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C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 023623 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE DEPT FOR WHA/CCA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINT ECON KDEM CU
SUBJECT: CUBA: REGIME ECONOMIC THINKING, PLANNING CONTINUE 
TO EVOLVE 
 
REF: HAVANA 23606 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: COM Michael E. Parmly for Reason 1.4(d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  A well-informed off-island source briefed us 
on December 20 on what he had learned of the evolving 
activity within the regime leadership to address the economic 
situation.  Our source reports that the regime for the moment 
is focusing new ideas in just two provinces -- Pinar del Rio 
and Villa Clara.  Our source reports that the top leadership 
in those provinces is consulting more with farmers in 
particular.  The Spanish Ambassador reports similar 
ebullience in re-examining economic policy in general.  We 
find the reports credible, and see them as pointing toward a 
new and very different management and leadership style of 
Raul and his clique.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) A well-informed source told us December 20 of further 
details on the evolving thinking within the regime on 
economic policy.  (For background, see reftel.)  Our source 
said he had learned of concentrated efforts in two provinces 
-- Pinar del Rio, on the western side of Cuba, and Villa 
Clara, in the island's center -- to try new methods of 
economic governance and management.  Our source pointed to 
two specific manifestations of the new style: 
 
--The agricultural sector was the main focus.  Party leaders 
in the province have had a series of meetings with local 
farmers, at which the leaders asked what kinds of policies 
the farmers would need to see in order to increase their 
production.  The answer they got back, according to our 
source, was unequivocal:  Fix the price structure.  The 
farmers reportedly complained that at current prices, they 
had no incentive whatsoever to work harder to get production 
up. 
 
--More broadly, however, the top leadership in the two 
provinces had been holding a series of meetings on more 
general topics than just farming or even economics.  Again, 
our source told us, the style was different:  Listening, 
rather than talking.  The comments the officials heard were 
predictable, our source reported.  Transport and housing were 
the main complaints of the population. 
 
¶3. (C) Although the account above is single-source, we find 
it credible.  Since at least October, diplomatic sources have 
told us of "new thinking" experiments in Villa Clara, wherein 
the population was being given greater leeway to pursue 
individual economic initiatives.  In addition, reftel reports 
a single-source comment from a Minrex official about the 
kinds of thinking being displayed.  At an outbrief on Codel 
Flake with the European Chiefs of Mission, Spanish Ambassador 
Carlos Alonso Zaldivar, who is consistently among the best 
informed in the dip corps, told us he understands there is a 
broad re-think, at least about economic policy, within Cuban 
ruling circles.  Alonso indicated his sources are reporting 
ongoing intense discussion behind the scenes, although his 
sense is that the discussion is at present confined to only 
the highest levels of the Cuban Government.  Alonso commented 
that much remains frozen by the continuing presence, however 
weakened, of Fidel on the scene, but he opined that the 
re-thinking is at least an indication that at some level of 
the regime, there is a recognition that things are not 
working right, notwithstanding the regime's boasting in 
public about Cuba's economic and social stability. 
 
¶4. (C) Comment:  When it comes to policy, we are in the 
"reading the tea leaves" phase of the post-Castro era.  To 
date, the clique around Raul has shown a stubborn 
determination to eschew any meaningful gestures, be they 
economic, social or political, towards the Cuban people.  The 
reports described here would indicate that at least someone 
at the top senses that pursuing an ignore-the-people approach 
is not the wisest way to retain power.  It is worth noting 
that Villa Clara remains a bastion of dissent, where acts of 
defiance to the regime have become more frequent of late. 
PARMLY