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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TN
SUBJECT: NEXT STEPS IN TONGA'S POLITICAL REFORM 
 
REF: SUVA 433 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR LARRY M. DINGER.  SECTIONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (SBU)  Tonga Prime Minister Sevele has responded to the 
proposals for political reform put forward by the National 
Committee on Political Reform (ref) with an alternate reform 
model.  The NCPR called for all members of Parliament to be 
elected, with the PM and all cabinet members to be chosen 
from among MPs.  Sevele's proposal calls for a lower number 
of elected MPs and allows some non-elected officials to be 
named cabinet ministers and, consequently, members of 
Parliament.  Government officials we spoke to insist the PM's 
proposal is consistent with the NCPR framework, but assumes a 
longer transition period for political reform.  Some 
democracy advocates have a less benign view of the 
government's proposal, noting it could allow continued 
political control by the King for the foreseeable future. 
One group has circulated a petition calling for the PM's 
resignation.  We comment that either proposal would be a 
major step forward toward democracy in Tonga.  End Summary. 
 
A committee to examine the NCPR 
------------------------------- 
¶2. (U)  As noted reftel, the National Committee of the 
Kingdom of Tonga on Political Reform (NCPR) submitted its 
report to Parliament October 3.  The report recommends an 
all-elected, 26-member Parliament, with 17 members elected by 
the general public (up from 9 at present) and 9 members 
elected by Tonga's 33 nobles (the same as at present).  The 
NCPR proposed that the King select the PM from among the MPs. 
 The PM would in turn select cabinet members, also from among 
members of Parliament.  Upon receiving the report, Tonga's 
cabinet recommended setting up a tripartite committee to 
examine the reform proposals.  The proposed committee would 
consist of three peoples' representatives, three nobles' 
representatives, and three cabinet ministers.  The committee 
is currently awaiting approval by Parliament, which just 
resumed its session. 
 
PM Sevele puts forward an alternative proposal 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶3. (U) On October 19 Prime Minister Fred Sevele announced an 
alternate reform proposal for consideration by the tripartite 
committee.  The Sevele road map for political reform" 
proposes 14 people's representatives in a 23-28 person 
Parliament.  It allows the King to appoint all 15 members of 
the cabinet, although it specifies that 2/3 of the appointees 
should be upon the advice of the Prime Minister.  The 
proposal allows for up to a third of the cabinet to come from 
outside of Parliament.  These additional appointees would 
automatically become members of Parliament.  The King, 
therefore, could appoint up to five members of Parliament. 
The five appointees plus the nine nobles' representatives, 
traditional supporters of the monarchy, could bring the 
presumably royalist MPs to 14, equaling the proposed number 
of peoples' representatives and leaving the balance of power 
with the King. 
 
Pro-democracy groups disappointed in PM's proposal 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶4.  (SBU)  Democracy advocates were quick to criticize the 
Sevele road map.  Longtime democracy activist and MP Akilisi 
Pohiva, who was quietly pleased by the NCPR recommendations, 
complained in a press release issued November 2 that the PM's 
report implies that the government "has absolutely rejected 
the Committee for Political Reform report."  "What the PM is 
doing is literally calling for chaos which we do not want to 
happen."  Akaneti Lauti, the Director of the Friendly Islands 
Human Rights and Democracy Movement, told visiting Emboffs 
the Sevele model would leave too much power in the hands of 
the monarchy.  She complained that it "is not fair" for 
Sevele to circumvent the vetting process of the NCPR.  All 
other models for democratic change, including proposals from 
Akilisi, fellow People's Representative Clive Edwards and 
pro-democracy campaigner Laki Niu, were submitted to the NCPR 
for review and incorporated into the final report.  How could 
the PM submit his model, she asked rhetorically, when the 
whole discussion process was already completed?  Tonga's one 
female MP, Lepolo Mahe, told Emboff the PM's proposal is 
"arrogant and disrespectful toward the 90% of the population 
who support the NCPR recommendation that all MPs be elected." 
 Mahe insisted that if the road map is implemented as is, 
civil unrest is likely. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  An equally strident voice has been that of Ofa 
Simiki, a businesswoman who represents a group of small 
 
SUVA 00000480  002 OF 003 
 
 
business owners in Tonga.  Simiki is circulating a petition 
calling for the King to dismiss Sevele as PM.  The petition 
currently has approximately 200 signatures, she told us. 
Simiki said Tongans are disappointed that the PM did not 
submit his model during the NCPR's wide-reaching 
consultations earlier this year.  The public perceives the 
Sevele road map as yet another attempt to retain the status 
quo and "avoid being directly accountable to the people." 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Even among democracy campaigners, however, there 
is some grudging acceptance that Sevele's reform model is far 
better than the status quo.  Despite her reservations about 
the PM's proposal, Akaneti Lauti told us it is a step forward 
in the reform process.  Reverend Simote Vea, the Chairman of 
Mrs. Lauti's organization, the Friendly Islands Human Rights 
and Democracy Movement, told the press the proposal is 
generally positive, in that it contains "about 60 to 70 
percent" of the NCPR recommendations. 
 
Minister of Finance - proposal is an interim step 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶7.  (C)  Minister of Finance Siosiua 'Utoikamanu told 
visiting Emboffs October 30 that the criticism from peoples' 
representatives and NGOs shows that PM Sevele needs to 
explain its reform proposal more clearly.  Although the PM 
hasn't stated it explicitly, it is 'Utoikamanu's 
understanding that the proposal is an "interim step" toward 
fulfillment of the goals spelled out in the NCPR report.  The 
PM agrees with the general outlines of the NCPR; however, 
'Utoikamanu suggested, a "go slow" approach may be necessary 
at this time to insure Tonga remains politically and 
economically stable.  The ability to bring in qualified 
cabinet ministers from outside the small pool of elected 
representatives is especially important given Tonga's 
weakened civil service - the result of the early retirements 
of many skilled civil servants in conjunction with Tonga's 
economic austerity program. 
 
¶8.  (C)  Emphasizing that these are his own views, 
'Utoikamanu said he believes the proposal is open to 
negotiation with Parliament and civil society.  Perhaps, 
remarked 'Utoikamanu, the Sevele reform model is a bit too 
cautious.  "Other countries, some even smaller than ours, 
have shown they can function well with an all-elected 
legislature.  If the Cook Islands can do it, why can't we?" 
 
Australian High Comm sees enough for everyone 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶9.  (C)  Australia's High Commissioner to Tonga Colin Hill 
believes PM Sevele's proposed reform model is measured and 
reasonable.  Echoing 'Utoikamanu's comments, Hill told us he 
understands the model is interim in nature and will be 
augmented over time by additional reform steps.  Moreover, 
the new tripartite committee set up to review the NCPR will 
provide a good mechanism for consultation among the 
government, Parliament and civil society about the adequacy 
of the model.  The PM's proposal, he concluded,  is a good 
start toward implementing the NCPR recommendations - "there 
is something in this for everyone."  There is no doubt, he 
said, that the King backs the proposal.  Sevele would not go 
forward with any specific reform model without the King's OK. 
 
Sevele's own view: finding the balance 
-------------------------------------- 
¶10. (C) PM Sevele acknowledged to us on the margins of the 
recent Pacific Island Forum (PIF) meetings in Nadi that he is 
attempting a delicate balancing act: trying to encourage 
meaningful democratic reform while not panicking Tonga's 
conservatives who see no need for change.  In conversations 
with the King, Sevele has also received the distinct 
impression that, while the King has no problem with 
significant reforms, including the prospect of an all-elected 
Parliament, the King also prefers instituting reforms by 
"convention, not legislation."  Sevele believes the King and 
the Nobles must remain players in the Tonga system, even if 
they no longer dominate.  The PM's road map is intended to 
preserve the elite's roles, at least for the immediate future. 
 
Halapua comfortable with either option 
-------------------------------------- 
¶11. (C) Sitiveni Halapua, seconded from the East West 
Center's Pacific Island Development Program to the NCPR and 
in the end the author of the NCPR report, met with us in Suva 
recently before heading to the PIF in Nadi.  Halapua 
expressed comfort with PM Sevele's counter proposal for 
reforms, suggesting both roads would bring considerable 
democratic progress to Tonga. 
 
Comment 
 
SUVA 00000480  003 OF 003 
 
 
------- 
¶12.  (SBU)   PM Sevele has long stated that he prefers a 
gradual, multi-year reform program.  His alternate road map 
indicates his judgment that the NCPR report recommendations 
were a bit too progressive for Tonga today.  But given strong 
public endorsement of the NCPR process, compromises that move 
the Sevele model closer to the NCPR's recommendations may be 
possible in the months ahead.  We note that the King's 
reported preference for reforming by convention rather than 
legislation can have the advantage of not inflaming 
conservative passions.  On the other hand, "convention" 
requires a willing monarch, at least until precedents are 
well-established.  King Tupou V appears willing.  It is not 
obvious that his eventual successor -- the Crown Prince, 
formerly hidebound conservative PM Lavaka'ata -- would 
happily embrace democratic precedents. 
 
 
DINGER