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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001429 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR S. HILL 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: COLTART DISCUSSES OPPOSITION STRATEGY AMIDST 
ZANU-PF PANIC 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (C) Pro-Senate MDC MP David Coltart on November 29 told 
the Ambassador that ZANU-PF parliamentarians were in a state 
of panic as public corruption allegations had become weapons 
in the ongoing succession battle.  The MP agreed with the 
Ambassador that the GOZ had been weakened as a result of the 
battle and the MDC needed to take advantage.  To that end, 
Coltart said reconciliation talks between the two MDC 
factions were progressing and that the chances of forming a 
coalition ahead of the next planned elections were good.  End 
Summary. 
 
------------------------- 
ZANU-PF Turning On Itself 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) The silver lining to the MDC split, Coltart told the 
Ambassador, was that it created a sense of security within 
the ruling party, which allowed the underlying succession 
tensions to boil to the surface.  These tensions were clearly 
visible in Parliament, where Coltart said the majority party 
was in disarray.  Allegations of high-level corruption in the 
national bus company ZUPCO, the parastatal steel firm ZISCO, 
and most recently the import of substandard fertilizer had 
become the new tools of the succession battle, instilling 
panic across the ruling party's ranks.  Coltart opined that 
the ongoing revelations of ministerial-level graft indicated 
that the intra-ZANU-PF battles were still raging. 
 
¶3.  (C) Amidst this ruling party infighting, Coltart said 
that former-Finance Minister Simba Makoni might emerge as a 
compromise succession candidate.  Vice President Joyce Mujuru 
had not proven herself a worthy frontrunner and Rural Housing 
Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa had failed to garner popular 
support with his proxies Jonathan Moyo and Daniel Shumba. 
Drawing parallels to the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev, 
Coltart speculated that a Makoni presidency might undertake 
reforms that would sweep the ZANU-PF system away, even though 
Makoni himself might not survive a tumultuous transformation. 
 
---------------------------- 
Opposition Adapting Strategy 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Coltart agreed with the Ambassador's suggestion that 
the democratic opposition rethink its strategies in light of 
the heated ZANU-PF succession race.  Civil disobedience was 
still important to maintain pressure on the regime, but both 
factions of the opposition needed to think about the end game 
and plan for a ZANU-PF successor who will inevitably need to 
reach out to the West for financial support to revive the 
economy.  The Ambassador asked whether constitutional reform 
was really essential or whether that what matter was who 
holds power.  Coltart said he still favored first enacting a 
new constitution and then conducting 
internationally-supervised, free and fair elections, but 
conceded the ultimate goal was to unseat ZANU-PF in any way 
possible. 
 
¶5.  (C) Agreeing with the Ambassador's suggestion that 
ZANU-PF relished a divided opposition, Coltart said that 
reconciliation talks between the two MDC factions were 
progressing.  The two sides have already agreed to a code of 
 
HARARE 00001429  002 OF 002 
 
 
conduct and the negotiating teams met as recently as the past 
weekend.  Coltart anticipated that a reconciliation 
commission likely would be established in January to address 
intra-opposition violence conducted by all sides.  The 
commission would then pave the way for an opposition 
coalition going into the next national election, anticipated 
in 2008.  Under this plan, the two factions would agree to an 
electoral team and to split ministerial posts. 
 
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Comment 
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¶6.  (C) As Coltart notes, the recent spate of corruption 
allegations indicates that ZANU-PF is perhaps even more 
factionalized than the opposition.  Even more encouraging is 
the role that the parliamentary committees, supported by the 
USG-funded SUNY program, are having in exposing this graft; 
for instance, a ruling party committee chairman recently 
called for the impeachment of Industry Minister Obert Mpofu 
for giving false testimony on the status of ZISCO and Speaker 
of Parliament John Nkomo on November 30 allowed the 
investigation to go forward.  This succession-related carnage 
within ZANU-PF creates real openings for the opposition, 
which must now play its cards carefully lest a premature move 
prompt the ruling party to circle the wagons and once again 
focus its ire on regime opponents. 
DELL