null
VZCZCXRO5347
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0021/01 3481737
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 141737Z DEC 06
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0037
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0030
RHEFDHP/DIA DHP-1 WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0037
RUEHAD/USDAO ABU DHABI TC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000021 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA/IR; LONDON FOR GAYLE 
BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD; BAKU FOR HAUGEN 
PARIS FOR WALLER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  12/14/2016 
TAGS: IR PGOV
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS AND POWER ALIGNMENTS IN IRAN 
 
REF: A. RPO DUBAI 0008, B. RPO DUBAI 0018 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000021  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence 
Office, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
1.(S//NF) Summary: The vetting of candidates for the December 15 
Assembly of Experts and municipal elections in Iran may be 
almost more significant than the elections themselves, because 
they give a clearer view into power struggles and alignments 
within the Iranian government.  In a world of shifting political 
alliances, the elections are forcing many to support or ally 
themselves with a particular group or person, revealing to a 
greater degree the level of support that the various groups or 
persons can command.  Due to heavy-handed vetting by the 
Guardian Council, control of the Assembly of Experts will remain 
in the hands of traditional conservatives, who on the whole 
support Supreme Leader Khamenei.  Some claim vetting results 
reflect the declining influence of President Ahmadinejad. 
Allies of his and hard-line cleric Mesbah-Yazdi's were largely 
excluded from the Assembly of Experts elections, and reformers 
opposed to Ahmadinejad were approved in large numbers for the 
Tehran municipal elections.  One former high-level MFA official 
told IRPO that Supreme Leader Khamenei specifically asked 
Expediency Council Chair Rafsanjani to stand in the Assembly of 
Experts elections, presumably to balance against Mesbah-Yazdi. 
The former official noted that the results of Tehran municipal 
council elections will reflect Ahmadinejad's popularity level, 
predicting that some of the president's supporters will be 
elected, but not many. End summary. 
 
 
Khamenei attempts to neutralize a possible threat to his 
leadership 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
-------- 
 
2.(C) Guardian Council vetting of candidates for the Assembly of 
Experts election predictably excluded a number of reformers, but 
supporters of the hard-line conservative cleric Mesbah-Yazdi, 
including the cleric's son, were also largely disqualified from 
candidacy.  This follows speculation all year that Mesbah-Yazdi 
- who is closely allied with President Ahmadinejad - was 
attempting to gain control of the Assembly of Experts with an 
eye toward replacing Khamenei as Supreme Leader, either 
succeeding Khamenei or possibly forcing him out of office. 
 
3.(S//NF) One former high-level Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
official from the Khatami government told IRPO that Supreme 
Leader Khamenei specifically asked Expediency Council Chair 
Rafsanjani to stand in the Assembly of Experts election, 
presumably with the intent of balancing against Mesbah-Yazdi. 
(The former official's views on the current political situation 
are reported septel.)  The former official commented that 
despite a longstanding rivalry between the two men, Khamenei and 
Rafsanjani are pillars of the system, and they cooperate when 
necessary.  The former official alleged that the vetting of 
allies of Mesbah-Yazdi and Ahmadinejad from the Assembly of 
Experts election is a sign of the declining influence of 
President Ahmadinejad.  Rafsanjani, wary of the possibility of 
another electoral loss and potential elections tampering by 
Ahmadinejad, agreed on condition that Khamenei make a public 
statement against interference in the elections.   According to 
the former official,  Ahmadinejad defied the Supreme Leader and 
orchestrated some tampering, such as  tearing down of election 
banners.  Asked whether fraud or electoral tampering was likely 
during the elections, the former official said the possibility 
of fraud was low, but did not give a clear reason for that 
opinion. 
 
 
Tehran municipal elections a referendum on Ahmadinejad 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
4.(S//NF) The Tehran municipal council elections have turned 
into a political battleground between conservatives, with 
supporters of President Ahmadinejad on one side, and backers of 
Tehran Mayor Qalibaf on the other.  The two sides have entered 
opposing electoral lists, and also compete with a third 
conservative list, comprised largely of traditional 
conservatives.  Facing the divided conservatives in Tehran is a 
united list of reformist candidates, who may have a greater 
chance of success against a split conservative vote.  The former 
official attached particular significance to the Tehran 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000021  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
municipal council elections, saying they would serve as a 
referendum on Ahmadinejad.   He predicted that some of 
Ahmadinejad's supporters would be elected to the Tehran council, 
but not many.  Qalibaf supporters and reformists would make up 
the bulk of the council, he opined, saying it was also likely 
that Qalibaf would be confirmed as mayor for the next full term. 
 Qalibaf would wield more influence if he is reconfirmed as 
mayor, he claimed, and balance against Ahmadinejad to a greater 
degree. 
 
5.(S//NF) Comment: The former official's comments about 
Khamenei's request to Rafsanjani for help in balancing against 
Ahmadinejad and Mesbah-Yazdi illustrates the skilled 
behind-the-scenes political maneuvering that has kept Khamenei 
in his position for so long.  His request to Rafsanjani and the 
exclusion of Mesbah-Yazdi's supporters from the Assembly of 
Experts elections, are indications that the Supreme Leader does 
consider Mesbah-Yazdi a possible threat to his position. 
Regarding electoral tampering, it will be interesting to see 
whether the former official's assertion that fraud is unlikely 
will hold true. 
BURNS