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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 JAKARTA 013426 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
Consulate Medan # 37, 2006 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM KHUM ASEC ID
SUBJECT: ACEH: FRONT RUNNERS IN ELECTION 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: As the official campaign period winds down, 
no pair of candidates has taken a decisive lead in the race 
to become Aceh Governor and Vice Governor. Three pairs of 
candidates -- Malek Raden and Fuad Zakaria, Humam Hamid and 
Hasbi Abdullah, and Azwar Abubakar and Nasir Djamil -- have 
pulled ahead of the other five competitors. Irwandi Yusuf 
and Muhammad Nazar are a distant fourth place, but gained 
ground after GAM leadership decided to withdraw formal 
support for Hamid and become neutral in the race. All 
candidates are promising essentially the same thing: peace 
and prosperity. In private meetings, however, a more nuanced 
picture emerges and differences become apparent in their 
views on critical issues ranging from the Law on Governing 
Aceh (LOGA) and reintegration to implementation of Syariah 
Law - issues of critical importance to Aceh's future.  End 
Summary. 
 
A Three-Way Race 
---------------- 
¶2. (SBU) An International Foundation for Election Systems 
(IFES) poll in late November, revealed that only three pairs 
of candidates can claim more than 10 percent of likely 
voters: Humam Hamid, who is affiliated with United 
Development Party (PPP), with 16.8 percent; Malek Raden, the 
Golkar candidate, with 14.1 percent; and Azwar Abubakar, a 
former acting governor affiliated with the National Mandate 
Party (PAN), with 13.5 percent. Irwandi Yusuf, a former GAM 
leader running as an independent, came in a distant fourth 
place with 7.8 percent. Given that more than a third of 
likely voters could not or would not tell surveyors whom 
they planned to support, there are enough voters in play to 
put any of the candidates over the 25-percent threshold 
needed to win by plurality. 
 
¶3. (SBU) These survey results confirm what most Acehnese 
politicians, ulamas, journalists, and intellectuals have 
been telling us for weeks: the election will come down to 
these pairs of candidates. Many of these same observers, 
however, told us over the last week that GAM's withdrawing 
of its endorsement of Hamid and declaring neutrality in the 
race has given Irwandi Yusuf's campaign some much-needed 
momentum.  (Note:  After several GAM commanders threatened 
to break ranks over against GAM's endorsement of Hamid, 
Malek Mahmoud declared GAM neutral in the race to prevent 
the split from deepening.)  Although still unlikely, a last- 
minute surge could thrust Yusuf into contention. A more 
likely outcome, however, is that Yusuf may siphon away 
enough of the pro-Hamid GAM vote to cost Hamid the election, 
particularly if there is no runoff election when GAM 
sympathizers can rally around a single candidate. 
 
Campaign promises 
----------------- 
¶4. (SBU) Based on stump speeches, it is often difficult to 
tell candidates apart as all the candidates make essentially 
the same promises: peace and prosperity for all. During the 
last several weeks, however, we have spoken with the 
candidates about their views and programs. On critical 
issues ranging from the Law on Governing Aceh and 
reintegration to Syariah law implementation, there are 
subtle but important distinctions among the candidates. 
 
Peace and Reintegration 
----------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) Views on the peace process and reintegration of 
former rebels vary considerably among the candidates. Raden 
and Yusuf hold the most extreme, and opposed, positions, and 
Abubakar and Hamid fall in between those poles. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Malek Raden believes that the Indonesian government 
fulfilled the commitments it made in the Helsinki MOU as 
well as can be reasonably expected. In his view, government 
programs undertaken through bodies like the Aceh 
Reintegration Board are important, but there are practical 
limits to what these targeted programs can accomplish in the 
longer term. While Raden is careful not to say that he 
opposes additional reintegration activities, he appears to 
believe the election represents the culmination of the 
reconciliation process. In the future, programs to benefit 
the entire province, such as his plan to improve public 
health and education, are more important to lasting peace 
 
JAKARTA 00013426  002 OF 003 
 
 
than programs focused narrowly on ex-combatants. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Irwandi Yusuf takes the opposite view.  He worries 
that many people consider the election and the departure of 
the Aceh Monitoring Mission to be the end of the peace 
process. In reality, he says, Jakarta has not fulfilled its 
commitment to compensate GAM combatants or victims of 
conflict and not enough has been done to build trust between 
the Acehnese and the military. (Note: Yusuf opposes the use 
of the word "reintegration" because it implies that GAM 
members are not part of mainstream Acehnese society.) 
 
¶8. (SBU) Yusuf also sees a critical need to bring together 
GAM, civil society, the government, and military in a new 
forum to replace the Commission on Security Arrangements 
(COSA), which was previously chaired by AMM and terminates 
when AMM departs on December 15.  Unless this is done, he 
says, there will be no mechanism to discuss the inevitable 
problems and misunderstandings that will arise between GAM 
and the security forces, and no institutionalized setting 
for confidence building will exist. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Humam Hamid and Azwar Abubakar take similar 
positions on reintegration and peace building.  Both support 
ongoing reintegration activities and have well-defined plans 
to strengthen them further. Both candidates acknowledge that 
the provincial government will have to take the lead in 
providing additional resources for ex-combatants and victims 
of conflict because Jakarta is unlikely to provide further 
resources. 
 
Law Governing Aceh (LOGA) 
------------------------- 
¶10. (SBU) Discussion of the LOGA diminished significantly as 
the election season began.  Among the gubernatorial 
candidates, only Irwandi Yusuf insists publicly that it must 
be amended to conform to the MOU.  In private, Hamid is non- 
committal about the LOGA and, while he does not want to 
offend GAM on the issue, appears willing to accept the 
existing law. Abubakar criticizes the way the LOGA was 
developed but does not appear inclined to make an issue of 
it. He told us privately that he feels some of GAM's 
criticisms of the LOGA amount to little more than "commas." 
Raden's views on the LOGA are not well known, but it is 
widely believed that he would be unwilling to expend 
political capital in Jakarta trying to revise it. 
 
Enforcement of Syariah Law 
-------------------------- 
¶11. (SBU) Although none of the candidates talks publicly 
about implementation of Syariah law, it is one issue in 
which differences among the candidates are most stark. In 
private, Irwandi Yusuf expresses contempt for the way 
Syariah law is enforced. He told us recently that the 
implementation of Syariah law has interrupted the "natural 
development" of Islam in the province and that it was 
undermining Aceh's international reputation. In the event he 
becomes governor, he promises to reform and cut back the 
Office of Syariah Affairs and the religious police. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Abubakar, by contrast, takes a hard line on 
Syariah law. He told us pushing the religious police to all 
corners of Aceh is one of his proudest accomplishments as 
Acting Governor. He discounts the notion that strict 
enforcement of Syariah law might hurt the economy by 
frightening tourists and investors.  On the contrary, he 
said, it is only through "resolute" enforcement of Syariah 
law that the Acehnese can overcome their problems. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Hamid is uncomfortable with the way that Syariah 
has been implemented and said that he would like to see the 
focus of the religious police change from enforcement to 
teaching. "Hard methods," such as those used by the 
religious police, he argued, cause "anger without leading to 
greater devotion." 
 
¶14. (SBU) Raden's detailed views about Syariah are unknown 
but are believed to moderate and consistent with his 
Muhammadiyah background. His running mate for vice governor, 
Fuad Zakaria, told us that he was not aware of problems with 
the Office of Syariah Affairs or the religious police; it 
 
JAKARTA 00013426  003 OF 003 
 
 
did not appear that Syariah was even on his radar screen. 
Pascoe