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RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 1386
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000509 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2016 
TAGS: PREL MARR ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/16: PM QARASE WON'T CAPITULATE; 
INQUIRES ABOUT FOREIGN INTERVENTION 
 
REF: A. USDAO SUVA 201455Z NOV 06 
 
     ¶B. SUVA 506 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D) 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander 
Bainimarama indicated publicly on Nov. 21 what he told 
Embassy DATT privately on Nov. 20 (Ref A): that he intends to 
remove the Qarase Government o/a Dec. 4.  Diplomats met with 
Home Affairs Minister Vosanibola and PM Qarase, and also 
informed Police Commissioner Hughes, about Bainimarama's 
clear statement of intent to remove the Government. 
Vosanibola asked the diplomats to request their governments 
to re-emphasize to Bainimarama the costs of a coup.  Qarase 
described all of Bainimarama's demands as unconstitutional, 
said the Government cannot capitulate, and inquired if 
foreign intervention might be possible.  The PM's Office has 
heard from President Iloilo's office that, contrary to 
Bainimarama's description (Ref A), the President did not 
provide the Commodore a "green light" to act yesterday.  We 
will continue to seek opportunities to attempt to influence 
the Commander, though our impression is his focus is entirely 
domestic: to remove Qarase, no matter what the cost.  End 
summary. 
 
Bainimarama says publicly: Army to act in two weeks 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
¶2. (C) Ref. A described a conversation last evening, Nov. 20, 
between RFMF Commander Bainimarama and the Embassy DATT in 
which Bainimarama made clear he intends to remove the Qarase 
Government o/a December 1-4, unless it capitulates on all 
demands.  Bainimarama suggested that he had received a "green 
light" for his plans from President Iloilo earlier in the 
day.  In a media interview in Fijian on the morning of Nov. 
21 prior to flying to New Zealand to visit family, 
Bainimarama reportedly stated that "the military will move in 
to take action in relation to their demands if the government 
does not act within the next two weeks."  Bainimarama 
reiterated that, if PM Qarase does not meet all RFMF demands, 
"the military will commence its work in two weeks time." 
 
Diplomats consult with PM and Home Affairs Minister 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
¶3. (C) Given the somber news of the Commodore's firm 
intention to commit a serious criminal act, which the DATT 
had shared with his Australian and New Zealand colleagues, 
the Ambassador met with the High Commissioners of Australia, 
New Zealand, and the UK today, Nov. 21.  They agreed to seek 
an appointment with Home Affairs Minister Vosanibola, plus PM 
Qarase, if available.  The Aussie High Commissioner also 
conveyed the news to Police Commissioner Hughes. 
 
Minister asks US, others to re-lobby Bainimarama 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
¶4. (C) Minister Vosanibola met with the group in the 
afternoon.  That was followed by a meeting with the PM.  We 
conveyed the essence of the news to both leaders.  They had 
earlier been briefed by Commissioner Hughes.  Home Affairs 
CEO Ligairi said he had just received a phone call from an 
impeccable source at the Army camp reporting that the plan is 
to kidnap several senior Ministers, including the PM. 
Ligairi had received no word about timing.  Vosanibola asked 
the diplomats to re-emphasize to Bainimarama the costs of 
engineering a coup.  Vosanibola asked New Zealand High 
Commissioner Green, in particular, if his government could 
attempt to influence Bainimarama during his current visit to 
Wellington.  Green said the NZ Government is contemplating 
such a conversation, including a reminder that a coup could 
well mean no more visits to the family in New Zealand. 
Ambassador Dinger noted that the USG intends to continue 
attempts to persuade Bainimarama against a coup. 
 
PM inquires about foreign intervention 
-------------------------------------- 
¶5. (C) In the meeting with PM Qarase, he described all six of 
Bainimarama's demands as "unconstitutional," given the 
limited role the RFMF Commander is allowed under the 1997 
Constitution.  Qarase said it would be impossible to 
capitulate and retain a democracy.  Asked what the Government 
has in mind to prepare for or respond to Bainimarama's plan, 
Qarase seemed at a loss.  He did ask: "What is the 
possibility of foreign intervention?  We are working to save 
democracy here."  Aussie High Commissioner Rawson noted it is 
possible to ask the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) leaders for 
intervention; however, she suggested it might be a tough 
call.  As the PM's CEO had noted in a side conversation while 
 
SUVA 00000509  002 OF 002 
 
 
waiting for the PM, the specter of foreign intervention could 
actually help unite the Fijian community against the outside 
threat.  At that, Qarase noted that, with modern, precision 
technology, a foreign force would not necessarily have to 
actually invade.  Qarase and Vosanibola moved on from the 
diplomatic meeting to a session of the National Security 
Council. 
 
PM's Office is told President gave no "green light" 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
¶6. (C) In the meetings, the diplomats inquired about the 
"green light" that Bainimarama said President Iloilo had 
provided.  The PM's office had checked with the President's 
Official Secretary, who gave assurance that the 
Bainimarama-Iloilo meeting had been purely a kava ceremony, 
and there was no discussion at all of the RFMF's plans 
against the Qarase Government.  Note: The diplomats had 
agreed that NZ High Commissioner Green, who was scheduled to 
have dinner with Vice President Madraiwiwi this evening, 
would seek insights from the VP about the Presidential 
meeting.  Unfortunately, in late p.m. the NZ HighComm 
received word that Madraiwiwi has been admitted to hospital. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶7. (C) We will continue to seek further insight into what 
took place between the President and Commodore at Government 
House, although under Fiji's constitutional system, the 
President would only have authority to provide a "green 
light" for the RFMF Commander to act if advised to do so by 
the PM.  That will not happen.  We don't know if Qarase will 
formalize a request for international intervention.  If he 
does, everyone would expect Australia and New Zealand to be 
the ones approached.  As for lobbying Bainimarama, we have 
done so and will gladly continue to do so; however, we have 
no expectation that international pressure is a factor in 
Bainimarama's calculations.  Our sense is his focus is 
entirely domestic: to clean out what he sees as the tainted 
Qarase Government and to protect himself and senior RFMF 
officers from prosecution, no matter what the cost. 
 
¶8. (C) On a side note, Bainimarama has indicated publicly he 
doesn't want to commence action during school exams, which 
end Dec. 1.  Another more likely explanation for the Dec. 1-4 
deadline is that the annual Army-Police rugby match, the Ratu 
Sukuna Bowl, is to take place Dec. 1.  In Fiji, rugby rules. 
Believe it or not. 
DINGER