VZCZCXRO4600
OO RUEHPB
DE RUEHWL #0912 3250304
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 210304Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3508
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 4613
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY IMMEDIATE 0613
RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE 0533
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000912 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO, EUR/RPM, AND EAP/ANP 
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD JESSICA POWERS 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2016 
TAGS: ASEC PREL PGOV NZ FJ
SUBJECT: GNZ CLOSELY MONITORING FIJI, MAY APPROACH 
BAINIMARAMA 
 
REF: A. MCGANN/WELLINGTON 11/20 E-MAILS (NOTAL) 
     ¶B. IIR 6 927 0027 07 (NOTAL) 
     ¶C. WELLINGTON 910 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William McCormick, 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  GNZ is aware that Commodore Bainimarama 
told the U.S. DATT in Suva he will mount a coup in early 
December if GOF does not meet all his demands.  NZ ministries 
are to review a list of possible GNZ responses if a coup 
takes place.  They will also likely approach Bainimarama 
during his ongoing private visit to New Zealand.  GNZ 
officials would appreciate being kept advised about possible 
USG responses to Bainimarama's threats and actions.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) On November 21, Pol-Econ Couns discussed 
Bainimarama's threatened coup with Peter Heenan, Acting 
Deputy Director of the Pacific Division in the Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) and Sonja Weinberg, Policy 
Officer in the Division.  Both Kiwis had received a read-out 
from the NZ Mission in Suva about the US DATT's discussions 
with Bainimarama and the Commodore's claims that he would 
instigate a coup on December 4 if his demands to the Fijian 
Government were not met (Ref B). 
 
¶3.  (C) MFAT is taking Bainimarama's threats very seriously, 
Heenan said, noting that the Commodore was due to arrive in 
Wellington today to attend his granddaughter's first 
communion.  (According to Heenan, PM Clark herself had 
approved the visit, having been asked by NZ officials to 
review the case due to the sensitivities involved.)  MFAT has 
asked NZ's High Commissioner in Suva for his views on whether 
GNZ officials should contact Bainimarama while he is here, 
and what they should say.  Heenan says he fully anticipates 
the High Commissioner will endorse the approach.  MFAT is 
also considering asking the High Commissioner to contact 
Bainimarama's deputies while the Commodore is in New Zealand. 
 
¶4.  (C) NZ officials met last week to discuss possible GNZ 
responses to a coup or other change of Government in Fiji. 
The most serious measures would include the withdrawal of 
military assistance, termination of aid, and a withdrawal of 
NZ personnel.  Ministries are currently considering the costs 
and benefits of all the various possible GNZ actions, given 
Fiji's importance for regional disaster relief, Pacific 
Island Forum activities, etc. 
 
¶5.  (C) Ministries will probably meet tonight or tomorrow to 
review the situation, Heenan said.  He added that MFAT would 
appreciate being advised on any planned USG response to a 
coup and any other actions taken.  (FYI: We have since told 
Heenan that Admiral Fallon and Ambassadors Dinger and 
McCormick will likely contact the Commodore in the very near 
future to tell him not to proceed with his plans.  End FYI.) 
McCormick