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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000502 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2016 
TAGS: PREL MARR ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/17: PRES AND COMMANDER TO MEET; 
OPINION POLL FAVORS QARASE 
 
REF: SUVA 499 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
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¶1. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander 
Bainimarama is scheduled to meet with President Iloilo next 
Monday, presumably to discuss the President's suspension 
order of Oct. 31.  At the moment, given entrenched views by 
both Bainimarama and PM Qarase, insiders are not placing 
great hope in mediation efforts.  A new opinion poll 
indicates that the public tilts toward the Government in the 
current standoff.  By ethnic group, there is a split: 
Fijians heavily favor Qarase; Indians favor Bainimarama.  On 
job approval, Police Commissioner Hughes gets highest marks 
across the board, and Qarase gets very high marks from 
Fijians, whereas a majority of Fijians disapprove of 
Bainimarama's performance.  With the Army composed nearly 
entirely of Fijians, that should give Bainimarama pause, but 
it probably won't.  End summary. 
 
Bainimarama and President Iloilo to meet 
---------------------------------------- 
¶2. (C) Vice President Madraiwiwi has informed us that RFMF 
Commander Bainimarama is to meet with President Iloilo on 
Monday, Nov. 20.  That would be their first face-to-face 
interaction since Iloilo's suspension order of Oct. 31, the 
RFMF's refusal to comply, and Bainimarama's later return to 
Fiji.  We do not know the agenda, though one can surmise 
Bainimarama will seek confirmation that Iloilo has officially 
withdrawn the suspension order.  Note: We heard Iloilo's 
office recently sought PM Qarase's advice on withdrawing the 
suspension, arguing that since the suspension was on advice 
of the PM in the first place, it should be the PM who advises 
to withdraw the order.  We have the impression the PM did not 
encourage the withdrawal.  Another topic could be the 
President's blessing for a submission to the Supreme Court 
seeking a definitive ruling on the breadth of the RFMF's 
roles under the Constitution.  Bainimarama has told us he 
sees no need for such a judicial process. 
 
Low hopes for mediation at the moment 
------------------------------------- 
¶3. (C) VP Madraiwiwi told us he is sitting on the sidelines 
at this point, pending further developments between the 
military and the Qarase Government.  We have heard indirectly 
that Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) Chairman Bokini does not 
hold out much hope for the mediation effort the GCC is 
organizing.  He reportedly figures both Bainimarama and 
Qarase are dug in, and the only solution is the departure of 
one or the other, probably within the next month or so. 
 
Poll shows public tilt toward Government 
---------------------------------------- 
¶4. (U) The most recent results of the Tebbutt Poll (Fiji's 
only reasonably scientific polling operation, financed in 
good part by the Fiji Times newspaper) were revealed on Nov. 
¶17.  Polling took place via personal interviews across Fiji 
Nov. 14-15 with a sample of 1018 adults.  When questioned: 
"Who do you believe is in the right in the current standoff 
between the Military and the Government?" the overall results 
showed 45% favoring the Government; 36% the Military; 6% 
both; 4% neither; others unsure.  By ethnic group, 67% of 
Fijians favored the Government and only 18% favored the 
Military; 54% of Indians favored the Military and only 24% 
favored the Government.  By region, the Suva area was pretty 
evenly split: 42% Government; 38% Military.  In the West, the 
split was 51% Government; 31% Military. 
 
Qarase has strong Fijian backing; Bainimarama doesn't 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
¶5. (U) The poll also asked how good a job leaders are doing. 
Overall, PM Qarase had 57% approval and 23% disapproval.  He 
received 81% support from Fijians, with only 5% disapproving; 
Indians showed 40% disapproval, with 34% approval.  Overall, 
Commander Bainimarama had 51% approval and 31% disapproval. 
He received only 30% approval from Fijians, with 53% 
disapproving; Indians showed 71% approval and only 12% 
disapproval.  Overall, Police Commissioner Hughes received 
79% approval and 7% disapproval, with all segments 
overwhelmingly positive.  Opposition Leader Beddoes also had 
strong figures, with overall 56% approval and 12% 
disapproval.  FLP leader Chaudhry had 42% approval and 27% 
disapproval.  As expected, Chaudhry was favored by a majority 
of Indians, but by only 30% of Fijians. 
 
Comment 
 
SUVA 00000502  002 OF 002 
 
 
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¶6. (C) The Tebbutt Poll results should give Commodore 
Bainimarama pause.  They reconfirm the election results from 
last May: that a large majority of Fijians back the Qarase 
Government.  While a majority of Indians back Bainimarama, it 
is the Fijians who would be wild cards in any coup attempt. 
The very high approval rating for Police Commissioner Hughes 
should be another signal to Bainimarama that at least the 
demand for Hughes to resign is going against the public will. 
 Our impression is, though, that Bainimarama probably cares 
about polls about as much as he seemingly cares about the 
importance of international opinion: not much. 
DINGER