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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000497 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2016 
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/15: WAITING FOR CIV-MIL MEDIATION; 
STOKING BUDGET POLITICS 
 
REF: A. SUVA 494 
 
     ¶B. SUVA 489 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C) Suva remains superficially calm.  Republic of Fiji 
Military Forces (RFMF) reserves are finishing a two-week camp 
and are about to return home, at least temporarily.  At the 
same time, the Army has added to its list of "political" 
complaints to Prime Minister Qarase.  The Chair of the Great 
Council of Chiefs thinks mediation can be the solution, 
though he also believes the key issues are "personal" from 
2000, not controversial bills.  Fiji's tourism industry, 
caught in the storm, is suffering.  In Parliament, FLP leader 
Chaudhry has suspended discussion of key land issues, pending 
establishment of multi-party cabinet ground rules, which 
Qarase blames Chaudhry for delaying.  FLP cabinet members are 
staking out positions on the budget, with no easy answers. 
Politics has turned from consensus within the cabinet process 
to discord on the floor.  We comment that Fiji could really 
use some encouraging news; but we are not seeing it at the 
moment.  End summary. 
 
Army reserves turning homeward 
------------------------------ 
¶2. (C) RFMF territorial (reserve) forces that have been 
exercising for the past two weeks marched into camp today, 
Nov. 15, for final activities before returning to regular 
lives.  When the call-up commenced, it was publicly billed as 
"routine;" however, we have heard from a reliable source that 
at least in one instance RFMF soldiers showed up at a home 
and threatened to "put a bullet in (the) head" of a 
territorial who attempted to opt out.  That sort of 
strong-arm tactic created considerable worry in the community 
about the purpose of the exercise, but to date nothing 
untoward has happened.  We hear Commodore Bainimarama, in an 
address at a final parade, predicted that territorial forces 
will be called back to camp after annual school exams are 
over in a few weeks. 
 
More RFMF "political" demands; PM ready to talk 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶3. (C) PM Qarase told us the evening of Nov. 14 that he had 
just received a letter from the RFMF supplementing a list of 
grievances sent last week (see Ref B).  Qarase described the 
additions as "more of the same," more raising of political 
issues, and he grumbled a wish that they "would stick to 
their own business."  Qarase insisted to us that he wants a 
dialogue with Bainimarama, thinking talk is the only way out 
of the current situation.  He remains hopeful that a 
mediation effort by the Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) can 
bear fruit. 
 
GCC ready to mediate 
-------------------- 
¶4. (C) We spoke with GCC Chairman Ratu Ovini Bokini on Nov. 
¶15.  He admitted that discussion in last week's meeting was 
sometimes heated.  When Bainimarama was verbally attacking 
Qarase (the PM told us: "the Commander rubbished me"), Bokini 
saw a number of Chiefs busily scribbling notes, getting ready 
to fire back.  Bokini decided Q&A would only add to problems, 
so he escorted Bainimarama from the room without questions. 
Asked about plans for GCC mediation between Qarase and 
Bainimarama, Bokini said Qarase is ready to commence ASAP; 
Bainimarama has yet to respond.  Bokini, who departs on a 
business trip to LA tomorrow, plans to leave the lead 
mediation role to the three-person committee he established. 
He will be a "back up" as required. 
 
Real issues "personal" from 2000 
-------------------------------- 
¶5. (C) Bokini told us he believes GCC mediation has a real 
chance to work.  When we asked the GCC view of the three 
"controversial" pieces of legislation Bainimarama has 
decried, Bokini made clear his sense that all can be put on a 
back burner without problem.  He figures the land bills can 
"go dormant" for quite a while; and the scaled-back RTUB 
(reconciliation) draft may be so spare now, with the removal 
of "amnesty" provisions, that, in his view, there is no sense 
in proceeding with it.  Asked if those bills are the heart of 
Bainimarama's problem with the Qarase Government, Bokini said 
he thinks not.  He believes the big issues go back to the 
events of 2000, are "personal," and must be "talked through" 
by the two men.  Bokini suggested that, since Vice President 
Madraiwiwi is Bainimarama's high chief, the GCC will not 
attempt traditional pressures on the Commodore unless the VP 
 
SUVA 00000497  002 OF 003 
 
 
gives an OK. 
 
Devastation for tourism industry 
-------------------------------- 
¶6. (C) The current civil-military crisis has hit tourism 
hard.  Dixon Seeto, head of the Fiji Hotel Association, told 
us occupancy rates are currently around 50%, when they should 
be around 80%.  The immediate future looks even bleaker.  New 
bookings have almost dried up completely.  One hotel alone, 
the Sheraton Denarau, has lost about 2000 room nights and USD 
1 million to date.  Hotels are laying off staff.  Temporary 
workers are gone, and now permanent staff are being laid off 
or having hours cut back.  Seeto said an RFMF press release 
two weeks ago saying there would be no coup was marginally 
helpful, but bookings will only pick up when there is a 
"positive signal" that the crisis is past.  He is not 
optimistic for that anytime soon.  Asked if laid-off 
employees are blaming the hotels, Seeto said: no, they 
realize the RFMF is to blame. 
 
FLP's Chaudhry stalls land talks; EU factor 
------------------------------------------- 
¶7. (C) PM Qarase told us the evening of Nov. 14 that he 
received a letter from FLP leader Chaudhry on Nov. 13 
suspending any further discussion of land issues and 
constitutional amendments until ground rules for Fiji's 
current multi-party cabinet are resolved.  Qarase expressed 
great frustration about this, since, in his view, it is 
Chaudhry who has delayed discussion of the ground rules, with 
Qarase patiently waiting for the FLP to be ready for talks. 
Qarase earlier had predicted the land issue could be 
resolved, with FLP cooperation, during the first quarter of 
¶2007.  Note: the European Union's very large assistance plan 
for Fiji's sugar industry may be in the balance.  The EU has 
said it needs to see significant movement on the land issue 
before March 31, 2007, for its sugar assistance to proceed. 
End note. 
 
From consensus to "dishonest" discord 
------------------------------------- 
¶8. (C) The Chaudhry letter plays into the theater under way 
during the current budget session of Parliament.  With no 
formal multi-party cabinet ground rules established, Qarase 
has stated that FLP cabinet members must vote for the budget 
on the floor of Parliament, per normal Westminster rules.  He 
confirmed to us that all nine FLP MPs endorsed the budget 
proposal, including its now-controversial VAT increase, 
during cabinet deliberations.  That had to be the case, 
since, he observed, Fiji's cabinet operates only by 
consensus.  Qarase sees those who now are speaking against 
VAT as "dishonest."  On the other hand, Chaudhry has made 
clear the FLP expects all its MPs, including multi-party 
cabinet members, to vote against the budget or face expulsion 
from the party, which under Fiji's Constitution would trigger 
a by-election.  We hear that Chaudhry is contemplating an 
attempt to pull the FLP out of cabinet entirely, until the 
ground rules are established. 
 
A Cabinet remix? 
---------------- 
¶9. (C) So far in statements on the floor, one FLP cabinet 
member has said he will support the budget; two have 
indicated they will not; and others are fudging.  Reportedly, 
Qarase is considering sending several of his favorite FLP 
cabinet members overseas at the time of the budget vote in an 
attempt to protect them.  Qarase told us he sees the process 
working out satisfactorily: FLP cabinet members who have not 
taken "multi-party" to heart will leave; the ones who in the 
PM's view are valuable contributors will stay.  Note: It may 
be that Qarase would have to request FLP replacements for any 
FLP members who depart Cabinet, since the Constitution has 
been interpreted to require proportional representation in 
Cabinet from all parties that have 10% or more of the seats 
in Parliament. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶10. (C) Severe tensions will continue in Fiji until Qarase 
and Bainimarama find a way out of their impasse.  Whether 
that is via GCC or Vice Presidential mediation, or 
suspension/criminal charges against the Commodore, or a coup, 
or just a backing away by both sides to lick wounds and 
continue the fight another day is not at all clear.  What is 
clear is that, in the meantime, Fiji's economy is suffering 
and the RFMF's reputation is being tarnished.  The sparring 
between Qarase and Chaudhry over the multi-party cabinet and 
the budget is not a huge surprise.  We had heard rumors that 
Chaudhry, always a skeptic about collaborating with the 
 
SUVA 00000497  003 OF 003 
 
 
enemy, was plotting to scuttle the multi-party cabinet over 
the budget.  It will be a shame if that multi-party 
experiment and an opportunity to tackle land issues become 
the casualties.  The people of Fiji, and the businesses that 
consider investing here, need encouraging news; but they have 
not been receiving it lately. 
DINGER