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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASUNCION 001280 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2026 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCRM PINR PA
SUBJECT: PRIEST'S PRESIDENTIAL PROPOSITION PERTURBS 
PARAGUAY'S POLITICS 
 
Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick. Reasons 1.4(b),(d) 
 
¶1. (C)  SUMMARY:  The Christmas Day official annoucement by 
Fernando Lugo, a Catholic priest, that he will run for 
President of Paraguay in the 2008 elections set off a 
firestorm of debate within -- and without -- the political 
establishment over his eligibility, potential support, and 
prospects.  While he has yet to articulate a well-defined 
political and economic agenda, he has broadly committed 
himself to the fight against corruption and to building a 
just and equitable society.  To maintain his current lead in 
the public opinion polls, however, he will need to: marry 
support from his natural constituency among long 
disenfranchised elements (principally from the left) with the 
established political opposition parties; draw support from 
disaffected Colorado Party members; and, hold up under 
withering fire from the Colorado political machine. 
 
¶2. (C) Consolidating the support of the disparate opposition 
parties will likely pose Lugo his greatest challenge, as each 
has its own pre-candidate(s) with presidential ambitions. 
Colorado Party leaders have already stepped up attacks on 
Lugo's character and credibility, where he does have some 
vulnerabilities.  The Vatican's admonition against 
resignation of his pastoral duties also stirs the domestic 
controversy relating to a constitutional bar against any 
cleric assuming Paraguayan elected office.  The coming year 
promises to be tumultuous as the political establishment 
wrangles with how to deal with -- whether to follow, reject 
or otherwise attempt to absorb -- this newcomer.  END SUMMARY. 
 
LUGO LAUNCHES CANDIDACY ON CHRISTMAS 
==================================== 
¶3. (U)  Monsignor Fernando Armindo Lugo Mendez, S.V.D., 
officially declared his candidacy for the Presidency of 
Paraguay on December 25 in front of his parent's home in 
Encarnacion.  He had long been rumored a potential 2008 
presidential candidate, particularly after he led the 
opposition in a large March demonstration against the 
President's maneuver to win simultaneous appointment as the 
Colorado Party's President.  Prior to his emergence then with 
a more mainstream message condemning corruption, Lugo had 
participated and led a number of countryside peasant 
demonstrations that often produced road blockages and land 
invasions. (NOTE: Lugo was ordained the bishop of San Pedro 
in 1994, a position he resigned in January 2005. San Pedro, 
one of the poorest of Paraguay's agricultural areas, has been 
long neglected by the Colorados and historically a wellspring 
of opposition politicians.  END NOTE.) In announcing his 
political candidacy, Lugo steered away from articulating a 
formal platform and refused to cast his message in 
ideological terms, instead committing himself to building a 
more just and equitable society.  He rejected looking to 
either Bolivia or Venezuela as models for Paraguay, 
suggesting Paraguay needed to chart its own course and 
appealing for the support of diverse, disparate segments of 
Paraguayan society and political structure. 
 
BUILDING A BIG, BIG TENT 
======================== 
¶4.  (U)  Fernando Lugo has served as the symbolic leader of a 
coalition of political parties and other organizations that 
produced the March demonstration and as the uniting force 
behind the opposition's campaign against the President over 
the last nine months.  But Paraguay's elections have 
historically been driven by party politics and allegiances. 
Lugo recognizes this and has worked hard to build up 
credibility and support, particularly from political party 
opposition leaders naturally distrustful of someone outside 
their structures. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Lugo, however, fed some of the suspicions of 
opposition party leaders, particularly those from the 
center-right, when his supporters from the left announced 
December 17 creation of a new movement named "Tekojoja," the 
guarani word for "equality."  This coalition comprised of 
labor unions, peasant groups, and leftist political parties, 
including members of the militant leftist party Free 
Fatherland (Patria Libre) which was tied to the Cecelia Cubas 
kidnapping, presented a petition with 100,000 signatures 
supporting Lugo's candidacy.  Notwithstanding Lugo's efforts 
to moderate his political discourse over the last year, many 
regard this group as representative of his natural leftist 
 
ASUNCION 00001280  002 OF 004 
 
 
tendencies.  Lugo's next-day claim to the DCM that he was 
taken by surprise with the creation of this group and was not 
aware that some of its leaders hailed from Patria Libre come 
off as disingenuous. 
 
¶6.  (U)  Separately, Lugo's brother, Pompeyo Lugo, a 
dissident from the ruling Colorado Party, announced December 
27 creation of yet another movement, Paraguay Posible, made 
up of Colorados, businessmen, and other segments more 
traditionally associated with conservative politics.  Many 
consider the creation of this group as an attempt to appease 
sensitivities spun up over the creation of Tekojoja.  This 
group could serve the medium for seeking out the support of 
Colorado Party members that make up the majority of the 
registered electorate. (NOTE:  The Lugo family has a long and 
respected tradition of Colorado Party activism.  Msgr. Lugo's 
grandfather was a conservative Minister of Treasury in the 
post-war era.  His father was reportedly repeaetdly jailed as 
a Colordado dissident during the Stroessner dictatorship. 
END NOTE.) 
 
 
CAN THE TENT ACCOMODATE OTHER PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS? 
============================================= ======== 
¶7.  (C)  Lugo's principle challenge will lie in keeping all 
of these disparate groups united behind his candidacy.  Given 
his own leftist roots and the lack of another viable 
alternative, his supporters from within the movement Tekojoja 
promise to be the most loyal.  Meanwhile, support from the 
coalition of opposition parties is fragile.  Each of the 
major political parties ) the Liberals, the Free Fatherland 
Party (PPQ), and the National Union of Ethical Citizens Party 
(UNACE) - has its own major figures with presidential 
aspirations.  It is just this opposition disunity (helped 
along by more than a smattering of financial grease) that has 
allowed the Colorados to divide and rule for six 
uninterrupted decades. 
 
o LIBERALS: Senator Carlos Mateo Balmelli and Governor of 
Central Department Federico Franco have both announced their 
own candidacies.  Franco has signaled a readiness to cede to 
Lugo given the broad support he has been able to attract. 
Mateo, however, headstrong and actively campaigning for over 
a year now, will prove very resistant to giving way to this 
newcomer whom he regards as ill-prepared to govern.  Mateo 
could prove a potentially divisive force within the 
opposition should he decide to remain a candidate or even 
just withhold support for Lugo. 
 
o PATRIA QUERIDA (PPQ): leader Pedro Fadul, who ran for 
President in 2003 and still has strong presidential 
ambitions, continues to signal his readiness to cede to Lugo 
as potentially the opposition's only hope for ending 60 years 
of Colorado rule. 
 
o UNACE: Enrique Gonzalez Quintana (EGQ), the current 
President of Congress, holds out hope he will be able to 
spring a political or legal deal that would win the release 
of imprisoned coup leader General Lino Oviedo, so that he 
could run in the 2008 elections.  EGQ conveyed to Pol Chief 
December 21 concerns about Lugo's leftist tendencies.  At the 
same time, he maintained Lugo and Oviedo had been in contact 
and even discussed a potential union on a presidential 
ticket.  (NOTE: Oviedo is only two years into a 10-year 
sentence.  It presently remains difficult envisioning the 
Colorado-controlled Supreme Court allowing for his release. 
A separate appeal of his trial before an extraordinary 
military tribunal (he was retired when tried), however, is 
currently before the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. 
Lugo's legal advisor, Rafael Saguier, told Pol Chief Lugo is 
not interested in Oviedo as a running mate and was looking 
instead at identifying a women to run with him.  Lugo and 
Oviedo have typically been running one and two, respectively, 
in public opinion polls on whether elections were held today. 
 END NOTE.) 
 
¶8.  (C)  While party leaders publicly welcome Lugo's 
candidacy and PPQ and UNACE along with other opposition 
leaders have committed themselves to a united front, the 
coalition has yet to coalesce -- much less embrace a 
mechanism for deciding on a common presidential candidate and 
candidates for Congress and lesser positions.  Three options 
are presently under consideration: 1) each party holds a 
 
ASUNCION 00001280  003 OF 004 
 
 
primary, the winners of which face off against each other; 2) 
all candidates face off against each other in one open 
election; or 3) party leaders agree amongst themselves on a 
single slate of candidates.  Lugo legal advisor Rafael 
Saguier signaled a preference for the latter.  He appreciates 
concerns about Lugo's leftist tendencies.  However, he also 
maintains the opposition parties recognize Lugo represents 
their best chance at throwing out the Colorados.  He posits 
they will eventually agree to back Lugo for President 
provided they run their own party candidates for Congress 
where they will command the majority and serve as a check on 
any misguided tendencies on his part.  For his part, Lugo 
spoke to PolChief and DCM of his concerns about not being 
able to govern were he elected without any Congressional 
supporters to call his own, a la Correa of Ecuador. 
 
COLORADOS FEELING THE HEAT -- AND TURNING IT ON 
============================================= == 
¶9. (C) In one early December poll, Lugo drew the support of 
24 percent of voters compared with 21 percent for President 
Duarte.  Duarte has given himself until March to win the 
support he needs within Congress to pursue an amendment to 
the Constitution to allow him to run for reelection.  Slowly, 
he is coming to the realization that prospects are long for 
that to happen.  Other presidential aspirants within the 
Colorado Party are keen to resolve this issue so they can 
launch their own campaign. 
 
¶10. (C) Vice-President Castiglioni hopes to win his Party's 
endorsement as its candidate in the 2008 elections but he has 
not gained President Duarte's formal backing yet, though they 
have begun a marked increase in their joint public 
appearances.  In an uncharacteristically strident tone, 
Castiglioni launched an attack on Lugo December 27, 
describing the priest's bid for the Presidency as 
unconstitutional and calling attention to his association 
with militant leftists from Patria Libre.  Duarte signaled 
conflicting sentiments about Lugo's candidacy, welcoming it 
on the one hand for the prospect it offers to reinvigorate 
political debate but describing Lugo on the other hand as 
"Lucifer," and a failed cleric with no future in politics. 
Colorado Party king maker Sen. Galaverna described Lugo as a 
liar and crazy.  Lugo can and should expect Colorado attacks 
to sharpen should he continue to poll competitively with the 
Colorados. 
 
LUGO LEAVES THE CHURCH. OR DOES HE? 
=================================== 
¶11. (U)  Paraguay's 1992 Constitution bars "ministers from 
any religion" from running for President.  To overcome that 
restriction, Lugo announced the renunciation of his 
priesthood December 21.  Anticipating this announcement, the 
Vatican's Prefect of the Congregation of Bishops, Giovanni 
Battista Re, wrote an official letter to Lugo December 20, 
which was promptly made public. It advised that as a bishop 
(Lugo's current official title is Bishop Emeritus) he is 
barred against running for political office and warning him 
that if he proceeds he faces sanctions, including the loss of 
his right to practice the sacraments and, in the most extreme 
case, excommunication.  The threat regarding his practicing 
the sacraments as a priest rings rather hollow, as Lugo 
voluntarily gave up this right by virtue of his renunciation. 
 Excommunication, of course, would be another matter and much 
more serious.  However, Church officials have also suggested 
that Lugo cannot renounce his status as a bishop, essentially 
maintaining that, according to Catholic Church doctrine, once 
ordained a bishop by the Church, one is bishop for life. 
Lugo's supporters have suggested his personal renunciation 
meets the constitutional bar against ministers running for 
President.  Detractors, on the other hand, argue otherwise 
leaving open the possibility for a Constitutional challenge. 
 
¶12.  (C)  The Paraguayan Episcopal Conference (CEP), the 
governing body for the Catholic Church hierarchy in Paraguay, 
has assumed a higher profile in recent years, condemning 
corruption and the government's failure to address poverty. 
The CEP has been somewhat more ambiguous to date on its views 
on Lugo and his potential candidacy.  Privately, some of its 
key members, including Archbishop Cuquejo of Asuncion, have 
signaled to us suspicion of Lugo and support for 
Vice-President Luis Castiglioni, a devout Catholic and member 
of Opus Dei.  At the same time, the CEP has issued public 
statements conveying support for Lugo as one of its own. 
 
ASUNCION 00001280  004 OF 004 
 
 
Undoubtedly, left-right tensions exist within the CEP, even 
as it attempts to focus on the non-partisan needs of the 
faithful.  ith the Vatican having taken an unambiguous stance 
opposed to Lugo's candidacy, the CEP is left with little 
choice but to toe the same line.  No doubt, the CEP will seek 
to avoid entering into an extended public debate over this 
issue.  It remains to be seen to what extent the Church's 
position on this issue will impact voting tendencies in this 
overwhelmingly Catholic country. 
 
COMMENT 
======= 
¶13. (C) COMMENT:  Lugo's candidacy injects a significant 
measure of suspense and controversy into traditionally 
sterile campaigns for political office in Paraguay. 
Opponents are quick to cast Lugo as the next Chavez or 
Morales.  Given Paraguay's conservative tradition and Lugo's 
reliance on opposition political party support, though, he 
will seek to pitch a relatively moderate platform.  In the 
end, he could be hardpressed to hold together the disparate 
interests of opposition political parties not accustomed to 
supporting candidates from other parties.  The Colorados have 
their own work cut out for them, identifying a candidate the 
opposition will not single out as a poster child for 
corruption. (By that measure, Lugo would be wise to adopt 
President Duarte's statement that "Lugo is a threat to the 
status quo" as his own rallying cry.)  The Colorado strategy, 
in the meantime, will likely continue to center on drawing 
attention to Lugo's own defects.  In the weeks and months 
ahead both sides will need to declare what they stand for and 
square their past records with their stated objectives ) 
something that could prove a challenge for all involved.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
BIO NOTE 
======== 
¶14. (U) BIO NOTE: Fernando Lugo was born in Paraguay on 30 
May 1949, into a well-known Colorado Party family.  He was 
ordained a priest in the Society of the Divine Word in August 
¶1977.  Septel will report in detail on his past and attempt 
to separate fact from fiction regarding some of the many 
swirling accusations being made against him. 
CASON