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FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7556
INFO RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN PRIORITY 6626
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002526 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
FOR CONGRESSMAN LANTOS FROM AMBASSADOR ARNALL 
COPENHAGEN PLEASE PASS TO LANTOS PARTY 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO LANTOS 
STATE FOR H, EUR, EUR/UBI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON KISL NL
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CONGRESSMAN LANTOS' DECEMBER 3-4 
VISIT TO THE NETHERLANDS 
 
REF: THE HAGUE 2498 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Congressman Lantos: 
 
¶1. (SBU) My Embassy and I warmly welcome you back to the 
Netherlands. Since your last visit here, the political 
landscape has changed dramatically.  The November 22 national 
elections have left the country divided, with no party or 
group of parties having a clear majority.  In the short run, 
we do not expect any major changes in Dutch policies relevant 
to the U.S. -- such as the Dutch deployment to Afghanistan -- 
but Dutch voters' dissatisfaction with the status quo could 
have troubling implications for the long term relationship. 
Your visit here provides and excellent opportunity to build 
relationships with Dutch officials and parliamentary leaders, 
and to help refocus our relationship on our core shared 
values. In addition, your Dutch interlocutors will be very 
interested in hearing your views regarding U.S. positions on 
NATO, Europe, Iran, Afghanistan, and other issues in light of 
the recent U.S. elections. 
 
NEW POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Last June, the fragile coalition government of Jan 
Peter Balkenende collapsed over the mishandling of the 
citizenship status of Ayaan Hirsi Ali -- a former member of 
Parliament and outspoken critic of Islam who now lives in the 
U.S. -- forcing early elections on November 22. Although 
Balkenende's Christian Democratic Alliance (CDA) emerged as 
the putative "winner" of these elections, the 41 seats they 
control in the 150-seat Dutch Parliament are far too few to 
command a majority, and there are no obvious partners with 
which to form a new coalition government.  Observers here 
believe the difficult negotiations necessary to pull together 
a coalition government could take weeks or months -- if they 
succeed at all.  In the meantime, Balkenende will continue to 
head a caretaker minority government until a new coalition 
emerges or new elections are held. 
 
WINNERS AND LOSERS: 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU)  The biggest electoral losers were the Center-Left 
Labor Party (PvdA) headed by Wouter Bos, and the conservative 
Liberal Party (VVD) headed by Mark Rutte.  Both had been 
perceived as potential partners in a future Balkenende-led 
cabinet, but with 33 and 21 seats, respectively, neither now 
has enough support to reach the necessary 76 seats.  The 
surprising success of fringe parties on the right and left, 
meanwhile, are pushing both parties away from the center, 
further complicating the prospects of the sort of centrist 
government coalition favored by Balkenende.  On the left, the 
formerly Maoist Socialist Party grew from 9 to 25 seats 
overnight and now poses a serious threat to the PvdA for 
leadership of the Dutch left.  On the right, the new Party of 
Freedom (PVV) successfully exploited deep-seated 
anti-immigrant and anti-EU emotions to capture a surprising 9 
seats. 
 
DIVIDED ELECTORATE: 
------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) The election results reveal a deeply divided Dutch 
electorate that is becoming even more so.  The voters' swing 
to the fringes reflects the same broad dissatisfaction with 
the traditional political establishment that shot down the EU 
Constitutional Treaty in the Dutch referendum in 2005. This 
frustration is particularly striking at a time when the Dutch 
economy is performing better than it has in decades, 
consistently outperforming eurozone averages: GDP is expected 
to grow by 2.5 to 3 percent this year, and unemployment has 
fallen to 5.5 percent.  Balkenende owes much of his 
relatively strong performance in the elections to these 
positive trends.  Many have credited his government's 
implementation of painful structural reforms for this 
economic turnaround.  This positive economic picture, 
however, was clearly not enough to overcome many voters' 
concerns in other areas. 
 
INTEGRATION DEBATE CONTINUES: 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) In a society still reeling from the 2004 murder of 
Theo van Gogh by a Dutch-Muslim extremist, integrating the 
 
THE HAGUE 00002526  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
nearly 1 million Muslims living in the Netherlands and 
regulating future immigration remain hot-button issues.  Most 
of the major candidates shied away from publicly addressing 
such concerns during the campaign, which no doubt only added 
to the appeal of those candidates, like the PVV's Geert 
Wilders, who spoke out openly for more restrictive 
immigration policies.  The government's eleventh-hour 
announcement of a proposal to ban "burqas" -- which now 
stands virtually no chance of being adopted by the new 
parliament -- was widely viewed as a transparent, ultimately 
unsuccessful, ploy to woo voters away from Wilders and other 
extremists.  As this internal Dutch debate plays out, we can 
play a useful role in facilitating discussion and by 
introducing relevant aspects of our own experience into the 
discussion. 
 
¶6. (SBU) This Mission launched and co-sponsored an intensive 
"Muslim-Muslim" dialogue on November 1-2, which brought over 
120 Dutch and American Muslims, government officials, policy 
experts, civil rights and business leaders together to 
develop strategies for managing diversity and social 
integration.  Despite initial skepticism, Dutch participants 
(and the press) subsequently hailed this initiative as laying 
the groundwork for a broader national discussion on these 
themes.  I hope you will have a chance to meet some of the 
Dutch participants in this Dialogue during the Humanity in 
Action event in Amsterdam. 
 
SHORT TERM CONTINUITY: LONG TERM WORRIES: 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) In the short term, the lack of a new national 
consensus means that the policies of the previous, 
pro-Atlantic government will continue -- at least as long as 
Balkenende remains caretaker Prime Minister.  Any new 
government will also be cautious about overturning or 
reversing commitments made by the previous government; for 
example, we have received multiple assurances, at all levels, 
that the Dutch will honor, to the letter, their commitment to 
deploy 1,400 troops to the southern Afghan province of 
Uruzgan until the summer of 2008. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Over the long run, however, the clear desire for 
change expressed by the Dutch voters cannot be ignored.  The 
traditionally close relationship between the U.S. and the 
Netherlands is one obvious target of frustration (as are 
NATO, the EU, and the Dutch political establishment), and 
recent high-profile events -- Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, "CIA 
Flights," etc. -- have not made our jobs any easier.  We are 
actively working to develop and maintain solid relationships 
across the political spectrum in an effort to refocus the 
relationship back to our core shared values, history, and 
future potential.  Your visit here -- during which you will 
meet some of our toughest critics as well as old friends -- 
provides an excellent opportunity to move this process 
forward. 
ARNALL