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OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #1096/01 3201402
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161402Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5434
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVJ/AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO 0215
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2088

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 001096 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE (PFEUFFER) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL DREIER'S VISIT, 
NOVEMBER 19-25 
 
 
¶1. (U) Welcome to Macedonia! HDAC's assistance to 
the Macedonian parliament, both the provision of IT 
equipment and the opportunity for a professional visit to 
the United States earlier this year, has made a real 
contribution here.  Your visit, nearly three months into 
the new governmentQs mandate, comes at the right time both 
to consolidate what has been achieved through the HDAC 
program to date and to deliver some important messages to 
the new Macedonian government (GOM). 
 
CORE MESSAGES 
 
¶2. We believe the GOM should: 
 
--Pursue broad consultations and consensus-building with 
opposition parties on key legislation and implementation of 
reforms. 
 
--Demonstrate through results your commitment to 
implementation of the 2001 Framework Agreement (FWA), in 
close consultation with opposition parties and parties not 
in government. 
 
--Work for broad political consensus to implement your 
economic growth and reform agenda and to fulfill key 
criteria for NATO and EU membership (including fighting 
corruption in a non-partisan manner, combating trafficking 
in persons, and ensuring Macedonia meets international 
religious freedom standards). 
 
POLITICAL CONTEXT -- DIALOGUE INCHES FORWARD 
 
¶2. (SBU) The new inter-ethnic (ethnic Macedonian and ethnic 
Albanian) governing coalition headed by Prime Minister 
Gruevski was sworn-in on August 26.  The government has 
only just begun to implement some of its ambitious 
legislative and economic growth agenda.  Part of the reason 
for the slow start is that the government has been unable 
or unwilling so far to work effectively with the ethnic 
Albanian DUI party, which won the majority of eAlbanian 
votes in the July parliamentary elections but was not 
included in the governing coalition. 
(NOTE: Having won the majority of 
eAlbanian votes, DUI considers itself "out of government" 
but not/not in the opposition, and refuses to use the word 
"opposition" to describe itself.)  Also hampering progress 
is the fact that the government has dismissed or 
transferred and demoted many civil servants.  While some 
replacements are well-qualified, many newly-emptied 
positions remain vacant, and some have been filled with 
neophytes. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The government and DUI have made pro forma efforts 
to discuss their differences, but the dialogue has not 
produced practical positive results.  The GOM should 
acknowledge that it must work differently with DUI which, 
given its eAlbanian majority support, cannot be considered 
just a "typical" opposition party.  Consultation and 
compromise with DUI on key legislative initiatives, 
especially those related to the Framework Agreement (FWA), 
must begin early on, and the government should demonstrate 
flexibility and generosity in reaching consensus on those 
initiatives.  At the same time, DUI must show it can engage 
in genuine dialogue and that it is prepared to reach 
compromises before negotiations conclude; it cannot assume 
it has veto power over legislative proposals. 
 
FRAMEWORK IMPLEMENTATION -- MISSION NOT YET ACCOMPLISHED 
 
¶4. (U) The new government has stated its commitment to full 
implementation of the 2001 Framework Agreement (FWA) that 
ended the inter-ethnic conflict in Macedonia that same 
year.  In fact, all FWA-related legislative requirements 
have been met, most having been passed by the previous 
government.  Implementation of decentralization (the 
devolution of power from the central government to local 
governments), and of equitable representation of ethnic 
minorities in public administration, were launched 
successfully a year ago.  The challenge for this government 
is to build on what was achieved by its predecessor and to 
 
SKOPJE 00001096  002 OF 003 
 
 
fully implement decentralization without excessive 
partisanship in the allocation of jobs or funds. Several 
FWA-related requirements -- including a law on languages -- 
remain to be completed, and the government must demonstrate 
results in implementing FWA-related reforms. 
 
NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP -- REFORMS MUTUALLY REINFORCING 
 
¶5. (SBU) The government has stated its commitment to NATO 
and EU membership as top foreign policy priorities, and is 
supported by opinion polls showing 90 percent or higher 
public support for membership in both organizations. 
Nevertheless, the difficulty the government has shown in 
managing effectively intra-coalition and 
government-opposition relations has hampered initial 
progress on the rule of law, judicial reform, and other 
political and economic criteria Macedonia needs to fulfill 
to be considered a strong candidate for membership in 
either organization. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Macedonia could be a competitive candidate for a 
NATO invitation at the next enlargement summit, given its 
strong performance on defense reforms and its contributions 
to NATO operations in Afghanistan.  Government 
interlocutors need to hear, however, that to achieve that 
goal the GOM must work effectively with DUI to overcome the 
current political impasse and find a mechanism for building 
broad consensus with other opposition members for economic 
and other NATO-related reforms.  In addition, the 
government must show concrete results in fighting 
corruption in a non-partisan manner, redouble efforts to 
combat trafficking in persons, and pass a religious freedom 
law that guarantees religious communities and groups the 
right to register and worship freely in Macedonia. (The 
current law, while enforced unevenly, allows the GOM to 
limit the number of confessions that can register as a 
religious community or group.  As a result, although the 
Macedonian Orthodox Church is registered as a religious 
community, the Serbian Orthodox Church cannot legally 
register as either a religious community or group.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) Although Macedonia received EU candidate status in 
December 2005, it has yet to receive an invitation from 
Brussels to begin accession negotiations.  The government 
received an assessment from the EU in early November on its 
progress in meeting the EU acquis.  That EU assessment 
pointed to the need for political consensus in pursuing 
reforms, especially in police and judicial reforms; 
continued implementation of the FWA; and the need to show 
results in combating corruption, as some of the challenges 
the country will need to overcome before it can expect to 
begin accession negotiations in the future. 
 
KOSOVO FINAL STATUS -- BORDER DEMARCATION AS PART OF FINAL 
STATUS SETTLEMENT 
 
¶8. (SBU) The government's position on Kosovo final status 
has been closely aligned with ours -- support for UN 
Special Envoy Ahtisaari and the Contact Group, for a 
settlement as soon as possible, and for resolution of the 
demarcation of the Macedonia-Kosovo border in the context 
of a final status settlement. (NOTE: The border was 
delineated, but not demarcated, in a 2001 agreement between 
Belgrade and Skopje, which Pristina rejects.)  The 
government has indicated it would be among the first to 
recognize an independent Kosovo in the event the border 
demarcation issue is resolved as part of a final status 
settlement.  Relations overall are good, with regular 
meetings between Skopje and Pristina and an interim free 
trade agreement signed between Macedonia and UNMIK/Pristina 
in 2005.  We encourage the government to continue its 
constructive support for the final status process, and to 
continue to adhere to the position that the border 
demarcation issue should be resolved in the context of a 
final status settlement. 
 
NAME DISPUTE -- CONTINUE UN PROCESS 
 
¶9. (SBU) Discussions between Greece and Macedonia on the 
dispute over the latter's right to use its constitutional 
 
SKOPJE 00001096  003 OF 003 
 
 
name -- Republic of Macedonia -- continue under UN 
auspices.  The GOM has reiterated its "dual name" proposal 
(a mutually agreed upon name for use in bilateral relations 
with Greece, and the constitutional name for all other 
bilateral relations and for use in multilateral fora) as 
the basis for further discussions with the Greek 
government.  Athens has rejected that proposal.  The USG 
recognized Macedonia's constitutional name in 2004 for use 
in our bilateral relations.  We continue to urge both sides 
to be flexible and to work toward compromise on this 
sensitive issue through participation in the talks under UN 
auspices in New York. 
 
ECONOMIC GROWTH -- NEED STABLE POLITICAL BASE 
 
¶10. (SBU) PM Gruevski's top-priority goal is fostering 
economic growth and development, a goal we share.  The GOM 
is aiming for a 6-8 percent annual GDP growth rate during 
its mandate, compared to the 4.0 to 4.5 percent rate it 
inherited from the previous government.  The government 
hopes to achieve that growth rate through tax cuts and a 
flat tax, through fiscal stimulus, and by attracting 
foreign direct investment.  Overall, the macro-economic 
climate remains positive, with low inflation and a stable 
exchange rate.  A US firm (Milwaukee-based Johnson 
Controls) recently broke ground for the first major 
greenfield investment in Macedonia's free trade zone near 
Skopje, a promising investment "coup" for Macedonia. 
Nevertheless, the government should accept that more robust 
economic growth requires the political stability that will 
accompany improved inter-ethnic relations and a more 
consensus-based approach to implementing reforms. 
MILOVANOVIC