VZCZCXRO0931
RR RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHBS #4195/01 3550919
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 210919Z DEC 06
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004195 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016 
TAGS: BE PREL SU
SUBJECT: SOLANA TELLS NATSIOS EU AND US NEED JOINT 
ACTIONABLE PLAN FOR DARFUR 
 
 
Classified By: PolMinCouns Laurence Wohlers for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
1.(C) Summary: In a Dec. 15 meeting, EU Foreign Policy Chief 
Javier Solana told visiting Special Envoy for Sudan Andrew 
Natsios the EU and US must stop making idle threats that 
cannot be backed by action. He called for a new Darfur 
strategy that is "visible, doable, and (then) done," and 
pledged to come with several proposals when he visits 
Washington January 3-5. Solana and Natsios agreed they face 
daunting challenges including a lack of leverage with 
President Bashir, who steadfastly refuses to accept UN 
peacekeepers and makes deals with regional leaders that 
effectively block them from acting against him. In a separate 
meeting, EU Commissioner Louis Michel told Natsios he would 
like to convene an EU-Arab summit to draw in Arab countries 
as partners, and he would like to approach conflicts in the 
Horn of Africa as an interconnected whole. Another EU 
official suggested regular ministerial dialogues on Sudan 
similar to those already taking place on Cote d'Ivoire, All 
sides concurred that the end of UNSYG Kofi Annan's term could 
leave an unfortunate global leadership void on the Darfur 
issue. Michel, Solana, and Natsios agreed there are serious 
management and corruption problems with the current AMIS 
force, and that both the EU and US are running out of money 
to continue AMIS funding. End Summary. 
 
Current Situation Grim 
---------------------- 
 
2.(C) Natsios, stopping in Brussels on his way back from 
Sudan, told EU leaders that conditions in Sudan have 
deteriorated markedly since his last visit two months ago. He 
said the US is committed to seeing outgoing UNSYG Annan's 
Darfur plan implemented, but that plan is trapped in a 
Catch-22. The Annan plan cannot be implemented without 
President Bashir's acceptance of UN peacekeepers, but Bashir 
would find it difficult to back down now from his public 
refusal to accept the peacekeepers. Solana, the EU's High 
Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, said 
Bashir is ignoring the US and EU because they have made 
repeated idle threats but have no real leverage to implement 
them. He called for fresh approaches that are realistic and 
look at all the regional pieces to the Darfur situation. Once 
the USG labeled the killings in Darfur a genocide, it became 
unconscionable not to seek solutions, Solana said. 
 
Regional Players 
---------------- 
 
3.(C) An overarching theme of Natsios's discussions with EU 
officials concerned the role of regional players, many of 
whom have been skillfully co-opted by Bashir. They include 
Nigeria, where Bashir has reportedly told President Obasanjo 
he will stay out of Nigerian politics if Obasanjo stays out 
of Sudanese affairs, Natsios said. Bashir reportedly told 
African Union (AU) President Konare that northern Mali could 
become an outpost for radicals and terrorists if the AU 
intervenes against Bashir's wishes in Sudan, said Natsios. 
Bashir is currently president of the Arab League and has used 
that position to focus the attention of Arab countries on the 
Middle East and away from Sudan. Even in tiny Burundi, the 
president of the party is a powerful Muslim who has forged 
close relations with the leaders of Sudan, Iran, and Chad, 
and threatens the power of President Ndayizeye on a daily 
basis, Michel said. Chad and Libya also wield important 
influence in Darfur, Natsios said. Meanwhile, on the economic 
front, China continues to work closely with Sudan while 
refusing to engage in any political discussions about human 
rights or protection of civilians. Adding all these pieces 
together, the question becomes whether the US and EU are 
relevant to Bashir's view of Sudan and whether he has any 
incentive to listen. 
 
Getting Bashir's Attention 
-------------------------- 
 
4.(C) Solana and Michel, meeting separately with Natsios, 
said one roadblock to Bashir's cooperation has been Bashir's 
belief that the EU and US are seeking regime change in Sudan. 
Natsios said the US administration is not seeking regime 
change, but some members of Congress, as well as NGOs, 
including the International Crisis Group, have called for 
regime change, making Bashir reluctant to believe the 
official USG position. Michel suggested the way to get Bashir 
 
BRUSSELS 00004195  002 OF 002 
 
 
to listen is to talk concretely about Bashir's future and the 
future of Sudan. Bashir fears that UN peacekeepers will 
arrest Sudanese leaders and turn them over to the 
International Criminal Court (ICC). Natsios said Secretary 
Rice has tried to turn that argument on its head by saying 
the US could turn over all evidence of war crimes to the ICC 
unless Bashir allows UN peacekeepers into Sudan. 
 
¶5. (C) At President Bashir's request, Natsios said he agreed 
to support a UNSC Presidential Statement (PRST) reaffirming 
the Abuja and Addis framework agreements. More radical 
leverage points, including implementation of a no-fly zone 
over Sudan, blocking the Port of Sudan, and initiating 
petroleum sanctions were discussed by Natsios and EU 
officials as possible, but at the moment unlikely, options. 
Natsios said the US may be willing to use more coercive 
measures, but not unilaterally. All sides lamented the end of 
Annan's term as UNSYG, saying it will take time for the new 
SYG to reach Annan's level of familiarity with the players 
and issues. Michel believes there is room to engage Arab 
countries on Sudan if the EU and US talk to them as serious 
and trusted partners. He would like to convene an EU-Arab 
summit, but said he would likely encounter resistance from 
some EU member states. Natsios said President Bush has called 
President Mubarak seeking support on resolving Darfur but has 
seen little result. 
 
Poor Management of AMIS 
----------------------- 
 
6.(C) In addition to the political problems, Natsios and EU 
officials agreed there are serious management problems with 
the current AMIS force, including rampant corruption and lack 
of professionalism. Much of the money given by the US and EU 
is simply unaccounted for. Natsios urged EU officials to 
continue calling for the replacement of AMIS Force Commander 
Major General Luke Aprezi, despite resistance from his home 
country of Nigeria. Michel said he has raised it with Konare 
several times, but Aprezi remains in place. Both Natsios and 
EU officials said their governments are running out of money 
to continue funding AMIS. The US has about $20 million left, 
but may find the new Democrat-controlled Congress unwilling 
to approve further allocations given existing corruption. 
Solana and Michel said they face similar problems convincing 
the public that more money for AMIS is money well spent. 
Natsios said he is looking into the possibility of disbursing 
the funds through the UN system so that it would face 
stricter accounting controls. 
 
Next Steps 
---------- 
 
¶7. (C) Koen Vervaeke, a Solana advisor on Africa policy, 
suggested regular ministerial meetings on Sudan along the 
lines of monthly ministerials that take place on issues in 
Cote d'Ivoire. He said there has been a high level of 
participation from African ministers as well as the 
international community, and the meetings have been very 
useful. Solana said he and his advisors will brainstorm in 
the next couple of weeks and come to Washington January 3-5 
with some proposals for a joint US-EU strategy on Darfur. 
 
MCKINLEY 
. 
 
.