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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 002067 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
H PASS FOR SENATOR NELSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016 
TAGS: PREL PTER OREP BA REGION OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: SENATOR NELSON AND CROWN PRINCE DISCUSS REGIONAL 
ISSUES 
 
MANAMA 00002067  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (C) In their December 18 meeting, Crown Prince Salman 
told Senator Nelson that Bahrain is 100 percent committed to 
the bilateral relationship and credited the United States 
with protecting the stability and security of the region. 
The Senator briefed Shaikh Salman on his recent meeting with 
Syrian President Asad, saying he had had "sharp words" with 
Asad about Lebanon.  Asad had implied that he might want to 
cooperate with the United States and Iraq on controlling the 
Syrian-Iraqi border.  The CP said that Iran uses Syria as a 
conduit to Hizballah and Hamas, and it was better to draw 
Syria away from Iran than to allow their alliance to 
strengthen.  On Iraq, Shaikh Salman suggested that U.S. 
troops draw back from the front lines and consolidate so as 
to take fewer casualties.  He thought a 50-60,000 member U.S. 
rapid reaction force was most appropriate.  He called Iran 
the greatest long-term threat in the region and worried that 
if the Iranian regime felt threatened, it might try to take 
down as many others as it could.  End Summary. 
 
----------------------------- 
Strong Bilateral Relationship 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Opening their December 18 meeting, Crown Prince 
Shaikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa thanked Senator Nelson 
(D-FL) for visiting Bahrain and cited the strength of the 
U.S.-Bahrain relationship, which has existed for over 100 
years.  He said the United States protects the stability and 
security of the region, which allows countries to develop and 
prosper.  Bahrain, he said, is "100 percent" committed to the 
relationship. 
 
----------------- 
Lebanon and Syria 
----------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) The Senator told Shaikh Salman that he had met with 
Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora after an earlier meeting with 
Syrian President Asad, and he had told Siniora that he had 
had "sharp words" with Asad about Lebanon.  The Senator told 
Asad that he supported Siniora; Asad replied that he did not. 
 
¶4.  (C) The Senator said that Asad had been evasive during 
their meeting, as he had been three years ago when the 
Senator had met him.  However, this time Asad had been 
different in two ways:  first, he had implied that he might 
want to cooperate with the United States and Iraq on 
controlling the Syrian-Iraqi border, and second, Asad had 
requested no quid pro quo for this possible cooperation.  The 
Senator had emphasized that it was in Syria's interest to 
control the border, to keep in check any possible refugee 
inflow and to create the conditions for a future pipeline 
from Kirkuk to the Syrian coast.  Regarding Syria's 
relationship with Iran, the Senator had told Asad that 
ultimately Iran might become a threat to Syria and the whole 
Arab world.  Asad had disagreed. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Libya a Model for Syria Diplomacy 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) The Crown Prince stated that Syria is the linchpin 
for any strategy to contain Iran, which represents the 
greatest threat to the region.  It is actively pursuing the 
building blocks for nuclear weapons and uses Syria as a 
conduit to Hizballah and Hamas.  Shaikh Salman said there 
could be an opportunity for constructive diplomacy with Syria 
based upon the Libya model.  Just as the West had pressured 
Libya over the Lockerbie bombing, it could pressure Syria 
over the Hariri assassination.  Drawing Syria away from Iran 
is a better situation than allowing them to build a strong 
alliance.  Because Syria is so isolated, it would likely want 
guarantees that the U.S. will not pursue regime change in 
exchange for cooperation. 
 
¶6.  (C) The Crown Prince continued that Saudi Arabia is 
overtly angry with Syria and had pushed Asad away.  But in a 
less emotional context, would regime change really be a 
favorable outcome?  Shaikh Salman said he doubted it would be 
because a successor regime, likely led by Sunni extremists, 
would be worse than Asad. 
 
MANAMA 00002067  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Withdraw Troops from Iraqi Front Lines 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Senator Nelson asked the Crown Prince for his views 
on the situation in Iraq.  The CP replied that the GOI had to 
address four main issues:  de-Baathification, which had gone 
too far and was too harsh; distribution of oil income; 
federalism, specifically, whether Iraq should be composed of 
three or 18 regions; and disarming militias.  He suggested 
that the U.S. withdraw troops from the front lines and 
consolidate its forces so as to take fewer casualties.  The 
security situation would likely decline, but this would force 
Iraqis to take on a greater measure of the security 
responsibilities themselves and look to their neighbors for 
support.  The U.S. could intervene if necessary.  This 
situation is preferable to the U.S. "half committing" to 
providing security in Iraq or increasing the number of U.S. 
troops in the country. 
 
¶8.  (C) The Senator reported that Saudi Arabia supported 
fixing a timetable for a complete pull-out of U.S. forces as 
a means to encourage Iraqis to work together.  The CP said 
that this was not enough and would not work.  He recommended 
that the U.S. draw down to about 50-60,000 troops, which 
would serve as a rapid reaction force.  He thought GCC 
countries would probably support a U.S. rapid reaction force 
in Iraq, and they might even contribute troops if Iraq 
requested them to do so. 
 
¶9.  (C) The Crown Prince said that what the United States 
tried to do in Iraq was very hard and the U.S. had 
underestimated the difficulties.  Iraq will never be a model 
for democracy in the region.  The United States should 
empower PM Al Maliki, but it cannot do it alone.  The U.S. 
should get Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and others to help. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Iran the Greatest Long-Term Threat 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) Switching gears, the Crown Prince said that the U.S. 
cannot confront Iran while it is tied up in Iraq.  Iran 
represents the greatest long-term threat in the region.  It 
wants to develop long-range ballistic nuclear missiles.  A 
project like this requires the resources of a state behind 
it, and goes well beyond what a group like Al Qaida could do. 
 The Senator asked the Crown Prince his view of whether Iran 
might take offensive action against oil interests.  The Crown 
Prince responded that "rationality is overrated," 
particularly if the Iranian regime feels its entire existence 
is threatened.  They might try to take down as many others 
with them as they could.  Additionally, Iran could try to 
stir up trouble inside the GCC, for example in Bahrain and 
Dubai.  The CP said that Bahrain is interested in pursuing an 
integrated air and missile defense system with the United 
States and other GCC countries to harden its defenses against 
Iran. 
 
¶11.  (C) The Senator asked Shaikh Salman his thoughts on the 
possibility of a terrorist attack on an oil tanker.  The CP 
responded that some extremist groups are perpetuating a 
cult-like philosophy that glorifies death.  These extremists 
can never be brought into the mainstream.  A tanker going 
down is not a strategic issue, but it highlights the need for 
alternatives to shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz. 
The region also needs a way to react quickly to an 
environmental incident.  Bahrain worries about something 
happening at Iran's Bushehr reactor that results in the 
contamination of Gulf waters.  Bahrain obtains 70 percent of 
its potable water through desalination, and it cannot afford 
to face the disaster of radiated Gulf waters. 
 
 
********************************************* ******** 
Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ 
********************************************* ******** 
MONROE