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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 023634 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2016 
TAGS: PGOV ECON CU
SUBJECT: CUBAN PARLIAMENT: NO FIDEL; RAUL ADMITS PROBLEMS 
 
 
HAVANA 00023634  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Buddy Williams; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Friday December 22 was Cuba's annual 
parliamentary session, at which Raul Castro permitted public 
admission of shortcomings in transportation, agriculture and 
housing, just after the economy minister bragged that Cuba 
grew by 12.5 percent in 2006.  Parliamentary president 
Ricardo Alarcon dubbed 2007 "Year 49 of the Revolution," and 
praised the GOC for its progress despite unrelenting U.S. 
pressure.  Fidel Castro was a no-show, and did not even send 
a message.  The public is unimpressed:  Neither by the fake 
sincerity in seeming to address the country's obvious 
problems, nor by the claim of 12.5 percent growth.  Experts 
we contacted provided data that contradict the parliamentary 
expositions on transportation and agriculture.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) The Cuban parliament, or "National Assembly of Peoples 
Power" (ANPP) meets briefly, once a year in late December to 
take stock of the calendar year.  Last year, with Fidel 
Castro sitting on the dais, Foreign Minister Felipe Perez 
Roque gave a memorable address regarding passing the 
communist torch to a younger generation.  This year the 
themes were much more mundane, touching the issues that 
concern most Cubans:  Transportation, housing, and food.  The 
parts of the proceedings that were televised gave the 
impression of debate in committees, followed by a public 
airing of problems in those sectors. 
 
-- Housing:  Council of Ministers President Carlos Lage gave 
the regime credit for building over 100,000 units, and 
promised 70,000 in 2007; but he admitted deficiencies in the 
production chain; 
 
-- Agriculture:  Economy Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez, in his 
address that bragged about 12.5 percent economic growth, 
acknowledged production shortfalls in basic agriculture and 
bottlenecks in distribution of farm produce to market; 
 
-- Transportation:  Minister Jorge Luis Sierra, following an 
introduction by Raul Castro, who recognized that the sector 
was on the verge of collapse, diagnosed the problems:  theft 
of bus-fares, low investment, subsidized fares, and 
insufficient attention to maintenance.  When he finished, 
promising results by 2008, Raul Castro said, pounding his 
fist on the table, that the sector needed "...more 
discipline.  Without discipline, nothing runs." 
 
¶3. (U) Jose Luis Rodriguez's 12.5 percent growth speech 
acknowledged that Cuba's record-keeping, which attributes 3 
percent of its growth to state-provided education and health 
services, was still at least 9.5 percent, by traditional 
methods, "way ahead of the average of 5.3 percent for all of 
Latin America."  He then said that the GOC "doesn't lie or 
manipulate its economic statistics," and explained that the 
growth was due to increased energy efficiencies and 
investments all across the Cuban economy. 
 
¶4. (U) No Fidel:  Fidel Castro was not present for any of the 
ANPP session.  Ricardo Alarcon presided, and provided the 
usual language that praised Fidel Castro's inspiration, 
blamed the USA for Cuba's problems, and urged that the "Five 
Heroes" (convicted spies) be freed and returned to Cuba.  All 
speeches from the floor included an obligatory "Viva Fidel," 
even as those with speaking roles all saluted Raul Castro as 
the senior official present.  Alarcon said that, as 
customary, the ANPP would give a name to the new calendar 
year, which in 2007 will be  "Year 49 of the Revolution." 
2006 has been "Year of the Energy Revolution." 
 
¶5. (C) Reality Checks:  Pol-Econ Counselor asked Ramon Vinas 
(protect), a retired GOC economist, what to make of the 12.5 
percent growth figure.  Vinas said it was not to be believed, 
beginning with the health/education sleight of hand and 
continuing through the obvious poverty-stricken reality that 
most Cubans are living.  He acknowledged that Cuba was 
accepting large subsidies from Venezuela and that the price 
of nickel had increased; but most of the rest of the economy 
was flat, he added.  He then zeroed in on the transportation 
sector, which is probably the single biggest source of 
frustration to average Cubans.  In the late 1980s, he said, 
transportation was an enormous problem.  At the time, the 
metro-Havana area had 2000 buses, of which 700 were in 
service.  Today, metro-Havana has about 600 buses, of which 
maybe 200-250 were in service.  A few hundred extra buses 
donated from China were simply not going to solve the 
 
HAVANA 00023634  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
problem, even before they start breaking down, he concluded. 
 
-- Alejandro Gonzalez (protect), a manager in the 
Agricultural distribution sector, told Pol-Econ Counselor 
that no statistics the GOC provides in agriculture should 
ever be believed.  He said that if an area produces 200 units 
of Crop X, the GOC will announce 3,000, creating an 
atmosphere of skepticism in the workforce, the large majority 
of whom learn to steal from the food distribution chain to 
make ends meet.  (Note:  Neither Vinas nor Gonzalez are 
dissidents; their perspectives on the Cuban economy come from 
overseas travel and having relatives in the United States. 
End note.) 
 
-- Roberto de Miranda, a bona-fide dissident, commented that 
Cuban housing is essentially crumbling.  He could find no 
examples of urban renewal in his Central Havana neighborhood, 
where it is obvious to any visitor that buildings are on the 
verge of collapse and the streets are moonscapes of potholes. 
 De Miranda also pointed out that to the extent that there 
are any housing renewal projects at all, they would benefit 
regime loyalists, of which he was proud not to be one. 
 
¶6. (C) Comment:  There might be some significance to the 
parliament publicly confessing shortcomings in housing, 
transportation and agriculture, even if juxtaposed with an 
over-the-top assertion of 12.5 percent annual growth.  On the 
understanding that Raul Castro and the ruling clique would 
have scripted all the speaking lines at the ANPP, our 
assessment is that Raul Castro is trying to pass himself off 
as a hard-headed problem solver, open to debate and 
constructive criticism.  He used the same approach a few days 
earlier at the annual University Youth Federation conference, 
which was also unquestionably scripted.  It's not a bad 
strategy, at least on the public relations side, since it 
appeals to Cubans' own frustrations with the sectors 
highlighted during the parliamentary session.  However, Raul 
Castro's solution -- more discipline and efficiency -- 
promises to be a loser, as long as he maintains a rigid 
state-run economy.  To admit otherwise would be to dub 2007 
"The Year That Communism Ends In Cuba," which Raul Castro 
would not permit, certainly not before his brother dies. 
PARMLY