VZCZCXRO1763
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1380/01 3451429
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 111429Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3994
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0760
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001380 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT:  HIGH COURT MUST CERTIFY RAVALOMANANA VICTORY 
 
REF:  ANTANANARIVO 1372 AND PREVIOUS 
 
ANTANANARI 00001380  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The unofficial Ministry of Interior vote count 
concluded December 10 with candidate and President Marc Ravalomanana 
winning 54.8 percent.  On cue his nearest challenger, Jean 
Lahiniriko, publicly denounced the legitimacy of the election and 
made numerous claims of fraud.  Police continued to search the homes 
of several opposition politicians suspected of supporting violent 
actions, including those of renegade General Fidy.  The High 
Constitutional Court must certify the official results and hopes to 
do so within a week.  END SUMMARY. 
 
First Round Victory Awaits High Court Approval 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2. (U) Exactly one week after election day, the Ministry of Interior 
completed December 10 its unofficial compilation of results from the 
presidential election (reftels).  With all 17,581 polling stations 
reporting, representing 7.36 million registered voters and 4.43 
million valid votes cast, the results showed a 61.45 percent 
turnout.  President Ravalomanana won 2.43 million votes for 54.8 
percent based on this unofficial tally, with Jean Lahiniriko second 
at 11.68 percent, Roland Ratsiraka third at 10.09 percent, and 
Herizo Razafimhaleo fourth at 9.05 percent.  None of the other 10 
candidates earned even five percent.  The relative speed with which 
the unofficial vote count was completed -- a process that in the 
past has taken six weeks -- was thanks to a mass communication 
effort by the Interior Ministry.  GOM officials hope the assistance 
of South African helicopters and airplanes in transporting 
affidavits and ballots from remote regions to vote counting centers 
and on to the High Constitutional Court (HCC) will speed the 
official result announcement as well. 
 
Waiting For The Official Vote Count 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) All attention now turns to the HCC which must compile and 
certify the results from 116 regional districts where polling 
station results were collected last week.  As of midday December 11, 
the HCC had 100 files of the 116 total.  HCC President Jean Michel 
Rajaonarivony has been reluctant to say publicly when he will make a 
final announcement, but shared with the Ambassador December 11 that 
it is possible they may have a final tally as early as December 15, 
depending on the number of material errors that need to be 
reconciled in each district's file.  Candidate delegates, media, and 
accredited observers are all allowed to visit the HCC to monitor the 
count. 
 
Lahiniriko Cries Foul 
--------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Candidate Jean Lahiniriko predictably filed two 
depositions at the HCC generally contesting the legitimacy of the 
elections and calling on all election observers to pool their 
results for an alternate vote count.  HCC President Rajaonarivony 
emphasized he would take all candidates' complaints seriously, but 
said there was little he could do in the absence of any concrete 
evidence.  To date, according to Rajaonarivony, Lahiniriko has 
failed to make any specific or detailed claims of fraud that can be 
narrowed down to particular polling stations, officials, or other 
individuals.  The HCC addresses claims, he concluded, but does not 
have the resources to conduct a thorough investigation and wholesale 
audit of the entire election process if the candidate does not do 
some of the initial legwork. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In public statements Lahiniriko was equally vague in his 
allegations but also quite inflammatory, calling for the "forces 
vives" (intellectual elites) of Madagascar to "take over and 
organize new elections in order to avoid bloodshed." 
 
House Searches 
-------------- 
 
¶6. (U)  On December 8, the national radio broadcast a government 
statement notifying the public the police will conduct nationwide 
house searches following recent arrest warrants and asking people to 
remain calm.  With this "general search warrant," security forces 
proceeded immediately to search the homes of a number of people 
suspected of having connections to renegade coup-plotter General 
Fidy and his ally the presidential candidate Pety Rakotoniaina. 
Most notably, investigators reportedly found and confiscated 15 
grenades, some detonators, and "important documents" from the home 
of elderly former President Albert Zafy.  Police also raided the 
 
ANTANANARI 00001380  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
home of Jacques Raharinirina, Director of Communications for 
candidate/fugitive Pety Rakotoniaina, reportedly seizing documents 
relating to their "Tambatra" political movement as well as papers 
about "Chinese and Pakistani investment activities." 
 
COMMENT: 
--------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Whether or not the HCC announces results similar to the 
Interior Ministry, several opposition members will continue to make 
vague allegations of widespread fraud.  If Ravalomanana's total 
drops below 50 percent, Lahiniriko would face him in a run-off -- 
which explains the latter's somewhat desperate allegations.  If the 
HCC results bring Ravalomanana's total much below 54.8 percent, the 
allegations of fraud -- for which we have seen no evidence -- may 
gain traction with the Malagasy public.  END COMMENT. 
 
MCGEE