VZCZCXRO0087
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1372/01 3421118
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 081118Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3982
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0758
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001372 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT:  UNOFFICIAL RESULTS ALL BUT SEAL FIRST ROUND WIN 
 
REF:  ANTANANARIVO 1369 AND PREVIOUS 
 
ANTANANARI 00001372  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  With 82 percent of polling stations unofficially 
reporting results to the Ministry of Interior, President-candidate 
Ravalomanana is very likely to have the absolute majority of votes 
needed to prevail in the first round.  It will be several days 
before the High Constitutional Court (HCC) completes its official 
tabulation and certifies a result.  Observer teams continued to 
proclaim the election well-run but handicapped by systemic 
shortcomings.  There was a stir early December 8 when the Interior 
Ministry closed its unofficial tabulation center for "technical 
difficulties" due to power outages.  Lahiniriko's party will file a 
complaint for fraud, Pety is hunted by police for numerous alleged 
offenses, and former President Zafy emerged from slumber.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
Ravalomanana Likely To Win In Round One 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  With 82 percent of polling stations unofficially 
reporting to the Interior Ministry -- representing 6.6 million 
registered voters, four million of whom voted --  Ravalomanana has 
received 2.24 million votes for 56.4 percent of valid votes cast. 
With 400,000 - 700,000 ballots remaining unreported, the President 
is almost mathematically assured first round victory, assuming the 
HCC official tabulation matches unofficial figures.  The HCC 
counting operation has a long way to go before certifying the 
election, as trucks and helicopters deliver polling station 
affidavits and ballots. 
 
CNOE Emphasizes Calm 
-------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U)  In preliminary results December 8, the Committee for 
National Election Observers (CNOE) said the vote was calm and the 
pre-electoral campaign was reasonably fair.  CNOE Secretary General 
Bruno Rakotoarison noted the period was non-violent, but pointed out 
great disparities in candidates' resources.  CNOE thus called for 
campaign finance regulations to level the political playing field. 
 
¶4.  (U) Calling on the observations of 2,124 CNOE monitors -- funded 
by the USG and trained by the National Democratic Institute -- 
Rakotoarison commended the process on several points:  observers had 
free access; voters were free of interference; voting station 
officials were competent.  Rakotoarison, like other observer teams, 
criticized the errors in electoral lists.  CNOE also made priority 
recommendations for electoral reform:  a cap on voters per polling 
station of 800; a single ballot; and an overhaul of the electoral 
list system. 
 
African International Observers 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU)  African Union (AU) and Southern African Development 
Community (SADC) Secretariat statements were predictably soft, 
generally praising the election while vaguely noting irregularities. 
 The more independent SADC Parliamentary Forum made a strong 
statement December 7, emphasizing several aspects of Madagascar's 
election which did not meet minimum SADC standards. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  In a December 8 meeting with the Ambassador, Team Leader 
and SADC-PF Vice-Chairperson Duke Lefhoko (of Botswana) said the 
pre-election period had been almost "too calm" compared to the 
normal excitement he had witnessed in eight previous observer 
missions.  He concurred that the polling had been generally free and 
fair, while also citing certain procedural concerns, notably the 
government's dominant role in running the election. 
 
Interior Ministry Computers Crash? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  The Interior Ministry's public (unofficial) tabulation 
center temporarily closed with "technical difficulties" due to power 
outages at 0730 December 8 and is still not open.  The Ministry 
caused much confusion as international journalists scrambled to read 
notices posted outside the room, speculating what might "really" be 
going on (Note:  While probably nothing, the closure is reminiscent 
of former President Ratsiraka's move in 2001 to stop posting results 
when things were going bad for him.  End Note).  The story will 
likely blow over once the center reopens and an explanation is 
offered, but in the meantime journalists are looking for an 
interesting spin on an otherwise boring election story. 
 
 
ANTANANARI 00001372  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Lahiniriko Claims Fraud 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Candidate Jean Lahiniriko, hovering at ten percent of the 
vote in third place, just behind Ratsiraka, announced his intention 
to deposit a formal complaint of fraud at the HCC.  Challenging the 
declarations of international observers, Lahiniriko's supporters 
allege that electoral list and voter card problems were not mere 
"random mistakes."  They will try to prove Ravalomanana inflated 
lists to increase his vote count, while omitting names of opposition 
supporters. 
 
Pety On the Lam 
--------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Several media outlets continue to pay attention to the 
arrest warrant for candidate and mayor of Fianarantsoa Pety 
Rakotoniaina; newspapers speculate he is suspected of obstruction of 
the vote, theft (in 2004), and even conspiracy to attempt murder. 
Pety, known to be close to renegade coup-plotting General Fidy, has 
now - like the General - gone into hiding to avoid arrest. 
 
Zafy Albert Mouthpiece Spouts Off at U.S. 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Having been graciously silent and harmless during the 
electoral campaign, impeached former President Zafy Albert placed an 
acidic editorial in La Tribune December 8.  Zafy's supporter, 
Emmanuel Rakotovahiny, made the argument that the United States was 
to blame for the election taking place when it never should have. 
For the umpteenth time Zafy called for a transition government for 
reconciliation, while accusing the 13 opposition candidates of 
abandoning Madagascar by participating in a "sham" election. 
 
COMMENT:  IT LOOKS LIKE RAVALOMANANA HAS WON 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU)  It is unlikely, although still possible, that the HCC 
official tabulation will vary from current estimates to change the 
expected result: a first round victory for Marc Ravalomanana. 
Opposition reactions are warming up on Day 5 of the count, and 
should accelerate in the coming week.  As long as Ravalomanana's 
tally remains well above the 50 percent mark, these complaints are 
unlikely to gain much traction; if the President's first round 
margin narrows considerably the opposition may unite in crying foul 
and demanding a second round poll.  So far the big success of the 
election appears to be rigorous domestic and international 
observation which generally lauds implementation while criticizing 
the electoral system.  The loudest and most credible complaint 
concerns the voter lists; leaving egg on the European Union's face 
for their two million euro investment.  Non-Europeans comment the 
computerization started too late, and focused too much on technology 
instead of actual quality of the lists for the election.  To be 
fair, an electoral law that did not close the lists until three days 
before the election left no margin for error.  END COMMENT. 
 
MCGEE