbidden party 
activists from any contact with media as the process moves 
ahead.  At this point, it is still not clear whether the 2009 
FMLN presidential ticket will be headed by an outsider or by 
an old-line Communist Party stalwart.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C)  The FMLN, which long prided itself on its open 
primaries, moved away from transparent internal processes 
between their 2004 presidential defeat and 2006 municipal and 
Legislative Assembly elections.  An April 2005 convention 
suspended open primaries in favor of hardliner-appointed 
special commissions that selected candidates by a process of 
"consensus" that lacked transparency.  Under the 
newly-enacted procedures, the National Council will select 
candidates for the presidential ticket and choose Legislative 
Assembly candidates (the latter of which was previously the 
responsibility of 14 departmental directorates), while the 
Political Commission will control the selection of candidates 
for municipal and departmental offices, as well as 
appointments to internal offices.  FMLN Central American 
Parliament (PARLACEN) Deputy Nidia Diaz opined that primaries 
resulted in "weakness", and that the concentration of greater 
power in the party's incumbent leadership would result in 
greater "cohesion".  Other prominent FMLN leaders asserted 
that the new procedures--basically off-limits to the 
press--will be less subject to interference and distortion by 
the nation's generally-conservative news media.  Stripped of 
any functions relating to the election of new officers to the 
FMLN's key ruling bodies, the purpose of the December 17 
convention was simply to ratify the hardliners' "reforms". 
With a bizarre logic, the party tried to spin their move with 
the press, announcing that "democracy is not elections, 
democracy is the people participating in popular governance." 
 
 
¶3. (C)  In a November 28 conversation with poloff, moderate 
FMLN Legislative Assembly Deputy Hugo Martinez lamented his 
party's increasingly autocratic tendencies and its 
near-obsessive avoidance of public scrutiny of its internal 
processes.  Martinez related that there remain primarily two 
views within the FMLN regarding what type of candidate would 
best serve the party's interests in 2009.  Many members of 
the "Revolutionary Current" hardliner faction formerly 
controlled by late party strongman Schafik Handal feel that, 
notwithstanding problems she has already experienced in 
governing San Salvador (see reftel B), a longtime veteran 
such as San Salvador Mayor Violeta Menjivar might fare best, 
while a growing number of grassroots activists believe that a 
fresh face from outside party ranks--one unassociated with 
the nation's bloody 12-year armed conflict--is the likelier 
path to the Casa Presidencial.  However, Martinez believes 
that the Sandinistas' November victory in neighboring 
Nicaragua has strengthened the hand of the FMLN's most 
hard-core traditionalists.  Notwithstanding his youth, 
charisma, and good relations with all the FMLN's factions, 
Martinez's own fortunes do not appear to be rising (see 
reftel A). 
 
¶4. (C)  Moderate and highly-popular Santa Tecla Mayor Oscar 
Ortiz, although careful to avoid direct criticism of the new 
"reforms", has opined publicly and to poloff that candidates 
most acceptable to the FMLN's orthodox leadership are 
unlikely to appeal to voters outside the party's traditional 
activist base, which remains too small to elect officials to 
national office.  (Note:  The FMLN has lost every postwar 
presidential election by margins of 22 to 24 percent.  End 
note.)  Ortiz, whom Schafik Handal defeated in 
bitterly-contested 2003 presidential primaries, is already 
trying to position himself as a 2009 presidential candidate 
(see reftel C), and speaks in measured tones of broad 
consultations and alliance-building as the party moves ahead 
toward 2009.  Longtime FMLN Deputy Salvador Arias was 
dismissive of Ortiz's pronouncements, emphasizing that 
"strategy is the fundamental element... the (candidate) must 
not define the strategy..."  Ortiz was present at the 
December 17 convention, but left prior to the near unanimous 
 
votes for these changes.  Ortiz' absence received significant 
press attention, but was overshadowed by the vociferous 
opposition to the new changes expressed by Legislative 
Deputies Calixto Mejia and Emma Julia Fabian from La Libertad 
Department.  Mejia, to a chorus of boos at the Convention, 
quipped that he had been selected for three years for his 
position in party leadership and that he could not remember 
anyone mentioning six years as part of the deal. 
 
¶5. (C)  Revolutionary Democratic Front (FDR) National 
Coordinator Julio Hernandez (a former FMLN Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal (TSE) Magistrate) painted a quite different scenario 
in a December 14 conversation with poloff.  Hernandez 
outlined how the FMLN leadership has already settled on 
selecting an "outsider" to run for president in 2009, and 
that the three finalists under consideration are Arturo 
Zablah, Mauricio Funes, and Supreme Court Justice Victoria 
"Vicki" de Aviles, with an old-guard party veteran in the 
vice presidential slot--likely either Deputy Sigfrido Reyes 
or Assembly Delegation Chief Salvador Sanchez Ceren.  (See 
reftel C.)  According to Hernandez, the "reforms" passed by 
the orthodox FMLN leadership are meant to ensure lockstep 
discipline precisely out of fear that an outside candidate 
could establish his or her own power base within the FMLN. 
Hernandez reports that in his private meetings with both 
Zablah and Funes, both have expressed their distaste at the 
idea of serving as mere figureheads and mouthpieces for FMLN 
orthodoxy, without being allowed to develop their own agendas 
and appoint their own advisors and cabinet members. 
Hernandez also reported that the FDR is considering offers of 
a 2009 alliance from the FMLN, but that many of his FDR 
colleagues' painful 2004-2006 experiences with the FMLN make 
them hesitant to accept such overtures. 
 
¶6. (C)  COMMENT:  The FMLN has now taken a clear step back 
from their semi-democratic Marxist structure to a clear 
Stalinist "democratic centralist" model.  In addition, the 
elimination of primaries will allow the now majority 
Communist Party leadership to exert full internal control, 
and will likely lead to the next major party purge.  Prime 
victims in this purge will be Oscar Ortiz, Calixto Mejia, and 
most of the La Libertad department delegates.  It is not 
clear at this point whether the FMLN leadership will use 
their monopoly on power to select a hardliner, or seek to 
co-opt an outsider as their 2009 presidential candidate. 
Barclay

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