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C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 023564 
 
 
"NOTE PROCESSED AS IS PER EAP BARBARA BARTSCH-ALLEN" 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2016 
TAGS: CU PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: RAUL DELIVERS CASTRO BIRTHDAY SPEECH 
 
REF: A) HAVANA 23548 B) HAVANA 23552 
 
Classified By: COM MICHAEL E. PARMLY, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
1.(C) Summary:  Raul Castro's speech before the December 2 
military parade marking Fidel Castro's 80th birthday and the 
50th anniversary of the 1956 Granma invasion was a missed 
opportunity on two fronts: to start to turn the page on the 
Fidel era; and to make a sincere overture to the United 
States, if that was his intent.  Raul proffered no obituary 
for Fidel nor commented on his brother,s absence, but also 
did not fully assert his own authority, perpetuating the 
state of limbo that has hung over Cuba since July 31. 
Nowhere does he address the Cuban people or speak to their 
concerns.  Instead, he expends the bulk of his speech in a 
caustic anti-U.S. diatribe.  The press has focused on one 
paragraph of the speech where Raul, repeating language from 
his August 18th "Granma" interview, calls for improved 
relations with the U.S. 
 
2.(C) Summary continued:  An estimated 300,000 people 
participated in the military parade along with and array of 
missile launchers and MIG flyovers.  Largely a command 
performance, USINT observers noted a lack of revolutionary 
fervor though many in the crowd expressed personal sentiments 
for Fidel and turned to see whether he had appeared on the 
reviewing stand.   End Summary. 
 
FIDEL A NO SHOW 
 
3.(C) Fidel Castro was too ill to appear at his own 
mega-birthday party, which was delayed almost four months to 
begin with.  Raul Castro's speech hardly talks about his 
brother, nor offers any explanation for his absence from the 
long anticipated 80th birthday celebration.  Fidel's own 
apology for not appearing, read to a TV audience Wednesday 
evening, was a non-sequitur that emphasized energy-saving 
measures (ref b).  After a perfunctory homage to the elder 
Castro at the beginning of the speech, Raul turned backwards 
in history to the 1956 Granma invasion, and quoted Fidel's 
remarks 31 years earlier to the first Communist Party 
Congress. 
 
4.(C) At the same time, Raul did not use this critical 
opportunity to speak directly to the Cuban people in his own 
right as the new leader of Cuba.  All he came up with was an 
appeal for unity of the people, armed forces and Communist 
party.  He avoided any talk about the future or about the 
economic concerns of most ordinary Cubans.  This performance 
is consistent with Raul Castro's previous public appearances 
which demonstrated no new direction since Fidel Castro's 
incapacitation was announced on July 31st. 
 
FOCUS ON THE U.S. 
 
5.(C) Raul Castro made most of his speech an acerbic and 
puerile tirade against the U.S.  He said since the fall of 
the Soviet Union, the United States has exercised 
"unprecedented hostility and aggression" to asphyxiate Cuba 
economically and undermine the Revolution.  Yet Cuba, he 
continued, "defied those who suggested that generations of 
Cubans would abandon the ideals of the Revolution."  He 
lauded the "maturity and confidence in the Revolution the 
Cuban people have demonstrated during the last four months." 
 "Despite maneuvers and pressure from the United States," 
Raul continued, "Cuba has enhanced its prestige 
internationally as leader of the NAM and in the UN General 
Assembly with the vote against the embargo."  He condemned 
U.S. "neo-liberal" policies in Latin America "that popular 
majorities have rejected" in Venezuela and elsewhere. 
 
¶6.    (C) Raul reviewed the "U.S. administration,s 
adventurism in the international arena" and described our 
November 7 mid-term election as a rejection of these 
policies.  He denounced in lurid detail the war in Iraq, and 
concluded that in the eyes of the world the "so-called" war 
on terrorism "has been a humiliating failure for the U.S." 
Raul called upon the U.S. government to learn the lesson that 
"power based on intimidation and terror brings terrible 
consequences." 
 
OLIVE BRANCH? 
 
¶7.    (C)  Following this tirade and almost in the same 
breath, Raul repeated his offer to the U.S. to improve 
relations.  Cuba would agree to "resolve prolonged 
differences on the negotiating table" with the United States 
through direct dialogue.  However, as stated in his August 18 
"Granma" interview, Cuba would insist on relations based on 
"equality, reciprocity, non-interference and mutual 
respect."  Raul then added that the Cuban government is 
"ready to wait patiently for common sense to take hold in 
circles of power in Washington." In the meantime, Raul 
concluded, "Cuba will continue to consolidate all levels of 
its national defense structure." 
 
MASSES PARTICIPATE IN THE SPECTACLE 
 
8.(C) As with all official parades, the 300,000 or so Cubans 
who turned out for the celebration were obliged to 
demonstrate support for the regime.  Arrayed in red shirts, 
the crowd spilled over into the Plaza de la Revolution. 
While they chanted "Viva Fidel, Viva Raul, Down with 
Imperialism" at appropriate times during the speech, there 
was a demonstrable lack of revolutionary fervor.  The parade 
took on the guise of a social event with megaphone-led 
chanting and much chatter that no one seemed to take 
seriously.  As the marchers passed the reviewing stand all 
eyes turned to see if Fidel was present.  Many in the crowd 
held up hand-made posters wishing him a happy birthday or 
expressing personal sentiments about the man.  The only thing 
that mattered to most ordinary Cubans present or watching 
from home, was whether Fidel appeared or not.  The reaction 
among the crowd to Raul's speech was disengagement.  The 
military flyovers were the only source of genuine excitement. 
 
9.(C) French and Canadian diplomats who were invited to 
participate in the ceremony said they took note of the 
preponderance of military hardware on display.  The French 
Military attach reported that the Cubans did a good job to 
keep the old Soviet era equipment running, not unlike Cuban 
mechanics keeping 1950s era U.S.-model cars running.  One 
tank apparently stalled or ran out of gas, which was not 
shown on TV;  others drove for a short distance, then parked 
on the side of the parade route, perhaps paying homage to 
2006 being Cuba,s "year of energy efficiency." 
 
10.(C) Comment:  The December 2 activities made clear that 
Fidel cannot return to center stage.  Yet Raul presented 
himself as second-in command and head of the armed forces, 
rather than as the new leader of Cuba.  He chose to make this 
speech, arguably his most important public appearance since 
assuming power, about the U.S. rather than about the Cuban 
people or their future.  His rhetoric castigating the U.S. 
administration demonstrated a lack of sincerity in calling 
for better relations.  The media and diplomatic community 
want to create a buzz about this, missing the point that 
Raul's conditions are a non-starter.  The stage-managed 
parade and homage to Fidel were trademark totalitarian 
performances, and should call into question the key issue in 
Cuba,s upcoming transition:  How do they get from here to 
legitimacy?  Raul, who personifies illegitimacy (in every 
sense), cannot take them there. 
 
 
PARMLY