VZCZCXRO2169
OO RUEHMJ RUEHPB
DE RUEHWL #0951/01 3340627
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 300627Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3556
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 4636
RUEHMJ/AMEMBASSY MAJURO IMMEDIATE 0103
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY IMMEDIATE 0624
RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE 0544
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000951 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO, EUR/RPM, AND EAP/ANP 
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD JESSICA POWERS 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2016 
TAGS: ASEC PREL PGOV FJ NZ
SUBJECT: NZ OFFICIALS SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC ON FIJI 
 
REF: WELLINGTON 938 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Katherine B. Hadda, 
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  GNZ officials remain positive about 
yesterday's talks in Wellington between Fiji PM Qarase and 
Commodore Frank Bainimarama, and say the PM now has a chance 
to win hearts and minds to his cause.  But they say they 
believe a coup is more likely than a resolution, and think 
RFMF may act to force out the government as early as within 
the week.  Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) 
officials say that they believe widespread violence would be 
unlikely, but that the RFMF would instead force resignations 
of key government officials and that the Fijian police are 
unlikely to stop this.  MFAT says that they would consider 
Qarase's resignation to be a coup even if he claims to go 
willingly, as he clearly would have been intimidated and 
coerced to make that decision.   End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) On November 30, Deputy Foreign Secretary Alan 
Williams briefed the diplomatic corps today about the 
previous day's meeting between Fiji PM Qarase and Commodore 
Frank Bainimarama in Wellington.  Williams' summary tracked 
largely with what he told the DCM (reftel) but he added a bit 
more detail.  He revealed that Governor General Anand 
Satyanand, who is of Fijian descent, opened the meeting by 
welcoming the officials in Fijian and wishing them the best 
for the talks.  Satyanand then withdrew, leaving the 
participants: Qarase, Bainimarama, NZ Foreign Minister 
Winston Peters, and Williams. 
 
¶3.  (C) In addition to the Qoli Qoli legislation discussed 
reftel, Williams said the participants went over in detail 
all of the nine RFMF demands, including: 
 
-- the status of the Fiji police investigations into 
Bainimarama and other senior Fiji military officials (whether 
to suspend them as the military has demanded or go through 
due process as is the government's position); 
 
-- native Fijian Trust boards; 
 
-- how to improve the quality of governance; 
 
-- how to educate the public that the events of 2000 were 
illegal. 
 
Williams praised Minister Peters' mediation skills and said 
that Bainimarama and Qarase had agreed on follow-up steps for 
all nine agenda items. GNZ offered to provide assistance as 
needed, including providing international mediation resources 
if helpful.  Bainimarama had then left to pick up his wife 
and say good-bye to his grandchildren before departing New 
Zealand on a 6 pm commercial flight.  Meanwhile, an RNZAF 757 
transported PM Qarase back to Nadi, as the GNZ wanted to 
ensure he arrived back in Fiji at least two hours before 
Bainimarama's return. 
 
¶4.  (C) Williams said he had been on the phone with Fiji 
several times since the meeting, and believed that Qarase may 
soon issue more statements about the meeting and follow-up. 
Bainimarama has also been talking with his officers, MFAT 
says, so it may be possible to know as early as December 1 
whether progress is being made.  Williams added that calls 
from the EU and UNSG to Bainimarama and Qarase have been 
helpful.  Expanding along the lines of his call with the DCM 
yesterday, Williams said that this was PM Qarase's chance to 
win Fijian hearts and minds. 
 
¶5.  (C) But while the GNZ continues to hope for the best, 
Williams said he would not be surprised if a coup 
nevertheless took place, and he admitted he thought this was 
more likely than a change of heart by Bainimarama.  The GNZ 
remains unclear as to Bainimarama's motivation: is it to work 
through and get agreement on the nine demands, or use them to 
provide a pretext to remove the government?  For this reason, 
Williams said GNZ officials are taking a somber view, and 
would not be surprised if the RFMF downplayed the Wellington 
meeting to  their staff and the public and moved within the 
 
WELLINGTON 00000951  002 OF 002 
 
 
week to force the government out. If that happens, MFAT 
believes there is unlikely to be widespread violence and that 
forced resignations would be the likely RFMF approach.  It is 
unlikely the police would take strong action in GNZ's view, 
especially as Police Chief Hughes has now left the country. 
Williams described Hughes as a very positive, expert 
commissioner who has greatly raised the professional 
standards of his force but is an expat in a country with 
flawed politics. 
 
¶6.  (C) After Williams left to prepare for the December 1 PIF 
Foreign Ministers meeting in Sydney, MFAT Pacific Islands 
Division Director Heather Riddell took questions from the 
diplomats.  She confirmed that the GNZ had told Bainimarama 
that neither Australia nor New Zealand intended to send 
troops to Fiji.  She also confirmed that MFAT had authorized 
departure from Fiji for High Commission dependents, who had 
already been taken outside of Suva for security reasons.  All 
High Commission staff is back in Suva.  MFAT has not changed 
its travel advisory since November 22, but continues to 
review it.  As they consider a coup is unlikely to be 
violent, the GNZ does not expect to have to arrange a 
widespread evacuation for NZ nationals and others but they 
are keeping this option open. 
 
¶7.  (C) Riddell also emphasized that if Qarase resigns, GNZ 
will consider a coup to have taken place and will respond 
accordingly.  This would be true even if the PM said he was 
leaving office for the good of the country, as clearly he 
would not be doing this without having been coerced and 
intimidated. 
McCormick