VZCZCXRO3482
PP RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0506/01 3232332
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 192332Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3460
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 1380
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY PRIORITY 0975
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 1161
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000506 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2016 
TAGS: PREL MARR ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/20: 
 
REF: A. SUVA 502 
     ¶B. SUVA 499 
     ¶C. USDAO SUVA 152253Z NOV 06 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander 
Bainimarama informed the media over the weekend that he has 
no intention of meeting with Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) 
mediators or with PM Qarase (Ref A) until the PM accepts all 
the RFMF's demands.  Bainimarama said that, if there has been 
no "clean up" of the Qarase Government by early December, the 
RFMF has "alternative plans" but not a coup.  In Parliament, 
a State Minister labeled Bainimarama a terrorist and reported 
that the RFMF has compiled a list for an "alternative 
Cabinet."  Bainimarama intends a private visit to New Zealand 
for the next week, the GNZ permitting.  We comment that both 
Bainimarama and Qarase appear to be scrambling to salvage 
their positions, suggesting neither is over-confident about 
how events are transpiring.  One hopes that cool heads will 
prevail, but many in Fiji remain very worried about a coup. 
End summary. 
 
Bainimarama insists on "clean up" by December 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶2. (U) We understand RFMF Commander Bainimarama met with 
President Iloilo on Monday, Nov. 20.  We are seeking a 
readout.  Bainimarama has made clear that he has no intention 
of meeting with PM Qarase or the GCC mediators, at least not 
until PM Qarase meets all of the RFMF's "non-negotiable" 
demands (Ref B).  In a media interview on Nov. 19, 
Bainimarama said the RFMF sees no need for a coup, but it 
will insist on a "clean up" of the Qarase-led government by 
sometime in early December, after school exams end.  (Note: 
Fiji schools end their year on Dec. 1.)  Asked what "clean 
up" means, Bainimarama reportedly said that if the Government 
doesn't agree to clean itself up, the RFMF has "alternative 
plans."  He reportedly told the media the military would let 
the nation know of its intentions well in advance. 
 
Minister calls Bainimarama a terrorist 
-------------------------------------- 
¶3. (U) In a speech to Parliament on Nov. 17, State Minister 
Ted Young described Bainimarama and his senior RFMF officers 
as "terrorists" using intimidation for political purposes and 
threatening democracy.  He advised military personnel not to 
be gullible, not to follow any orders that they feel are 
unlawful.  Young criticized the Fiji Labor Party (FLP) for 
silence on the issue, and he claimed that reliable sources 
had told him an RFMF list for an "alternative Cabinet" 
includes FLP Leader Chaudhry's name.  Young said 
Bainimarama's head "should be cut off at the neck." 
Bainimarama in turn called for Young to come and try to cut 
off his head. 
 
Budget maneuvering continues 
---------------------------- 
¶4. (U) Debate on Fiji's 2007 budget continues until the vote 
on Wed., Nov. 22.  We have heard reliably that PM Qarase 
intends to have key FLP members of the multi-party Cabinet 
overseas on the day of the vote to keep them from having to 
formalize their support of the budget, which would contravene 
the FLP's dictate to be in opposition.  FLP President Koroi 
has said such a tactic will not save the Cabinet members. 
However, we hear the PM's office has legal advice that 
precedent makes clear being abroad on official business is a 
valid excuse.  If the FLP expels Cabinet members, a judicial 
challenge is expected. 
 
A week in New Zealand? 
---------------------- 
¶5. (C) Bainimarama intends to depart Tuesday, Nov. 21, to New 
Zealand for about a week to visit his daughter and 
granddaughter.  We hear New Zealand PM Clark is personally 
considering whether to allow the visit to proceed.  Some 
advisors are arguing that, given the PM's firm public remarks 
about Bainimarama's inappropriate behavior, to permit the 
visit would make the NZ Government appear inconsistent. 
Others are arguing that it is a private visit and should 
proceed. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶6. (C) It appears to us that both Bainimarama and Qarase are 
playing the sorts of cards one plays when unsure of one's 
strength.  Bainimarama's words sound firm, but if he really 
was sure of his forces and was intending a coup, why would he 
 
SUVA 00000506  002 OF 002 
 
 
be continually moving his line in the sand farther down the 
beach?  If he really does not intend a coup but is intent on 
piling on pressure to drive reform, his latest demands, 
particularly to remove the Police Commissioner and to drop 
all police investigations aimed at the RFMF leadership, seem 
hardly intended to achieve real progress.  In fact, the 
demand about dropping investigations could appear the effort 
of a desperate man who has put himself in a sedition box with 
no happy way out.  Several savvy Indian 
businessmen-politicians in Fiji's West told our DCM today 
that they are more worried than they have ever been before. 
They figure the "drop the investigations" and "fire the 
Commissioner" demands have crossed the line and indicate a 
coup is coming. 
 
¶7. (C) Qarase has not succeeded to date in invoking the 
constitutional process, via the President, to evict 
Bainimarama.  His effort to bring criminal indictments 
against the RFMF senior leadership leaves open the question 
of who can enforce those indictments if the RFMF stands by 
its leaders.  With such uncertainty, Qarase seems to be 
playing the Fijian-race card.  He has invoked the GCC, and 
one presumes his office encouraged State Minister Young's 
speech.  Both moves surely are aimed at spurring the large 
majority of Fijians who back Qarase to work on their friends 
in the RFMF to resist the Commander. 
 
¶8. (C) One has to wonder just what Bainimarama contemplates 
as an "alternative plan" that is not a coup but that forces 
PM Qarase and his Government to clean up or leave office?  In 
a conversation last week with the Embassy DATT (Ref C), 
Bainimarama seemed to suggest the RFMF might shut down 
Parliament and keep it from functioning.  Surely that action 
to any reasonable person would be characterized as a coup. 
We are getting a distinct impression that the RFMF leadership 
went down its present road without truly thinking through the 
risks and consequences.  One hopes for cool heads to prevail; 
but many in Fiji, like the businessmen in the West, remain 
very worried. 
DINGER