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P 011359Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7946
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0169
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003099 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION BEGINNING TO COALESCE? 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for reasons 1.4 (b) 
 and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) John Nwodo Jr., an Enugu based lawyer and political 
activist and former Minister of Information, told Poloff that 
he sees the need for a unified opposition to the bad 
governance Nigeria has suffered under the PDP.  Nwodo said 
that there was a meeting recently in Enugu of "like-minded 
people from different parties" including General Muhammadu 
Buhari, former Biafran leader General Chukwuemeka Ojukwu and 
Lagos Governor Bola Tinubu to discuss formation of a 
coalition to contest the 2007 presidency.  Nwodo believes 
that these opposition figures from different parties and 
different regions will be able to lay personal ambitions 
aside to pursue the common goal of defeating the PDP in 2007. 
 He speculated that the coalition might eventually be 
expanded to include Sokoto Governor Bafarawa and possibly 
Senate President Ken Nnamani, both of whom he is in close 
contact with.  The main problem this nascent coalition faces 
is deciding on which party's ticket the opposition candidate 
will run. 
 
¶2. (C) Nwodo posited that Vice President Atiku Abubakar and 
General Ibrahim Babangida only remain in the PDP in hopes of 
playing a spoiler role.  He said that IBB and Atiku know they 
cannot gain the PDP nomination.  They plan to remain in the 
PDP through the nomination process in order to point out the 
PDP national convention's problems loudly and publicly, then 
to leave the PDP with great fanfare, taking many followers 
with them and splintering the party. 
 
¶3. (C) On the issue of zoning, Nwodo said that the North has 
had power for "too long" and that the "South-South probably 
has the best argument" for its turn at the presidency. 
However, Nwodo believes that no good candidates have emerged 
from the South-South and that the southerners will probably 
accept a northern candidate. 
 
¶4. (C) Nwodo worried that the Nigerian people are frustrated 
by the current political environment and said that some are 
"clamoring for a coup."  He speculated that if the government 
postpones the April elections, the military might step in. 
Once the civilian government has breached the constitution, 
Nwodo explained, what would stop the military from stepping 
in under the mantra of "wiping the slate clean" of corrupt 
politicians?  He predicted that the Nigerian people might 
accept a coup similar to the one in Thailand earlier this 
year. 
 
¶5.  (C)  COMMENT:  Nwodo, the well-spoken representative of a 
prominent Igbo political family, has kept his ties to all of 
the current actors in Nigeria's political drama, shuttling 
frequently among Abuja, Lagos, Minna, Sokoto and Enugu. 
While his remarks reflect an aspect of his personal wishes, 
his comments about the mood of the nation and the potential 
of an opposition coalition reflect more than wishful thinking. 
 
FUREY