VZCZCXRO2908
PP RUEHDE RUEHDIR
DE RUEHDIR #0018/01 3461616
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P R 121616Z DEC 06
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0030
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0023
RHEFDHP/DIA DHP-1 WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0033
RUEHAD/USDAO ABU DHABI TC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000018 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GAYLE; BAKU FOR HAUGEN 
BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD; PARIS FOR WALLER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  12/12/2016 
TAGS: IR PGOV
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE RIVALRIES AND MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN IRAN 
 
REF: RPO DUBAI 0008 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence 
Office, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
1.(C) Summary: Nationwide elections for municipal councils in 
Iran will be held December 15, along with the Assembly of 
Experts elections.  The elections are being held concurrently to 
save costs and to increase voter turnout, which is nonetheless 
expected to be low.  The municipal councils have little 
institutional power, but they select the mayor of the 
municipality, which can be an influential activity, particularly 
in Tehran.  President Ahmadinejad was not nationally known when 
the municipal council named him as mayor of Tehran in 2003. 
Reformists were largely disqualified from the municipal council 
elections across the country, with the notable exception of 
Tehran where they remain competitive.  Reform groups have 
created a single electoral list for Tehran, while various 
conservative groups remain divided across several lists.  A 
rivalry between President Ahmadinejad and Tehran Mayor (and 2005 
presidential candidate) Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf is playing out in 
the Tehran municipal elections.  The results nation-wide, 
depending on the degree of tampering, may give a clearer view of 
the political strength of various  conservatives and be a rough 
reflection of Ahmadinejad's popularity.  In Tehran, the results 
may also indicate if reformers' efforts to work cooperatively 
pay dividends.  End summary. 
 
2.(C) Despite being mandated in the constitution, municipal 
councils were only established  in 1999 by President Khatami to 
stimulate grass-roots political participation.  The second 
municipal elections were held in 2003, and a public disappointed 
by reformist failures elected mostly conservatives.  The 
December 15 elections will be the country's third for municipal 
councils.  The municipal councils have little institutional 
power in themselves.  The central government retains control of 
most public services, such as provision of water and 
electricity.  However, it is the responsibility of the councils 
to select the mayor, which can be an influential activity, 
particularly in Tehran. 
 
3.(C) The mayor of Tehran is an increasingly important political 
position, which makes the election of the body that selects the 
mayor more significant.  The incumbent, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, 
is a well-connected conservative, former IRGC and a former 
commander of the Law Enforcement Forces (the national police). 
Qalibaf competed against Ahmadinejad in the 2005 presidential 
election and was picked by some analysts to be the winner.  It 
is rumored that Supreme Leader Khamenei arranged for Qalibaf to 
become the mayor of Tehran following his defeat.  Qalibaf has an 
adversarial relationship with President Ahmadinejad, who was his 
predecessor as mayor.  The Tehran municipal council selected the 
relatively unknown Ahmadinejad to be mayor in 2003.  The rivalry 
between the president and Qalibaf is being played out in 
Tehran's municipal council elections, with supporters of 
Ahmadinejad and groups backing Qalibaf creating competing 
electoral lists.  By contrast, 18 reformist groups have 
reportedly managed to consolidate their efforts and have created 
a single electoral list, which may increase their chance of 
success against a split conservative vote. 
 
4.(C) Reformists remain on the ballot in the Tehran elections 
but were largely disqualified throughout the rest of the 
country.  Candidates were vetted by parliamentary elections 
committees, comprised of members of the conservative-dominated 
legislature.  Iranian press reported that four reformist 
candidates in the northern city of Rasht were disqualified after 
the elections campaign had begun, meaning they had previously 
been approved but were disqualified on further consideration. 
Some observers speculate that reformers in Tehran were spared 
the heavy vetting in order to distract attention from 
large-scale reformist disqualifications throughout the rest of 
the country. 
 
5.(C) Voter participation in the municipal elections is 
predicted to be relatively low, since the turnout in the last 
elections in 2003 was disappointing.  Differing statistics were 
reported, but most place voter turnout in 2003 at around 30% of 
eligible voters, nearly half the participation levels of the 
first municipal council elections in 1999.  The municipal 
elections and the Assembly of Experts elections are combined for 
the first time, in part for cost savings, and in part out of 
hope that the more popular municipal elections will boost 
turn-out for the Assembly of Experts elections. 
 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000018  002 OF 002 
 
 
6.(C) Comment: The municipal elections and the Assembly of 
Experts elections are significantly less important to the 
immediate political direction of Iran than the presidential or 
Majles elections (which the Majles is debating holding 
concurrently).  They do, however, provide a window into 
political dynamics in Iran.  The election campaigns serve to 
illustrate political alliances -- and ever-growing divisions 
--among conservatives.  In the case of Tehran municipal 
elections, it also shows some success among  reform groups in 
regrouping following their loss of the legislature in 2004 and 
the presidency in 2005.  This should not be read as an 
indication of swiftly approaching change, but bears noting with 
an eye toward the 2008 parliamentary elections, particularly if 
reformists gain control of the Tehran municipal council. The 
results of the Tehran elections may also provide a rough 
reflection of President Ahmadinejad's current popularity in the 
capital city.  It will also be significant to see the extent of 
meddling in the elections by IRGC, Basij, or others.  Some 
contacts allege the IRGC is divided in support between 
Ahmadinejad and Qalibaf.  If true, it will be interesting to see 
in whose favor any meddling will be. 
BURNS