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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
06SUVA516	2006-11-23 20:21	2011-08-30 01:44	CONFIDENTIAL	Embassy Suva

VZCZCXRO7400
OO RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0516/01 3272021
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 232021Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3474
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 1391
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY PRIORITY 0984
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 1172
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000516 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2016 
TAGS: PREL MARR ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE FRI. 11/24: PM OFFERS OLIVE BRANCH; 
POLICE WIDEN RFMF INVESTIGATIONS; BUDGET PASSES; 
MULTI-PARTY CABINET DISCUSSIONS CONTINUE 
 
REF: A. STATE 190257 
     ¶B. SUVA 512 (AND PREVIOUS) 
     ¶C. USDAO SUVA 201455Z NOV 06 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander 
Bainimarama has declined to receive a U.S. message (Ref A) 
during his holiday in New Zealand.  We are attempting to 
schedule delivery to RFMF senior officers in Suva.  We did 
deliver on 11/22 Ref. A's short message for PM Qarase.  The 
UK DATT in Wellington had a conversation with Bainimarama 
which confirmed the Commodore's coup intent.  Fiji Police 
Commissioner Hughes has told the media that seven 
investigations are under way against senior RFMF leaders, and 
the scope is widening to include behind-the-scenes inciters. 
In Parliament, PM Qarase reiterated he is willing to discuss 
issues with the Army.  Fiji's 2007 budget passed easily, 
though four Fiji Labor Party Ministers joined their party in 
voting against.  Five FLP Ministers were absent.  PM Qarase 
and FLP leader Chaudhry are discussing a way out of the 
multi-party Cabinet quandary.  End summary. 
 
Tracking the elusive Commodore 
------------------------------ 
¶2. (C) Embassies Wellington and Suva have been involved in 
attempting to deliver Ref A talking points to RFMF Commander 
Bainimarama.  After Embassy Wellington was rebuffed by 
Bainimarama's staff, the Suva DATT contacted the Commodore on 
11/23.  Bainimarama made clear he has no interest in a 
conversation with the U.S. in New Zealand, preferring to have 
any conversation on his return to Fiji o/a Nov. 29.  (A rumor 
is floating that he might return as early as Nov. 27.)  Given 
the delay, we intend to provide the essence of the talking 
points to RFMF senior leadership currently in Fiji as soon as 
that can be arranged.  As of COB 11/24, RFMF leaders in Suva 
were unavailable.  Acting Commander Teleni was reportedly 
meeting all day with Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) mediators, 
theoretically a positive signal.  However... 
 
Bainimarama to UK DATT: coup is intent 
-------------------------------------- 
¶3. (C) We hear from our British colleagues that Bainimarama's 
conversation with the UK DATT in Wellington on 11/23 
paralleled Ref C conversation with our DATT on 11/20.  The 
Commodore made clear that he intends to remove the Qarase 
Government, without bloodshed if possible.  He believes Fiji 
domestic issues require that drastic action, and, while he 
acknowledges strong concerns from the U.S., Australia, New 
Zealand, and the UK, he is not swayed by them. 
 
Police Commissioner says investigations are widening 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
¶4. (C) In the face of RFMF calls for his removal, Police 
Commissioner Hughes informed the media on 11/23 that seven 
separate police investigations are under way against 
Bainimarama and his senior officers.  Hughes added that 
officers and their troops cannot commit an unlawful act and 
later argue they were just following orders.  "That doesn't 
wash."  Hughes also stated that "more than ten" politicians, 
civil servants, and former military officers are under 
investigation for allegedly inciting Bainimarama to act 
against the Government.  Hughes told us on 11/23 his own 
assessment is that the RFMF's latest threats are possibly 
bluffs, as in the past.  He said that certainly RFMF officers 
have made remarks and laid plans, but Hughes is not convinced 
that, if Bainimarama gives the order, the ranks will follow, 
at least not for long. 
 
Qarase offers olive branch 
-------------------------- 
¶5. (U) In Parliament during final budget speeches on 11/22, 
PM Qarase included a comment about the current civil-military 
tension, stating the Government does not see the military as 
an adversary, and stressing he is open to a discussion of all 
contentious issues, with the proviso that rule of law must be 
maintained.  In the end, the budget passed with 40 yes votes 
(the ruling coalition plus the two opposition leaders), 26 no 
votes (all Fiji Labor Party members present and voting), and 
5 missing (FLP Ministers; three were overseas on official 
trips that Qarase arranged to protect them from having to 
vote, and two were in hospital). 
 
Qarase and Chaudhry talking multi-party solution 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
SUVA 00000516  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6. (C) The five FLP Ministers who did not vote are now 
subject of a tug of war between Qarase and FLP leader 
Chaudhry over loyalties: to Cabinet or to party.  Qarase has 
written to the four FLP Ministers who voted against the 
budget demanding their resignations from Cabinet.  Chaudhry 
has said publicly that, if the four are forced to resign, the 
FLP will take all its Ministers out of the multi-party 
Cabinet.  Qarase told us the evening of 11/23 that he had a 
"very productive" private meeting with Chaudhry that 
afternoon.  Qarase believes he has out-maneuvered Chaudhry. 
Both leaders realize the "multi-party Cabinet" is extremely 
popular in Fiji.  (Unpublished Tebbutt polling confirms 
that.)  If the multi-party Cabinet disintegrates, the leader 
perceived to be at fault will suffer in public esteem. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶7. (U) Suva is quiet going into the weekend, though the 
politically aware are all on edge. 
DINGER

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Viewing cable 06SUVA516, FIJI UPDATE FRI. 11/24: PM OFFERS OLIVE BRANCH;