VZCZCXRO9682
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHBP #1433/01 3540905
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 200905Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAMAKO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6623
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 001433 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016 
TAGS: PREL PINR PINS PGOV ML
SUBJECT: WHEN POLITICS AND COINCIDENCE COLLIDE: MALI'S 
THIRD LARGEST PARTY ENDORSES ATT 
 
REF: BAMAKO 01361 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Aaron Sampson for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.(C)  Summary:  Mali's third largest party, the Union for 
the Republic and Democracy (URD), has endorsed the 
re-election bid of President Amadou Toumani Toure (ATT).  By 
casting its lot with ATT rather than running a presidential 
candidate of its own, the URD ended speculation that party 
founder Soumaila Cisse, a political heavyweight who finished 
second to ATT in 2002, might reverse his decision to sit out 
the 2007 campaign.  Cisse has passed the period since his 
defeat as president of Commission of the West African 
Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA).  With his term coming to 
a close, ATT reportedly lobbied UEMOA to give Cisse a second 
four year term, an outcome that may formally come to light 
during a Heads of State conference in Senegal in January. 
While no one has yet overtly linked the URD's endorsement 
with ATT's efforts to ensure a second UEMOA mandate for 
Cisse, the timing of the two events was likely no 
coincidence.  End Summary. 
 
----------------------- 
A Personal Quid Pro Quo 
----------------------- 
 
2.(C)  On December 2 the URD chose to endorse ATT's 
re-election bid rather than run a candidate of its own for 
the 2007 presidential election.  The announcement ended 
speculation that URD founder Soumaila Cisse, who was ATT's 
second round opponent during the 2002 presidential election, 
was reconsidering his decision to sit out the 2007 campaign. 
It also ended several months of negotiations between the URD, 
ADEMA and ATT over political support in return for 
Ministerial posts in a new ATT government.  The URD, ADEMA 
and ATT have been working since September to hammer out a 
joint political "platform," now known as the Alliance for 
Democracy and Progress (ADP), designed to catapult ATT to 
victory in 2007.  The URD, ADEMA and 12 other political 
parties officially signed the ADP document - which appears to 
be nothing more than a statement of mutual support for ATT's 
re-election - on December 8. 
 
3.(C)  The URD originally intended to join the ADP in 
November but hesitated following ADEMA vice-president 
Soumeylou Boubey Maiga's decision to defy his own party's 
leadership and enter the presidential race (reftel).  Maiga's 
defection from ADEMA, and the support he has subsequently 
received from other prominent ADEMA members, have called into 
question ADEMA's ability to deliver for ATT in 2007.  Led by 
Cisse and URD president and former prime minister Younoussi 
Toure, the URD nonetheless decided to uphold its end of the 
bargain.  After creating the ADP on December 8, member 
parties selected Younoussi Toure as the ADP president and 
spokesperson. 
 
4.(U)  In an apparent response to the fractures within ADEMA, 
both Cisse and Toure urged URD delegates to follow the 
official party line.  "My main concern was and still 
remains," Cisse told his followers, "the cohesiveness and 
unity of the party."   According to the URD's communication 
director, Modibo Camara, the decision also sent a message to 
Rally for Mali (RPM) leader and National Assembly president 
Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK).  "We had several bitter 
experiences with that party," said Camara in reference to 
past URD-RPM alignments.  Camara said IBK's endorsement of 
ATT over Cisse during the second round of the 2002 
presidential election also figured into the URD's 
calculations for 2007. 
 
5.(C)  Perhaps the single most important factor influencing 
the URD's decision, however, was a call from ATT to UEMOA on 
Cisse's behalf.  ATT recently asked UEMOA to grant Cisse a 
second four year term as president of the UEMOA commission. 
According to one report, Cisse's chances of a second term are 
strong thanks to ATT's backing.  Mali apparently intends to 
formally request a new mandate for Cisse during a Head of 
State summit scheduled for January in Senegal. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.(C)  Soumaila Cisse is one of Mali's political 
heavy-weights, having received more presidential votes in 
2002 than IBK.  Due to his position with the UEMOA, however, 
Cisse has spent most of the time since the 2002 elections at 
the commission's headquarters in Ouagadougou rather than in 
Mali maintaining his political networks and connections. 
Many believe Cisse is ATT's preferred successor for 2012, 
provided ATT prevails in 2007.  Cisse and the URD's decision 
 
BAMAKO 00001433  002 OF 002 
 
 
to join ADEMA and support ATT in an apparent deal for 
ministerial posts (and four more years for Cisse with UEMOA) 
is not without risks, however.  The URD and ADEMA apparently 
already provided ATT with a short-list of potential ministers 
several months ago.  It remains unclear whether ATT intends 
to see this part of his deal with ADEMA and the URD through. 
ATT could conceivably use ADEMA's on-going implosion as a 
pretext for continued inaction in regard to the allotment of 
new ministerial positions.  Disaffected members of the URD 
could also follow Boubey Maiga's example and strike out on 
their own, taking large portions of the party with them. 
McCulley