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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LA PAZ 003245 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2016 
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL PHUM BL
SUBJECT: SENATE MEETS IN DARK OF NIGHT 
 
REF: LA PAZ 3204 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d 
). 
 
----------------- 
SUMMARY 
----------------- 
 
¶1.  (C)  Following a series of questionable but probably 
legal maneuvers to attain a quorum, the Bolivian senate met 
late in the night of November 28 and rapidly approved five 
new laws, including the controversial land reform bill (INRA) 
and a Bolivian-Venezuelan military agreement.  Within hours 
of the senate's action, the president signed the bills into 
law just after midnight .  While arguably legal, the GOB's 
aggressive manipulation of senate procedures is a worrying 
indication that it is not interested in working across party 
lines.  The aftermath of the president's midnight maneuver is 
that the MAS has effectively gained control of the senate. 
MAS contacts indicate that they are preparing to move forward 
with an aggressive political agenda.  While the national 
opposition continues to flail rhetorically, it shows little 
sign of posing a threat to current MAS hegemony, and 
President Morales popularity has soared in the most recent 
polling, probably reflecting the popular support for his 
renegotiation of hydrocarbons contracts.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
A MEETING IN THE DARK OF NIGHT 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  While President Morales and Vice President Garcia 
Linera were meeting publicly with the La Paz Civic Committee 
on the night of November 28 to discuss starting a dialogue, 
the senate was convened in a surprise session to pass the 
controversial land reform law (INRA) and a stalled military 
agreement with Venezuela.  Despite weeks of intense MAS 
pressure, both bills had been held up by opposition 
resistance.  This ended when the GOB was able to convince two 
opposition party alternate senators, one from Podemos party 
and one from UN, to break the opposition-led senate boycott 
and thus create a quorum (reftel). 
 
¶3.  (C)  The Bolivian senate is made up of twenty-seven 
senators, three from each department.  Each senator is 
elected along with an alternate.  Before November 28, the 
Podemos party held thirteen seats, MAS twelve, and UN and MNR 
one each.  On November 28th, Beni Podemos Senator Hector 
Mario Vargas attended the session, but left before the voting 
started.  While rumors and accusations of the opposition 
being bought off by the MAS party abound, none have yet been 
confirmed.  Following Vargas' appearance at the senate on 
November 28th, Podemos and MAS contacts confirm that Beni 
Senator Hector Mario Vargas has abandoned Podemos and will 
join the MAS, thus appearing to give the MAS the senate 
majority. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
MAS TRIUMPHANT, LOOKING AHEAD 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶4.  (C)  MAS party strategist and Santa Cruz Senator Guido 
Guardia'a advisor Jose Arraya was jubilant when he spoke with 
Emboff.  "With Vargas we have the majority," he said, "now we 
just need two more to take absolute control of the senate. 
We are going to neutralize Cochabamba Podemos Senator Tito 
Hoz de Villa (by bringing up corruption charges) and already 
have a deal with his alternate senator.  I'm working on 
cutting deals with either the UN or MNR for their votes." 
When asked about the constituent assembly, Arraya replied: 
 
LA PAZ 00003245  002 OF 003 
 
 
"if we don't get the two-thirds in the final vote we'll just 
go with a simple majority".  This was followed by a string of 
obscenities in which he expressed his desire to "go after" 
the CAO (Eastern Agricultural Chamber), the CAINCO (Santa 
Cruz Business Federation), and opponents in the eastern 
departments. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
THE OPPOSITION FLAILS AND WAILS 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  Podemos alternate Senator Rene Zamora from Potosi 
told Emboff that in recent days he had been approached by the 
MAS to break ranks and attend the senate session.  Zamora 
said this was not the first time he had been approached by 
the MAS, reporting that as in other instances, he replied 
that he "is not for sale."  The senator argued that the MAS' 
approach on November 28th "demonstrates that the GOB is not 
interested in building consensus or even having any dialogue 
with the opposition."  Zamora told Emboff he fears that now 
that the MAS controls the senate it will pursue criminal 
charges against four of Bolivia's ex-presidents (Rodriguez, 
Mesa, Sanchez de Lozada, and Paz).  With both houses under 
MAS control Zamora claimed, the legislature could radicalize 
considerably -- he held out the prospect of changes in coca 
jurisprudence as an obvious area for MAS creativity.  Zamora 
was pessimistic about the situation in Sucre, "they have 
railroaded the senate, next is the Constituent Assembly." 
 
¶6.  (C)  Podemos' Chief of Staff for party leader Jorge 
"Tuto" Quiroga, Gustavo Alliaga, told Emboff that Podemos had 
heard rumors of pending changes in allegiance as early as 
last week but simply "didn't want to believe it."  Alliaga 
claims that Pando alternate Senator Fermin Heredia Guzman 
will be named Bolivian consul general in Sao Paulo as his 
reward for joining the MAS.  (Note:  The new Brazilian 
Ambassador told Ambassador Goldberg on November 30 that one 
of the alternates, a long time resident of Brazil, was a 
"shady character" who was almost certainly the recipient of 
money or favors in return for his actions.  End Note) 
Alliaga said the mood at Podemos party headquarters is 
somber.  At this point "we are even resigned to losing in the 
Constituent Assembly.  Bolivia will end up with a one hundred 
percent MAS constitution." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
.. BUT CAN IT GET ITS ACT TOGETHER? 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
 
¶7.  (C)  In a meeting with Emboff, Senate Vice President Jose 
Villavicencio (UN) said he felt like he had been "sucker 
punched"  when he found out his second had broken ranks.  The 
senator stated that while the MAS did not follow Senate 
protocol in the way it convened the secret session, it was 
not illegal.  After a day of reflection, Villavicencio said 
he was trying to look on the bright side of things, which was 
that the GOB had taken off its mask and exposed its 
undemocratic nature.  President Morales' actions were helping 
to unify the previously fractured opposition parties.  The 
senator commented that he met with UN party President Samuel 
Medina on November 29 and that the two agreed there were 
three choices at this juncture:  submit, flee the country, or 
fight for a democratic state.  Villavicencio then announced 
that "the UN party has chosen to fight.  The battlefield will 
be the constituent assembly." 
 
¶8.  (C) Villavicencio explained that measures the UN will 
take will include expanding the UN hunger strike, supporting 
the planned December 1 twenty-four hour strike in the eastern 
departments, and continuing to boycott the senate.  Waxing 
dramatic, the senator went on to say, "we have to stop the 
 
LA PAZ 00003245  003 OF 003 
 
 
domino effect of Venezuela, Cuba, and now Ecuador.  The 
department of Pando is willing to go to war to not let 
Bolivia become communist.  We do not want to separate, 
rather, we are prepared to defend the whole of the country to 
maintain a unified and democratic Bolivia.  Don't let the 
momentary tranquillity in La Paz fool you, outside of the 
capital the people are restless." 
 
---------------- 
COMMENT 
---------------- 
 
¶9.  (C)   Perhaps no subject in the conservative, 
agricultural Bolivian lowlands is so neuralgic as the 
ownership of land, and until this turn of events, it appeared 
that the opposition had the government stalemated in the 
senate, which it controlled until November 28th.  Opposition 
leaders appear to have seriously miscalculated the depth of 
the commitment of their team, and underestimated the 
government's understanding of Bolivia's parliamentary rules 
of order.  (And just plain willingness to use all the tools 
at its disposal to get the requisite number of senators to 
switch parties.)  The MAS is emboldened by this victory, and 
by recent poll results that show its popularity surging with 
the hydrocarbons renegotiation.  With the finger pointing in 
the opposition continuing, Podemos in particular appears to 
have been dealt a body blow, although Podemos leader Tuto 
Quiroga continues to hold on in his position for now.  The 
political struggle will now move to the constituent assembly, 
and the fear and rage of the opposition is increasingly 
palpable.  Senate Vice President Jose Villavicencio asked 
Emboff to pass on the following message: "we are ready to 
defend ourselves."  The question is whether the opposition 
can put together a political alliance that can successfully 
do just that.  End Comment. 
URS