VZCZCXRO0747
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #1095/01 3201209
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161209Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5431
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVJ/AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO 0212
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2085

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 001095 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE (PFEUFFER) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL DREIER'S VISIT, 
NOVEMBER 19-25 
 
 
¶1.    (U) Welcome to Macedonia! HDAC,s assistance to the 
Macedonian parliament, both the provision of IT equipment and 
the opportunity for a professional visit to the United States 
earlier this year, has made a real contribution here.  Your 
visit, nearly three months into the new government,s 
mandate, comes at the right time both to consolidate what has 
been achieved through the HDAC program to date and to deliver 
some important messages to the new Macedonian government 
(GOM). 
 
CORE MESSAGES 
 
¶2.    We believe the GOM should: 
 
--Pursue broad consultations and consensus-building with 
opposition parties on key legislation and implementation of 
reforms. 
 
--Demonstrate through results your commitment to 
implementation of the 2001 Framework Agreement (FWA), in 
close consultation with opposition parties and parties not in 
government. 
 
--Work for broad political consensus to implement your 
economic growth and reform agenda and to fulfill key criteria 
for NATO and EU membership (including fighting corruption in 
a non-partisan manner, combating trafficking in persons, and 
ensuring Macedonia meets international religious freedom 
standards). 
 
POLITICAL CONTEXT -- DIALOGUE INCHES FORWARD 
 
¶2. (SBU) The new inter-ethnic (ethnic Macedonian and ethnic 
Albanian) governing coalition headed by Prime Minister 
Gruevski was sworn-in on August 26.  The government has only 
just begun to implement some of its ambitious legislative and 
economic growth agenda.  Part of the reason for the slow 
start is that the government has been unable or unwilling so 
far to work effectively with the ethnic Albanian DUI 
party, which won the majority of eAlbanian votes in the July 
parliamentary elections but was not included in the governing 
coalition.  (NOTE: Having won the majority of eAlbanian 
votes, DUI considers itself "out of government" but not/not 
in the opposition, and refuses to use the word "opposition" 
to describe itself.)  Also hampering progress is the fact 
that the government has dismissed or transferred and demoted 
many civil servants.  While some replacements are 
well-qualified, many newly-emptied positions remain vacant, 
and some have been filled with neophytes. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The government and DUI have made pro forma efforts 
to discuss their differences, but the dialogue has not 
produced practical positive results.  The GOM should 
acknowledge that it must work differently with DUI which, 
given its eAlbanian majority support, cannot be considered 
just a "typical" opposition party.  Consultation and 
compromise with DUI on key legislative initiatives, 
especially those related to the Framework Agreement (FWA), 
must begin early on, and the government should demonstrate 
flexibility and generosity in reaching consensus on those 
initiatives.  At the same time, DUI must show it can engage 
in genuine dialogue and that it is prepared to reach 
compromises before negotiations conclude; it cannot assume it 
has veto power over legislative proposals. 
 
FRAMEWORK IMPLEMENTATION -- MISSION NOT YET ACCOMPLISHED 
 
¶4. (U) The new government has stated its commitment to full 
implementation of the 2001 Framework Agreement (FWA) that 
ended the inter-ethnic conflict in Macedonia that same year. 
In fact, all FWA-related legislative requirements have been 
met, most having been passed by the previous government. 
Implementation of decentralization (the devolution of power 
from the central government to local governments), and of 
equitable representation of ethnic minorities in public 
administration, were launched successfully a year ago.  The 
challenge for this government is to build on what was 
achieved by its predecessor and to fully implement 
decentralization without excessive partisanship in the 
allocation of jobs or funds. Several FWA-related requirements 
 
SKOPJE 00001095  002 OF 003 
 
 
-- including a law on languages -- remain to be completed, 
and the government must demonstrate results in implementing 
FWA-related reforms. 
 
NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP -- REFORMS MUTUALLY REINFORCING 
 
¶5. (SBU) The government has stated its commitment to NATO and 
EU membership as top foreign policy priorities, and is 
supported by opinion polls showing 90 percent or higher 
public support for membership in both organizations. 
Nevertheless, the difficulty the government has shown in 
managing effectively intra-coalition and 
government-opposition relations has hampered initial progress 
on the rule of law, judicial reform, and other political and 
economic criteria Macedonia needs to fulfill to be considered 
a strong candidate for membership in either organization. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Macedonia could be a competitive candidate for a 
NATO invitation at the next enlargement summit, given its 
strong performance on defense reforms and its contributions 
to NATO operations in Afghanistan.  Government interlocutors 
need to hear, however, that to achieve that goal the GOM must 
work effectively with DUI to overcome the current political 
impasse and find a mechanism for building broad consensus 
with other opposition members for economic and other 
NATO-related reforms.  In addition, the government must show 
concrete results in fighting corruption in a non-partisan 
manner, redouble efforts to combat trafficking in persons, 
and pass a religious freedom law that guarantees religious 
communities and groups the 
right to register and worship freely in Macedonia. (The 
current law, while enforced unevenly, allows the GOM to limit 
the number of confessions that can register as a religious 
community or group.  As a result, although the Macedonian 
Orthodox Church is registered as a religious community, the 
Serbian Orthodox Church cannot legally register as either a 
religious community or group.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) Although Macedonia received EU candidate status in 
December 2005, it has yet to receive an invitation from 
Brussels to begin accession negotiations.  The government 
received an assessment from the EU in early November on its 
progress in meeting the EU acquis.  That EU assessment 
pointed to the need for political consensus in pursuing 
reforms, especially in police and judicial reforms; continued 
implementation of the FWA; and the need to show results in 
combating corruption, as some of the challenges the country 
will need to overcome before it can expect to begin accession 
negotiations in the future. 
 
KOSOVO FINAL STATUS -- BORDER DEMARCATION AS PART OF FINAL 
STATUS SETTLEMENT 
 
¶8. (SBU) The government's position on Kosovo final status has 
been closely aligned with ours -- support for UN Special 
Envoy Ahtisaari and the Contact Group, for a settlement as 
soon as possible, and for resolution of the demarcation of 
the Macedonia-Kosovo border in the context of a final status 
settlement. (NOTE: The border was delineated, but not 
demarcated, in a 2001 agreement between Belgrade and Skopje, 
which Pristina rejects.)  The government has indicated it 
would be among the first to recognize an independent Kosovo 
in the event the border demarcation issue is resolved as part 
of a final status 
settlement.  Relations overall are good, with regular 
meetings between Skopje and Pristina and an interim free 
trade agreement signed between Macedonia and UNMIK/Pristina 
in 2005.  We encourage the government to continue its 
constructive support for the final status process, and to 
continue to adhere to the position that the border 
demarcation issue should be resolved in the context of a 
final status settlement. 
 
NAME DISPUTE -- CONTINUE UN PROCESS 
 
¶9. (SBU) Discussions between Greece and Macedonia on the 
dispute over the latter's right to use its constitutional 
name -- Republic of Macedonia -- continue under UN auspices. 
The GOM has reiterated its "dual name" proposal (a mutually 
agreed upon name for use in bilateral relations with Greece, 
 
SKOPJE 00001095  003 OF 003 
 
 
and the constitutional name for all other bilateral relations 
and for use in multilateral fora) as the basis for further 
discussions with the Greek government.  Athens has rejected 
that proposal.  The USG recognized Macedonia's constitutional 
name in 2004 for use in our bilateral relations.  We continue 
to urge both sides to be flexible and to work toward 
compromise on this sensitive issue through participation in 
the talks under UN auspices in New York. 
 
ECONOMIC GROWTH -- NEED STABLE POLITICAL BASE 
 
¶10. (SBU) PM Gruevski's top-priority goal is fostering 
economic growth and development, a goal we share.  The GOM is 
aiming for a 6-8 percent annual GDP growth rate during its 
mandate, compared to the 4.0 to 4.5 percent rate it inherited 
from the previous government.  The government hopes to 
achieve that growth rate through tax cuts and a flat tax, 
through fiscal stimulus, and by attracting foreign direct 
investment.  Overall, the macro-economic climate remains 
positive, with low inflation and a stable exchange rate.  A 
US firm (Milwaukee-based Johnson Controls) recently broke 
ground for the first major greenfield investment in 
Macedonia's free trade zone near Skopje, a promising 
investment "coup" for Macedonia. 
Nevertheless, the government should accept that more robust 
economic growth requires the political stability that will 
accompany improved inter-ethnic relations and a more 
consensus-based approach to implementing reforms. 
MILOVANOVIC