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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000489 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016 
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV ASEC CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI UPDATE 11/13: GCC TRIES TO MEDIATE; NO STABLE 
OUTCOME IN SIGHT 
 
REF: A. SUVA 486 
     ¶B. DINGER-EAP/ANP E-MAIL OF NOV. 10 
     ¶C. SUVA 460 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander 
Bainimarama appeared before the Great Council of Chiefs on 
Nov. 10 and angrily attacked PM Qarase and his policies. 
Thereafter, the GCC tilted toward Qarase and initiated an 
effort to mediate.  It is possible an attempt will be made to 
resuscitate a dialogue among Bainimarama, Qarase, and Vice 
President Madraiwiwi; however, no easy way out is apparent. 
Meanwhile, the Fiji Police reportedly expect sedition charges 
against Bainimarama shortly, followed by the President 
issuing a successful suspension order.  In comment, we note 
that Fiji is in an uneasy calm, with no confidence that a 
politically-stable solution is in sight.  As if all that 
isn't enough, Fiji's multi-party Cabinet is under threat, 
with the national budget bill a major hurdle.  And former PM 
Rabuka is on trial for attempting to incite mutiny against 
Bainimarama in 2000.  End summary. 
 
Bainimarama vents before GCC 
---------------------------- 
¶2. (C) Per ref A, Fiji's Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) met on 
Thursday, Nov. 10, at the request of PM Qarase in an attempt 
to contribute to a solution of Fiji's civil-military crisis. 
RFMF Commander Bainimarama declined to attend.  However, as 
noted ref B, when a delegation from the GCC visited 
Bainimarama that evening he agreed to participate in a 
continuation of the meeting on Friday, on the condition that 
the GCC would commit not to involve itself in the crisis, 
other than to listen to both sides.  Bainimarama and about 
ten of his senior officers attended the Friday session. 
Bainimarama spent about an hour conveying his views and 
responding to questions.  He reportedly called Qarase a liar 
to his face and decried "racist" policies of the Government. 
 
GCC tilts to Qarase; will attempt to mediate 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶3. (C) After the RFMF officers left, the GCC agreed to a 
series of resolutions, contrary to the supposed commitment to 
Bainimarama, though we gather he was not surprised.  The 
Chiefs set up a four-person committee, chaired by GCC 
Chairman Bokini, to find ways to mediate the crisis.  That 
committee is to report back at the next GCC meeting in 
mid-December.  The GCC also affirmed their belief in rule of 
law, democracy, customary laws, the right of Parliament to 
legislate, etc.  They said all citizens must "respect, abide 
and protect" such rights at all times.  While there was no 
explicit mention of three controversial bills, the language 
on parliamentary legislating could be read to endorse having 
the bills receive consideration.  All in all, the GCC clearly 
tilted toward Qarase. 
 
As Bainimarama attacks Qarase; a hint of dialogue? 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶4. (U) Late on Nov. 10, Bainimarama informed the media that, 
since the PM has "given up" on the Army, the Army has also 
"given up" on the PM.  In other statements, Bainimarama 
reportedly said he has "washed his hands" of the PM and 
warned that the PM is "living on borrowed time."  On the 
other hand, he also reportedly committed to the GCC that the 
Army will allow the Government time to resolve the crisis. 
An aspect of that could be a resumption of a dialogue among 
Vice President Madraiwiwi, Bainimarama, and Qarase that began 
last February during an earlier phase of the crisis but that 
stumbled after only a couple of meetings when Bainimarama 
stopped meeting with Qarase, claiming their discussions were 
going nowhere.  On Nov. 11, during the opening of a women's 
crisis center in Suva, the VP noted to us that maybe he 
should repaint his office to match the center's soothing 
soft-green walls, suggesting: "It might help calm the 
Commander." 
 
Demands and counters 
-------------------- 
¶5. (C) On Wednesday, Nov. 8, prior to the GCC meeting, 
Bainimarama had sent Qarase a list of issues that the Army 
insisted must be resolved.  The list, in reality demands, 
reportedly included: to withdraw the controversial bills; to 
remove Police Commissioner Hughes; and to scrap 
investigations against the military, including allegations of 
murdering mutinous soldiers in 2000 and more recent 
allegations of subversion.  Qarase said publicly that he 
 
SUVA 00000489  002 OF 003 
 
 
immediately wrote back reiterating his willingness to enter 
into discussions.  On Thursday, Qarase told the GCC two of 
the controversial bills that have already been introduced 
"would not be withdrawn."  He did note that they can be 
revised via parliamentary means, as reportedly is happening 
with the reconciliation (RTUB) bill.  Qarase's refusal to 
just scrap the bills reportedly contributed to Bainimarama's 
angry display before the GCC. 
 
Manueli sees no easy way out 
---------------------------- 
¶6. (C) Former Commander, RFMF, and former Minister for Home 
Affairs, Paul Manueli, who remains a senior advisor to 
Bainimarama and others in the Army, stopped by on Nov. 13. 
He suggested that personal animosities between Qarase and 
Bainimarama are intense, with fault on both sides, and it is 
difficult to see a way out.  He said the Commodore has been 
receiving some "awful advice" from behind the scenes, as has 
Qarase.  Manueli claimed that on Oct. 31, when the President 
sought to suspend Bainimarama, senior RFMF officers were on 
the verge of acting against the Government.  On seeing that, 
Manueli rushed to VP Madraiwiwi and argued successfully for 
the President to inactivate the suspension order.  Asked the 
current mood of the RFMF senior leadership regarding a coup, 
Manueli expressed uncertainty.  When we stressed the 
importance of protecting the democratic system, Manueli 
agreed.  When we noted that Bainimarama and his senior 
officers now seem to acknowledge no power above themselves, 
Manueli offered no response. 
 
A new plan to force Bainimarama out? 
------------------------------------ 
¶7. (C) A senior police contact has informed the Embassy that 
police investigations of the RFMF sedition charges are 
complete and have gone to the Director of Public Prosecutions 
(DPP).  The aim is a very rapid response, this week or next. 
With a green light, the police will seek a court summons that 
would lead to a court date, probably in December.  With the 
court summons, the police expect the President would attempt 
again to suspend Bainimarama, pending court action.  With 
that, BrigGen Iowane Naivalurua, who just returned from 
heading Fiji's contingent to UNAMI in Iraq, would be named 
Acting Commander; and the police believe Naivalurua has the 
clout to win over nearly all the RFMF.  The police contact 
said, except for a few RFMF officers at the top, the military 
and police still have good relations.  The police feel 
pressure to act against the RFMF senior leaders, since "they 
have broken the law." 
 
Multi-party cabinet under threat 
-------------------------------- 
¶8. (U) In other news, Fiji's multi-party Cabinet experiment 
may be severely tested shortly.  The Fiji Labor Party (FLP) 
held a meeting on Nov. 9, with some, but not all, of FLP's 
nine Cabinet members attending.  FLP leader Chaudhry 
announced afterward that the party unanimously agreed to 
oppose the Qarase budget because the proposal is "anti-poor." 
 Chaudhry claimed Qarase did not consult on tax aspects, 
including a 20% increase in VAT (from 12.5% to 15%).  Qarase 
and Chaudhry have had inconclusive discussions on guidelines 
for the multi-party Cabinet, but Qarase clearly expects all 
Cabinet members to vote on the floor of Parliament in favor 
of any legislation Cabinet previously approved.  FLP cabinet 
members may have to choose: vote with Cabinet (thereby facing 
FLP censure) or vote with FLP (thereby facing loss of Cabinet 
portfolio). 
 
Former PM Rabuka in the dock 
---------------------------- 
¶9. (U) A criminal trial of former PM Rabuka commenced on Nov. 
¶10.  He is charged with inciting RFMF officers in July and 
November 2000 to mutiny against Bainimarama.  Former RFMF 
LtCol. Seravakula (now with the UN in Afghanistan) is the 
first witness.  He has testified he received phone calls from 
Rabuka urging mutiny but declined to act. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶10. (C) Fiji has settled into an uneasy calm, without a sense 
that a coup is imminent but without confidence that a 
peaceful, stability-creating solution is on the horizon.  The 
police scenario in para 7 sounds a lot like the Government 
scenario for Oct. 31 (Ref C), with the exceptions that 
Bainimarama and BG Naivalurua both are now in Fiji.  There is 
no doubt Naivalurua is highly respected.  There must be 
doubt, given the RFMF's rebuff of the President just two 
weeks ago, whether a new effort to suspend Bainimarama will 
succeed. 
 
SUVA 00000489  003 OF 003 
 
 
DINGER