VZCZCXRO3645
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1348 3351051
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 011051Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3949
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0750
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001348 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR CALM ON THE EVE OF ELECTION WEEKEND 
 
REF: ANTANANARIVO 1334 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (U) In early afternoon the last day of the campaign, 
except for 30,000 supporters who filled the stadium in 
Antananarivo to see President/candidate Marc Ravalomanana, 
the rest of Madagascar appears to be calm and quiet. 
Campaign rallies in different cities are expected to continue 
into tonight, but as of 0700 local time December 2, the 
campaign period is officially closed and public political 
action forbidden. 
 
¶2. (U) Potentially significant to voter turn-out, a tropical 
storm "Anita" has formed off the northwest coast of 
Madagascar and is expected to hit the west coast near 
Morondava in the coming two-three days.  While now weakening, 
the storm will still deliver heavy rains and wind, thus 
probably dampening voter participation in affected areas. 
 
Observers Deploy 
- - - - - - - - 
 
¶3. (U) Over 150 international observers deployed to the field 
December 1 to be in place for the Sunday, December 3 
election:  over 70 U.S. Mission American and Malagasy staff; 
52 Europeans; 24 delegates of the SADC Parliamentarian Forum; 
10 from La Francophonie; and others.  In addition, 2,000 
Malagasy observers trained by the National Democratic 
Institute (NDI) with USG financing will watch the poll. 
 
Last Words 
- - - - - 
 
¶4. (U) Among opposition candidates, Herizo appears to have 
emerged as the most serious contender with national reach. 
Herizo has also stated his supporters will use cell phone 
Short Message Service (SMS) technology to quickly communicate 
results to his party headquarters.  A few candidates are 
focusing their efforts near home.  Whether the 13 can muster 
over 50 percent combined and force a run-off is an open 
question.  The first clue to the answer will be reports from 
the field December 3 about how many candidates printed and 
distributed their ballots for voters. 
 
¶5. (SBU) One potential opposition accusation appears to have 
been avoided:  unofficial, unreleased results of a USG-funded 
media monitoring program indicate that state radio and media 
did offer equal free time to all candidates as required by 
law.  Private media, not bound by campaign rules, varied from 
biased (the President's MBS network) to surprisingly balanced 
(Don Bosco Radio and TV Plus).  Most striking was that 
campaign-related media was limited to free or paid air time - 
news coverage of the campaign was almost non-existent.  An 
early explanation suggests station managers avoided news 
reports on the campaign altogether for fear of retribution - 
not just from the President or the GOM, but from any of the 
14 candidates.  If they did a news piece on one candidate, 
for example, the other 13 might all complain. 
 
¶6. (U) Post will be monitoring Sunday's polls and 
communicating regularly with Mission observers from the 
Embassy.  Point of contact in case of queries from the 
Department is DCM George N. Sibley at  261-33-442-2404 
(direct) or IVG 590-2404, email SibleyGN@state.gov. 
 
 
McGEE