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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000518 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016 
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/27: BAINIMARAMA TENSION WITH THE 
KIWIS; SEARCH AT GOVERNMENT HOUSE; CLEAN-UP KIDNAPPINGS? 
 
REF: A. SUVA 516 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
     ¶B. STATE 190257 
     ¶C. SUVA 509 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C) We are tentatively scheduled to meet with Republic of 
Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama on 
Wednesday.  We intend to join others in a joint demarche on 
RFMF senior officers Tuesday.  Over the weekend, New Zealand 
FM Peters got nowhere with Bainimarama.  The GNZ considered 
arresting him but reportedly decided against, even though the 
Commodore threatened the NZ High Commissioner in Suva and 
others.  A number of Australian and New Zealand citizens are 
heading home for an early summer break.  Others are ducking 
down.  Fiji Police executed a search warrant on President 
Iloilo last week, which infuriated the RFMF.  Bainimarama 
reiterated his demand that Police Commissioner Hughes must 
go.  Reportedly, the RFMF "clean up" campaign includes the 
"kidnap" of Hughes, Qarase, and others.  We comment that, if 
Bainimarama commences a "clean up" effort, it is not obvious 
that the Qarase Government has a plan to counter it, though 
Australia will face pressure to help.  Fiji's streets might 
well be calm initially.  Over time, though, ethnic-Fijian 
factionalism could breed in the RFMF, adding another source 
of instability.  End summary. 
 
U.S. demarche with Bainimarama postponed to Wed 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶2. (C) Acting RFMF Commander Capt. (Navy) Teleni postponed a 
meeting that had been scheduled for 11/27 at which the 
Ambassador was to convey Ref B talking points pressing 
against any coup attempt.  Teleni told the Suva DATT that the 
meeting should be with Commodore Bainimarama and suggested 
Wednesday morning, 11/29.  Teleni said Bainimarama would 
return to Fiji on Tuesday.  In the meantime, the UK High 
Commissioner received instructions to demarche the RFMF at 
below the Commodore level, jointly with the Aussies, Kiwis, 
and U.S., if we are willing.  The UK points parallel what all 
four governments have been saying, so we intend to 
participate in calls on Land Forces Commander Col. Driti and 
3FIR Commander LtCol. Mara on Tuesday, unless otherwise 
advised. 
 
A flurry of activity over the weekend 
------------------------------------- 
¶3. (C) A great deal of activity went on behind the scenes 
during the weekend, both in Suva and Wellington.  Our Kiwi 
colleagues report that late Saturday afternoon, Foreign 
Minister Peters met with Bainimarama and heard basically the 
same message all other interlocutors have received: the 
situation in Fiji is dire; Qarase can continue as PM if he 
capitulates to all RFMF demands; short of that, the RFMF will 
force reform.  After high-level discussions within the NZ 
Government, Peters met again with Bainimarama Monday p.m.  We 
have yet to receive a read-out on the second meeting. 
 
Arrest in New Zealand?  Apparently not 
-------------------------------------- 
¶4. (C) We heard from multiple good (non-Kiwi) sources in Suva 
during the weekend that Bainimarama was about to be arrested 
by the GNZ.  Actually, we are told that Fiji police pushed 
hard for an arrest in New Zealand and even flew two senior 
Fiji police officers to Wellington with evidence. 
Reportedly, in a conversation with PM Clark, PM Qarase also 
pushed for arrest.  However, GNZ lawyers had difficulty with 
a New Zealand arrest based on Fiji issues, especially since, 
reportedly, the Fiji Public Prosecutor (DPP) has yet to bless 
charges.  Still, Bainimarama must have heard the rumors.  He 
reportedly threatened to have the RFMF act against the New 
Zealand High Commissioner in Suva if an arrest took place in 
New Zealand.  That threat of harm to a Kiwi appears to 
violate NZ law; however, we hear, in the end the GNZ has 
decided not to arrest Bainimarama. 
 
The uncertainty of being a Kiwi in Suva 
--------------------------------------- 
¶5. (C) A factor in that decision surely was uncertainty about 
what dangers might follow for Kiwis in Fiji.  A number of 
Australia- and New Zealand-affiliated businesses, on their 
own, sent family members home last weekend to commence summer 
holidays, a week earlier than planned.  The families of New 
Zealand High Commission employees have been consolidated at a 
resort away from Suva.  The NZ High Commissioner and DCM now 
have NZ police protection details and are sleeping away from 
their residences.  The NZ DATT is in Fiji but staying away 
 
SUVA 00000518  002 OF 003 
 
 
from Suva.  Australia and New Zealand have bumped up their 
travel warnings, though both have stopped short of a travel 
ban.  (Note: Embassy Suva's EAC met twice today, 11/27, to 
consider the state of play.  Given no NZ arrest, which might 
inflame passions against foreigners, our current level of 
public announcement remains appropriate.) 
 
Evidence search: President/Bainimarama conversation 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
¶6. (C) The Fiji Police obtained a court warrant for a 
document search at the Government House home of President 
Iloilo and reportedly served it last Thursday evening. 
Presumably the intent was to find evidence of the 
conversation between Bainimarama and Iloilo on 11/20, during 
which, according to Bainimarama, the President gave a "green 
light" to go ahead with the "clean up" against Qarase.  As 
reported Ref C, Government sources denied any such signal was 
given.  (Note: we proposed to Vice President Madraiwiwi 
during the weekend that, if there ever was a time for a 
Presidential public statement, now is that time: to clarify 
what was said, presumably to deny issuing any "green light," 
and to reaffirm "rule of law" themes.  Madraiwiwi 
acknowledged the point.  An hour or so later when another 
diplomat raised the same issue with the VP, the response was 
reportedly very passive: that Government House is not central 
to the current crisis and expects to stay on the sidelines. 
End note.) 
 
Bainimarama reiterates: Police Commissioner must go 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
¶7. (C) Bainimarama told the media from Wellington that the 
police visit to Government House was a "raid" which all 
Fijians should resent.  (Fiji media have been describing the 
event as a "raid" ever since, despite efforts by police 
spokesmen and Home Affairs Minister Vosanibola to portray it 
as the orderly serving of a court-issued search warrant.) 
Bainimarama called on Police Commissioner Hughes to "pack his 
bags and leave Fiji or we will pack them for him." 
 
Bainimarama's action plan - kidnapping pressure 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶8. (C) Hughes reportedly has received indications that the 
Bainimarama action plan includes the following: first, kidnap 
Hughes and insist that Qarase capitulate on all the RFMF 
demands; if that does not succeed, also kidnap Home Affairs 
Minister Vosanibola, with the same demands; and work up to 
kidnapping the PM himself if necessary.  Another version has 
the kidnappings, but with all the victims, including the PM, 
put on a patrol boat and shipped "home."  For Qarase that 
would be a distant island in the Lau Group.  Hughes 
reportedly plans to board a well-provisioned Fiji Police boat 
late today and direct his force's operations from at sea for 
the immediate future. 
 
Reservists march back into camp for "clean up" 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶9. (U) The RFMF called in its "territorial" (reserve) forces 
over the weekend, with the published explanations being to 
provide additional protection to President Iloilo and his 
residence and to assist the RFMF in its "clean up" campaign 
against the Qarase Government.  When the territorials were 
called up a few weeks ago, the RFMF spokesman billed it as 
merely an "annual" exercise, and reportedly about 1000 
reservists participated. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶10. (C) The GNZ has had a tough call over whether to arrest 
Bainimarama.  His threats against one or more NZ diplomats 
should not be condoned.  Being passive with bullies only 
encourages them.  An arrest abroad might be the only way to 
enforce a criminal charge and remove the Bainimarama thorn. 
On the other hand, an arrest in NZ might inflame the RFMF 
leadership to an immediate coup and/or action against Kiwi 
diplomats.  It could also ignite Fijian-nationalist 
sentiments against outside influence, causing some who have 
opposed Bainimarama to unite behind his "clean up" effort. 
 
¶11. (C) Presuming that Bainimarama now does return to Fiji 
tomorrow, 11/28, it is not obvious that the Qarase Government 
has a short-term plan to counter a "clean up" campaign.  From 
VP Madraiwiwi's private comments last weekend, it sounds as 
if Government House has decided to duck, a breathtaking 
abdication of responsibility.  Any commencement of legal 
action here in Fiji requires Public Prosecutor action, yet to 
be seen.  To be credible, it also requires a means to enforce 
police, prosecutorial, and judicial will, as yet not obvious. 
 If the RFMF does kidnap Commissioner Hughes, an Aussie, 
 
SUVA 00000518  003 OF 003 
 
 
Canberra is likely to come under public pressure to "do 
something."  We do not know if Australia has contingency 
plans in place for that, or if any such plans might include a 
request for U.S. assistance. 
 
¶12. (C) If Bainimarama does commence the "clean up" campaign, 
it is possible, perhaps even likely, that the streets of Suva 
will stay calm, at least for the short term.  Everyone knows 
who has the firearms.  Over time, though, anti-Bainimarama, 
pro-Qarase factions within the ethnic-Fijian community would 
aim to eat away at RFMF unity.  A fractured military could 
bring still more destabilization to Fiji. 
DINGER